ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Not good news as we are waiting to see how the storm is doing but the plane apparently is climbing as it may have technnical problems .

[TCmet]

Looks like Recon is bugging out and going home early...

000
URNT15 KNHC 231938
AF300 0709A ISAAC HDOB 31 20120823
192000 1540N 06635W 8431 01519 //// +160 //// 013003 006 027 011 01
192030 1539N 06634W 8437 01509 //// +146 //// 341008 013 033 012 01
192100 1537N 06633W 8421 01531 //// +139 //// 251018 023 033 034 01
192130 1536N 06633W 8441 01509 //// +137 //// 214025 029 042 054 05
192200 1535N 06631W 8418 01532 //// +138 //// 208025 032 /// /// 05
192230 1537N 06630W 8429 01516 //// +138 //// 202025 028 067 052 01
192300 1538N 06630W 8422 01529 //// +140 //// 200023 032 073 033 05
192330 1540N 06630W 8443 01513 //// +154 //// 137010 017 057 020 01
192400 1542N 06630W 8393 01565 //// +163 //// 113008 010 030 005 05
192430 1542N 06632W 8077 01886 //// +130 //// 091014 017 025 008 05
192500 1543N 06634W 7717 02268 //// +128 //// 087020 021 /// /// 05
192530 1544N 06636W 7375 02657 //// +108 //// 070016 020 /// /// 05
192600 1545N 06638W 7062 03020 //// +088 //// 073021 023 009 002 01
192630 1545N 06640W 6968 03130 //// +085 //// 078022 023 008 001 01
192700 1546N 06642W 6916 03197 //// +084 //// 078023 025 014 001 01
192730 1547N 06644W 6661 03518 0031 +080 +080 084027 028 014 000 01
192800 1548N 06646W 6408 03840 0033 +060 +060 078026 026 009 001 05
192830 1548N 06648W 6138 04195 0024 +040 +040 067026 026 /// /// 05
192900 1549N 06650W 5842 04571 9989 +020 +020 068030 031 /// /// 05
192930 1550N 06651W 5618 04889 //// -005 //// 065033 035 /// /// 05
$$
;

[meriland23]

cat 4 or 5 if it heads to NO? Anyone else think this is porky pies? lol

[hurricanes1234]

I have to admit, Isaac has been a real underachiever vs. my expectations. Sure he has had some obstacles to overcome, but any self-respecting tropical system should have been able to make the most of it and beaten those back. I was expecting this to be a hurricane by now. What a mess this thing has turned out to be! LOL

I understand what you're trying to say - that's why Ernesto is Isaac's brother. They suffered from the same problems - poor internal structures. Still quite impressive on satellite imagery, though. Don't give up on Isaac, yet, Ernesto wasn't doing well in the eastern Caribbean, but he managed to become an 85 mph hurricane towards the end.

Not an official forecast - just an opinion.

[otowntiger]

Saved loop

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5836/zzvisanimatedi.gif]

Could be an illusion, but looks like it's rotating WSW.

More importantly it looks to me that Isaac is getting even less organized and weaker, if that's possible. He is one pitiful tropical storm wannabee at this point. He's plenty big but what a mess! Not going to be a hurricane in my opinion before Haiti and any significant strengthening after clearing land would be a big surprise at this point. I think wxman57 said the same thing yesterday.

[meriland23]

Looks like Recon is bugging out and going home early...

000
URNT15 KNHC 231938
AF300 0709A ISAAC HDOB 31 20120823
192000 1540N 06635W 8431 01519 //// +160 //// 013003 006 027 011 01
192030 1539N 06634W 8437 01509 //// +146 //// 341008 013 033 012 01
192100 1537N 06633W 8421 01531 //// +139 //// 251018 023 033 034 01
192130 1536N 06633W 8441 01509 //// +137 //// 214025 029 042 054 05
192200 1535N 06631W 8418 01532 //// +138 //// 208025 032 /// /// 05
192230 1537N 06630W 8429 01516 //// +138 //// 202025 028 067 052 01
192300 1538N 06630W 8422 01529 //// +140 //// 200023 032 073 033 05
192330 1540N 06630W 8443 01513 //// +154 //// 137010 017 057 020 01
192400 1542N 06630W 8393 01565 //// +163 //// 113008 010 030 005 05
192430 1542N 06632W 8077 01886 //// +130 //// 091014 017 025 008 05
192500 1543N 06634W 7717 02268 //// +128 //// 087020 021 /// /// 05
192530 1544N 06636W 7375 02657 //// +108 //// 070016 020 /// /// 05
192600 1545N 06638W 7062 03020 //// +088 //// 073021 023 009 002 01
192630 1545N 06640W 6968 03130 //// +085 //// 078022 023 008 001 01
192700 1546N 06642W 6916 03197 //// +084 //// 078023 025 014 001 01
192730 1547N 06644W 6661 03518 0031 +080 +080 084027 028 014 000 01
192800 1548N 06646W 6408 03840 0033 +060 +060 078026 026 009 001 05
192830 1548N 06648W 6138 04195 0024 +040 +040 067026 026 /// /// 05
192900 1549N 06650W 5842 04571 9989 +020 +020 068030 031 /// /// 05
192930 1550N 06651W 5618 04889 //// -005 //// 065033 035 /// /// 05
$$
;

Simplify? I am just a worried simpleton here trying to learn lol

[otowntiger]

[quote="TCmet"]Looks like Recon is bugging out and going home early...

