ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Nederlander]

Ernesto is going to have to maintain a heading of no more than about 275-280 to make Belize. I don't see this happening since its current heading is already 285. Seems more likely a northern yucatan threat..

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[ROCK]

Ivan's graphic clearly shows how recent trend has been Ernesto jogging more NW than WNW. These jogs I believe will continue, as Ernesto should gradually strengthen and stair step towards the northern end of the forecast cone.

I agree....already moving wnw and I believe will keep tracking this way...IMO it will go under JAM but not by much...

[LSU2001]

Hey Rock,
Think we will see another Jamaica jump ala Ivan 2004
Tim

[wxman57]

I'm measuring almost a due west movement over the last 4-6 hrs (just slightly north of due west). Don't confuse building squalls northward as movement in that direction.

[RL3AO]

Pretty nice banding feature setting up.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WHICH WAS MEASURED AS THE PLANE
WAS DEPARTING THE CYCLONE.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

I'm measuring almost a due west movement over the last 4-6 hrs (just slightly north of due west). Don't confuse building squalls northward as movement in that direction.

The official word confirms.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 69.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[HurricaneAndrew92]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES...WHICH WAS MEASURED AS THE PLANE
WAS DEPARTING THE CYCLONE.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm measuring almost a due west movement over the last 4-6 hrs (just slightly north of due west). Don't confuse building squalls northward as movement in that direction.

Edit: I saw the data, nvm.

[Ivanhater]

Microwave showing Ernie wrapping up nicely. If organization continues, I would suspect a northerly turn into the Gulf given the weakness. The models that do show strengthening in the Caribbean show this as well. We will see

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Near 50kt winds...not sure if rain contaminated.
165330 1602N 06724W 8425 01601 0164 +121 +073 147046 046 050 021 00

[Shuriken]

NRL graphic of the NHC forecast:

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty nice banding feature setting up.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... 120804.jpg

Im not sure what to think of that. It does look nice, but thats quite a bit southeast of where the center is. Just goes to show how much is left for Ernesto to do to get is act together before he can really take off. Its major structural changes like this why I say we need to wait another day or so before we see anything dramatic happen, despite his current appearance.

[cycloneye]

Pretty nice banding feature setting up.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... 120804.jpg

Im not sure what to think of that. It does look nice, but thats quite a bit southeast of where the center is. Just goes to show how much is left for Ernesto to do to get is act together before he can really take off. Its major structural changes like this why I say we need to wait another day or so before we see anything dramatic happen, despite his current appearance.

That was a little bit old at 8:15 AM EDT.

[brunota2003]

Microwave showing Ernie wrapping up nicely. If organization continues, I would suspect a northerly turn into the Gulf given the weakness. The models that do show strengthening in the Caribbean show this as well. We will see

Too bad CIMSS MIMIC-TC hasn't updated since 10:45Z (or 6:45 am EDT). People keep posting the loops, but nothing new yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty nice banding feature setting up.

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... 120804.jpg

Im not sure what to think of that. It does look nice, but thats quite a bit southeast of where the center is. Just goes to show how much is left for Ernesto to do to get is act together before he can really take off. Its major structural changes like this why I say we need to wait another day or so before we see anything dramatic happen, despite his current appearance.

That was a little bit old at 8:15 AM EDT.

Oh, thanks haha that explains a lot. Im curious to know what it looks like now then.

[Shuriken]

High-resolution 1km zoom (click bar to view full-size):

[wxman57]

Interesting feature about 100 miles west of the center. It's rotating southward. Find a visible loop of it and you'll see a rotation, too.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ernesto is alternating between west and west-northwest while intensifying this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

I've seen developing cyclones with a hazy appearance become monsters before.