ATL: ISAAC - Models

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meriland23
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2321 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:22 pm

exact same track as yesterdays 12z run

12z yesterday 96 hr

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12 today 72 hr


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12z yesterday 120 hr

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12z today 96 hr

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#2322 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:23 pm

EURO is west.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2323 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:23 pm

weakness is closing up. Wheres the SW? ....Gandalf - thou shall not pass...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2324 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:23 pm

day 5

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2325 Postby wxman76 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:23 pm

If the Euro is right and it gets there threre really will be nothing to stop it. Almost Central GOM. 500 MB heights now highest over Georgia. Even bigger ridge building on top in the Plains. Leads credence to the GFS slowing his movement. Agree Meriland23 looks more like 22/12z Euro.
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#2326 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:26 pm

Yikes. Will it stall and blow up before nailing someone? Anywhere along the Gulf is clearly still in play.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2327 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:27 pm

wow stout ridging....well it is August still....I wouldnt think the GFS would have underestimated the ridge by that much....its like the entire upper air dynamics changed in 12 hours out 120hr per the EURO....interesting
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#2328 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:27 pm

more west at 120 hrs vs yesterday 12z and todays 00z run
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#2329 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:27 pm

Well the ECM sends this into the Central Gulf, strengthening system.

Weakness is closing up but there should be enough of a connection if the system is strong by that point to slowly take it north/NW.
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#2330 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:28 pm

I'm curious as to what the models are seeing that I'm missing. This trough that has been camped out over North/Central FLA and the Gulf does not seem to want to budge. The flow for us here on East/Central FLA has been from SW to NE over the past 4-5 days which tells me that high pressure is not in charge here and is pushed off to the East. Maybe it will change but it looks like we are going to get storms again today moving from SW to NE.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2331 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:28 pm

very very weak steering currents
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2332 Postby wxman76 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:29 pm

Meriland 23 thanks for the comparisons. You are AWESOME! If this thing blows up though and stalls it will likely reach max intensity before a landfall and actually weaken some coming onshore, but still a MAJOR hurricane hit.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2333 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:29 pm

138hr moving wnw in the GOM.....SW is flatter than a roadkill in Texas.....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2334 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:29 pm

ROCK wrote:138hr moving wnw in the GOM.....SW is flatter than a roadkill in Texas.....


... and speaking of Texas ... :wink:
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#2335 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:30 pm

Not sold on any of these model runs at all. IMO
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#2336 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:30 pm

144 hr taking its sweet time.. come on! Me impatient! :P
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2337 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:30 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:very very weak steering currents


This is exactly what bmt/pt Arthur local met said that worries him
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2338 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:30 pm

Stormlover2012 wrote:very very weak steering currents


yeah all the models slow it down as it approaches the gulf coast. it will be interesting to see what happens
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2339 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:30 pm

Portastorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:138hr moving wnw in the GOM.....SW is flatter than a roadkill in Texas.....


... and speaking of Texas ... :wink:




yep...but I aint sayin nothing!!
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#2340 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:31 pm

12z ECMWF (Euro) +144

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