Probably got bored with this pitiful storm!

[Ptarmigan]

cat 4 or 5 if it heads to NO? Anyone else think this is porky pies? lol

The Gulf of Mexico is quite warm with the Loop Current. If conditions are right, yes. Also, if Isaac went between Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula where the water is warm and has deep layers of warm water compared to the Gulf of Mexico.

[rainstorm]

cat 4 or 5 if it heads to NO? Anyone else think this is porky pies? lol

personally, i think if it does head into the gom and strikes the central gulf coast it has every possibility of rapid deepening.

[KWT]

Mighty shame there that recon looks like they are lifting out, we need all the help we can get with discovering what on earth is happening in the lower levels.

[TCmet]

Simplify? I am just a worried simpleton here trying to learn lol

The plane is ascending and heading back to base, presumably after some type of technical difficulty (either that or they only planned two center passes, which is possible because they took off from Florida... a long flight home!)

[tolakram]

Similar-sized Gilbert took forever to get his act together in the Eastern Caribbean. He was a dumbbelling oblong mess. (He went on to strike Jamaica as a cat-2, then exploded to cat-5 before hitting the Yucatan.)

Do you have a reference for this similarity? I find:

GILBERT
TD - Sept 8
TS - Sept 9
Cat 1 - Sept 10
Cat 3 - Sept 11
Cat 5 - Sept 13

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

and

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim01.gif

No mention of structural issues.

I was 25 years old in 1988, can't remember much from those years.

[rainstorm]

yea, i see little in common with gilbert, yet i find frederick somewhat interesting. at some point isaac will get a central core going and if it does it over the se GOM a cat4 isnt unrealistic.

[Ptarmigan]

Similar-sized Gilbert took forever to get his act together in the Eastern Caribbean. He was a dumbbelling oblong mess. (He went on to strike Jamaica as a cat-2, then exploded to cat-5 before hitting the Yucatan.)

Do you have a reference for this similarity? I find:

GILBERT
TD - Sept 8
TS - Sept 9
Cat 1 - Sept 10
Cat 3 - Sept 11
Cat 5 - Sept 13

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

and

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim01.gif

No mention of structural issues.

I was 25 years old in 1988, can't remember much from those years.

Gilbert was a very large storm. In fact the radius of outer closed isobar was quite large. Up to 555 nautical miles before it intensified!

ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt

[KBBOCA]

Apologies for an off-topic post, but hurricane fans may want to check out this astounding image of Typhoon Bolaven in the W Pac with - 90 degrees C cloud tops.

Incredible!
viewtopic.php?p=2256583#p2256583

Ok. I'll shut up now. Time for me to take a break before the 5 p.m. advisory package is out!

[meriland23]

cat 4 or 5 if it heads to NO? Anyone else think this is porky pies? lol

personally, i think if it does head into the gom and strikes the central gulf coast it has every possibility of rapid deepening.

Nothing is out of the question for sure, that would be interesting. But it is safe to assume that land interraction is on the likely side, which hinders or weakens.. don't see how it would have enough time to get up to THAT strength, especially given the fact it is barely hanging on as it is right now. Maybe a weak cat 3 I assumed.

[JamesCaneTracker]

cat 4 or 5 if it heads to NO? Anyone else think this is porky pies? lol

personally, i think if it does head into the gom and strikes the central gulf coast it has every possibility of rapid deepening.

Nothing is out of the question for sure, that would be interesting. But it is safe to assume that land interraction is on the likely side, which hinders or weakens.. don't see how it would have enough time to get up to THAT strength, especially given the fact it is barely hanging on as it is right now. Maybe a weak cat 3 I assumed.

Well yes she was strong upon entering the GoM then what Isaac is however Katrina went from a strong Tropical storm after crossing Florida to a Cat 5 in the GoM and we ALL know the kind of Damage she did. I'm not saying that's going to happen here but Tropical Storms most certainly can go from Tropical Storm to Cat 5 Hurricanes in the GoM depending on conditions, speed, and all kinds of other factors!

[cycloneye]

Saved San Juan long range radar loop.

[Stormcenter]

Where is the center....seriously?

Saved San Juan long range radar loop.

[Ikester]

Saved San Juan long range radar loop.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2zrkfo6.gif

IMO, this radar image is telling. First thing, this is evidence to me that Isaac remains poorly organized. It appears as tho the you have rain bands that are moving in different directions. You have what appears to be a fading CDO south of PR which is heading due west and other rain bands that are moving NW or NNW that appears to be initated due to outflow boundaries. You could also make the argument that there appears to be a vort max just south-southwest of PR if you watch carefully.