ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

It's like it is a weak Tropical Storm inside a Tropical Wave, quite strange!

[KWT]

Superb spot Ikester, I can see it now on the loops I've been watching, the cloud deck has thinned enough to see the slight west drift of the low level clouds, probably near 17N.

What a horrible mess!!

[Dean4Storms]

Ahh, A small peak at the center right at 15N 67W....heading WNW...Well south of the NHC Forecast Point!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Which matches up well with long range radar out of PR....


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... A&loop=yes

[chrisnnavarre]

Ahh, A small peak at the center right at 15N 67W....heading WNW...Well south of the NHC Forecast Point!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I see the same thing....well south of forecast point and moving generally westward.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very poorly organized indeed:

[pcolaman]

Where is the center....seriously?

Saved San Juan long range radar loop.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2zrkfo6.gif

If you look at the radar u can see 2 circulations of storms but look at it as if tilted or 3 -d

[Dean4Storms]

Saved San Juan long range radar loop.

http://i45.tinypic.com/2zrkfo6.gif

If you follow it here on this loop you can clearly see it is gaining more latitude. How long that occurs is the big question.

The center is right under that blob of constant convection that comes up from the bottom center. Clearly rotating and everything else whizzing around it.

[otowntiger]

Superb spot Ikester, I can see it now on the loops I've been watching, the cloud deck has thinned enough to see the slight west drift of the low level clouds, probably near 17N.

What a horrible mess!!

Dare I use the "p" word (as in "poof"!?). Which of the models have been trying to kill this thing off or at least make it into pretty much a disturbance? It seems to me that right now its just a strong wave with lots of disorganized convection. Is it possible for the NHC to downgrade it at this point inspite of all the hoopla?

[cycloneye]

At this rate it may reach the Yucatan Penninsula.

[BigB0882]

If you follow it here on this loop you can clearly see it is gaining more latitude. How long that occurs is the big question.

I thought it looked like it was gaining latitude but sometimes those radar images can work like an optical illusion and fool you into seeing things that aren't actually happening, especially when you aren't getting the entire picture but just some of the storm caught on radar. Not saying that is happening here but just be cautious.

[pgoss11]

Superb spot Ikester, I can see it now on the loops I've been watching, the cloud deck has thinned enough to see the slight west drift of the low level clouds, probably near 17N.

What a horrible mess!!

Dare I use the "p" word (as in "poof"!?). Which of the models have been trying to kill this thing off or at least make it into pretty much a disturbance? It seems to me that right now its just a strong wave with lots of disorganized convection. Is it possible for the NHC to downgrade it at this point inspite of all the hoopla?

Would be the most frustrating bust ever.

[Kingarabian]

Needs to hurry up and deepen some if it wants to be picked up lol.

[SFLcane]

At this rate it may reach the Yucatan Penninsula.

Yep was just thinking the same thing. This year has produced some of the most annoying systems I've ever seen. They just continue to struggle.

[KWT]

That microwave imagery clearly shows a circulation south of PR around 17N. Another center also pretty obvious down near 15N which goes along with what other people are seeing.

Such a mess, the models develop the 17N vort area from what I've seen, at least according to the hurricane models...

[adam0983]

This storm is just a big dud. Just an opinion not a forcast.

[BigB0882]

Several days ago I made a joke about waiting for the models to show it hitting Mexico. This was when most models still showed it recurving out at sea. That would be pretty funny if it ended up happening.

[SFLcane]

That microwave imagery clearly shows a circulation south of PR around 17N. Another center also pretty obvious down near 15N which goes along with what other people are seeing.

Such a mess, the models develop the 17N vort area from what I've seen, at least according to the hurricane models...

If that's the case there might be some changes long range if this thing ever decides to strengthen.

[Tireman4]

This storm is just a big dud. Just an opinion not a forcast.

Wow. Bold statement. I am thinking, wait until Saturday or Sunday to call it dead, but that is me...



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[hurricaneCW]

Shouldn't we all be happy if it turns out to be a complete dud. This season, the big storms are beyond the tropics.

[pgoss11]

That microwave imagery clearly shows a circulation south of PR around 17N. Another center also pretty obvious down near 15N which goes along with what other people are seeing.

Such a mess, the models develop the 17N vort area from what I've seen, at least according to the hurricane models...

So the models runs we have seen have used that 17N vort area? Wow! If the 15N vort became dominant, tracks would go way west..wouldn't they?