ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[wkwally]

well I am off to bed as I think it could be differant tomorrow. if this is going north it will be good news for un down here in deep South Texas and the RGV

[bamajammer4eva]

No change to JBs idea though he bragged about predicting a TX landfall days before the NHC did

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
There is no change in my idea, except to say the increased threat to se louisiana is disturbing I dont believe tracks off to ne or e

[Texashawk]

Center is starting to be wrapped up - you can see it in long-range radar from KMOB. Also, the northward motion seems to have stopped for now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MOB&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[HouTXmetro]

Don't be fooled by the displaced convection. the Center is still exposed on only slightly east of the NHC projection. For the most part she is still on track.

[Janie2006]

*smacks head on desk*

I'm at a loss for words right now. It's the tropics and I shouldn't be, but I am. Sure, sure, more runs of the models, please, but this is just mad right now.

[ozonepete]

the Euro really changed

Wow, yeah. It shifted from Texas to a northwest path into Louisiana! Wonder what the NHC will do with this info?

[ROCK]

the Euro really changed

Wow, yeah. It shifted from Texas to a northwest path into Louisiana! Wonder what the NHC will do with this info?

JMO, they will move the cone up the coast to compensate for the latest runs. Pretty straight forward forecast for now.....

[ozonepete]

the Euro really changed

Wow, yeah. It shifted from Texas to a northwest path into Louisiana! Wonder what the NHC will do with this info?

JMO, they will move the cone up the coast to compensate for the latest runs. Pretty straight forward forecast for now.....

Yeah, have to agree. That would be the smart move. But if the Euro sticks to that on tomorrows run and the GFS shifts into agreement with it, Texas is out of the game.

[wkwally]

the Euro really changed

Wow, yeah. It shifted from Texas to a northwest path into Louisiana! Wonder what the NHC will do with this info?

JMO, they will move the cone up the coast to compensate for the latest runs. Pretty straight forward forecast for now.....

IMO there will be a big change in the 8AM advisory

[wkwally]

It will make me real happy if Texas is out of it and from what I am seeing New Orleans is under the gun IMO

[wkwally]

I still do not like the NAM but it is an outlier and maybe the GFS is also the outlier model in this one. Going to have to see what the boys at the NHS see tomorrow

[southerngale]

Wow, yeah. It shifted from Texas to a northwest path into Louisiana! Wonder what the NHC will do with this info?

JMO, they will move the cone up the coast to compensate for the latest runs. Pretty straight forward forecast for now.....

IMO there will be a big change in the 8AM advisory

They make track changes with full advisories only (5am edt, 11am edt, 5pm edt, 11pm edt), but they don't usually make drastic changes in track. They'll likely shift it a little further north/east and then wait on future model runs, and adjust as necessary.

[ozonepete]

They make track changes with full advisories only (5am edt, 11am edt, 5pm edt, 11pm edt), but they don't usually make drastic changes in track. They'll likely shift it a little further north/east and then wait on future model runs, and adjust as necessary.

Thanks for the clarification, southerngale! I'm gonna stay up for the 5AM just because there seems to be some serious changes the NHC has to incorporate, especially the more northward movement over the last few hours and the pretty dramatic change in the Euro model forecast. Do you know who's up for the 5AM disco?

[ROCK]

It will make me real happy if Texas is out of it and from what I am seeing New Orleans is under the gun IMO

Make you real happy? I do not understand that statement.... NO is under the gun based on the cone of uncertanity which basically has the whole NGOM included...since you are fairly new here I will cut you some slack. Please understand that a trend is not set by one run. It takes consecutive runs to flag a trend.....

[wkwally]

They make track changes with full advisories only (5am edt, 11am edt, 5pm edt, 11pm edt), but they don't usually make drastic changes in track. They'll likely shift it a little further north/east and then wait on future model runs, and adjust as necessary.

Thanks for the clarification, southerngale! I'm gonna stay up for the 5AM just because there seems to be some serious changes the NHC has to incorporate, especially the more northward movement over the last few hours and the pretty dramatic change in the Euro model forecast. Do you know who's up for the 5AM disco?

LOL none down here maybe across the border in Mexico. Sorry for the time of track changes but what the hey got to get a little excited about this as it does throw a wrench in most of the dihard trackers.

[wkwally]

Well I am going to set the alarm for 5AM and see what happens.THis could be big or it could be nothing as I have watched this many times before when the modles keep everyone guessing. Just as long as it stays out of the Brownsville area for now. Maybethe next one I will be more excited about the possibility of one comming here like Dolly and Hermine

[wkwally]

can tell it is late cannot even spell right

[djmikey]

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[Bluefrog]

Amen Janie ...... gonna be interesting for us on MS Coast if a trend to right continues in models. ugggggg

[Evil Jeremy]

And the NHC is now in "model catch up mode":

HOWEVER...THE
0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE
NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.