ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jevo]

12z ECMWF (Euro) +48 (looks like the pressure gradients are trying to squeeze through the pass there between haiti and cuba)

[SouthFLTropics]

That's an interesting frame there at +48 on the Euro...Looks like it is factoring in the interaction with the islands and it may shoot the Windward Passage. We get a center relocation to the north after the disruption and all bets are off with final track.

SFT

[wxwatcher1999]

12z ECMWF (Euro) +48

Getting close to Jamaica

[KWT]

Hmmm ECM ALSO shows that jump NW between 24-48hrs, nearly all the models forecast that jump, thats most interesting!

[BigB0882]

Seems like quite a jump to the NW between 24 and 48 hours. Curious if this run goes even farther East.

[SouthFLTropics]

Trough looks to be digging from the midwest...All about timing as usual.

SFT

[wxman76]

ECMWF 48 hr 500 mb low just west of Haiti near the channel. So if the low level center is that far north it is still seriously decoupled. The piece by Jamaica is interesting too. IMO model having a hard time figuring out where the storm is going. Normally you can look aloft but with storm they don't line up very well!

[KWT]

I'll have to wait for a while but the passage and evolution from 24hrs to 48hrs on the ECM will make for a most interesting watch!

[ROCK]

Hmmm ECM ALSO shows that jump NW between 24-48hrs, nearly all the models forecast that jump, thats most interesting!

one of the many circulations gets hung up in that 10K ft mountain and sucks it right in....

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm ECM ALSO shows that jump NW between 24-48hrs, nearly all the models forecast that jump, thats most interesting!

its do to land interaction and the center likely being disrupted. its normal. just look at the broad movement till it re emerges.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf higher resolution

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[meriland23]

can someone simplify what exactly is the issue with this skip/hop/jump between 24 and 48?

[Jevo]

12z ECMWF (Euro) +72

[ROCK]

ECMWF 48 hr 500 mb low just west of Haiti near the channel. So if the low level center is that far north it is still seriously decoupled. The piece by Jamaica is interesting too. IMO model having a hard time figuring out where the storm is going. Normally you can look aloft but with storm they don't line up very well!

agreed...not fully decoupled but severely tilted....the MLC is south of the Mona Passage and the LLC is in the passage....

[SouthFLTropics]

ECMWF 48 hr 500 mb low just west of Haiti near the channel. So if the low level center is that far north it is still seriously decoupled. The piece by Jamaica is interesting too. IMO model having a hard time figuring out where the storm is going. Normally you can look aloft but with storm they don't line up very well!

agreed...not fully decoupled but severely tilted....the MLC is south of the Mona Passage and the LLC is in the passage....

Correction - That is the Windward Passage...Mona Passage is between DR and PR.

SFT

[KWT]

Hmmm ECM ALSO shows that jump NW between 24-48hrs, nearly all the models forecast that jump, thats most interesting!

its do to land interaction and the center likely being disrupted. its normal. just look at the broad movement till it re emerges.

Yep indeed, its just interesting to see how the models have clocked onto it, not seen that before on them.

Anyway ECM 72hrs heading about 285 and not that far away from the Caribbean sea, over S.Cuba.

[ROCK]

ECMWF 48 hr 500 mb low just west of Haiti near the channel. So if the low level center is that far north it is still seriously decoupled. The piece by Jamaica is interesting too. IMO model having a hard time figuring out where the storm is going. Normally you can look aloft but with storm they don't line up very well!

agreed...not fully decoupled but severely tilted....the MLC is south of the Mona Passage and the LLC is in the passage....

Correction - That is the Windward Passage...Mona Passage is between DR and PR.

SFT

still a passage!!!

[JPmia]

Hmmm ECM ALSO shows that jump NW between 24-48hrs, nearly all the models forecast that jump, thats most interesting!

one of the many circulations gets hung up in that 10K ft mountain and sucks it right in....

yeah that's what i will be watching for.. sometimes the mountains can kink up forecast tracks like center reformations.. sort of like that major did when it danced around Jamaica .. forgot the name of that one.

[meriland23]

Hmmm ECM ALSO shows that jump NW between 24-48hrs, nearly all the models forecast that jump, thats most interesting!

its do to land interaction and the center likely being disrupted. its normal. just look at the broad movement till it re emerges.

Yep indeed, its just interesting to see how the models have clocked onto it, not seen that before on them.

Anyway ECM 72hrs heading about 285 and not that far away from the Caribbean sea, over S.Cuba.

So how does thsi effect its path

[wxman76]

Look at the 72 hr ECMWF 500 mb low. now the storm is stacked. not so sure the recovery is that fast. so it looks like the 48 hr sfc was disrupted bu some mountains. Totally normal. Looks like the average keeps it along the south coast of Cuba for now anyways. Then again a weak storm can recover much more quickly than a fully mature storm, which may never recover fully.