ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

I'm in the 5pm cone...time to pull out the MGC hurricane voodoo doll and start sticking needles in it! Sure would be nice if Isaac poofs...the satellite presentation looks a bit ragged this afternoon...looks to be entraining dry air. I'm thinking the broad center will pass south of Hispanolia and closer to Jamacia before crossing Cuba. Hopefully Isaac remains disorganized at the surface....waiting on the Gulfsteam data so the models can nail the eventual track and final landfall along the north Gulf coast.....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[KWT]

Decent winds there SDF!

RI may sound premature, but I think the NHC are right to at least mention it as a possiblity IF it develops an inner core...

However right now clearly is something is stopping it from developing a good solid low level circulation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

we've seen many storms struggle and look awful for long periods of time and then all of a sudden a switch turns on and they go nuts. i wouldn't be surprised if that happens at some point with Isaac and it rapidly intensifies. Never turn your back on a storm during the heart of hurricane season. and since we're near the anniversary of Andrew, it's worth remembering that that storm struggled and its survival for a time appeared doubtful.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree. Anytime now i think it will. The longer it takes the better. Eventually it will get its act together

[SouthDadeFish]

Decent winds there SDF!

RI may sound premature, but I think the NHC are right to at least mention it as a possiblity IF it develops an inner core...

However right now clearly is something is stopping it from developing a good solid low level circulation.

It also is right next to a recent flare up of convection. In five minutes we'll know if that is the start a trend. Also pressure there down to 1004mb.

[Stormcenter]

In reference to Jim Cantore's tweet, he might as well throw in Texas in there too since he's obviously covering almost all of the GOM coastline.

I see some people saying that they are frustrated by this storm. To me this is why I'm here, I love the uncertainty, the different model output every 6 hours, and the chance to take a swing at my own forecast in the midst of such uncertainty. if it were easy, we wouldn't need pros

With that said, I don't know how many of you use Twitter, but there is a lot of good information coming out of there right now by the NHC, NOAA, HRD, and other sources such as Jim Cantore and Brian Norcross. These are recent tweets from the Hashtag #isaac

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
@NHCDirector When model runs reflect G-IV data? Data will get into 00Z (8 pm ET) runs, used for 5 am advisory.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Would not be surprised to see the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and even parts of LA including New Orleans in the new cone from NHC.

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Some FL chances of tropical storm force next 5 days: Key West 39% Miami 33% Tampa 24% Cocoa Beach 18% http://ow.ly/1Osl7i #Isaac

NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami
Don't focus too much on exact forecast track this far out. Average errors in extended range well over 100 miles!

[hurricanes1234]

Still at the same 40 mph. I like the fact that this season experienced early bursts of activity, but most storms suddenly began unexpected weakening trends over very favorable conditions, which bores me to death. Isaac is resembling one of those storms - he's over 29°C waters and very light wind shear, yet he fails to strengthen, even the least bit. Now, don't mix up what I'm saying, this is good he's not strengthening, because it would mean trouble for Haiti and the places he's nearing, but it would be nice to see him achieve something we don't expect, then he could weaken thereafter - it would be better if he does so - as long as he achieves something unexpected - like last year's Hurricane Ophelia or 2010's Hurricane Julia.

Again, please feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here - since this is my ameteur view on the way things are going, and in no way, shape or form, an official forecast.

[CaneCurious]

Heard recon found winds of 50mph(I assume it was mph) upgrade at 8?

Upgrade to what? Wind speed is playing second fiddle to finding a decent COC right now.

[meriland23]

I do keep seeing on here, people kind of pouting over it possibly going 'poof', while others hope for it and/or get upset over the others morbid lack of satisfaction. Kind of funny how the same people that shake the finger are the ones that hope for something in the beginning. I think it all boils down to, most of us would love to see what mother nature can do, something incredible in our life time, and it is interesting and fun to track. It is the lives at stake and loss of property and memories that are what we really wish was not in play.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Gotta agree Jevo, this is why we are here. All the variables, the uncertainty. The nuances of each storm. The mystery is highest at formation and over structure. I am not settled on a solution on this one althugh forecast skill has gone way up in past couple years. Even at that the model accuracy as tracked is only in the 30% range this far out from the GOM. tomorrow SFL shoudl be firming up. Let's see what the dirurnal cycle does tonight. I would guess we will be looking at a much stronger and organized system by 05:00 tomorrow.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is isaac going to end up going west of Jamaica?

[bucman1]

What are the chances of center reformation after cuba ?

[tropicwatch]

Some nice towers building on the west and north sides.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[KWT]

Still at the same 40 mph. I like the fact that this season experienced early bursts of activity, but most storms suddenly began unexpected weakening trends over very favorable conditions, which bores me to death. Isaac is resembling one of those storms - he's over 29°C waters and very light wind shear, yet he fails to strengthen, even the least bit. Now, don't mix up what I'm saying, this is good he's not strengthening, because it would mean trouble for Haiti and the places he's nearing, but it would be nice to see him achieve something we don't expect, then he could weaken thereafter - it would be better if he does so - as long as he achieves something unexpected - like last year's Hurricane Ophelia or 2010's Hurricane Julia.

Conditions aren't that great at the moment, there is still clearly some shear on it, there is a fairly decent amount of dry air being injested into the circulation, and its been suffering badly with competing circulations and not being virtically stacked. The NHC do think this will all come together at some point, its just a case of when.

[wxman76]

For me Isaac staying weak scares me more than seeing it ramp up. First of all Hispanola and Cuba will be less destructive to a weak storm than a mature storm. Second the track pushes west into very high heat content water. If it tracks 50 miles off florida, friction will keep its intensification down, but over the open Gulf that's scary. Hey anyone remember the EUro a few days ago showing a wave near Cuba not developing? Maybe it knew something then even when it was day 10. Just something to chew on!

[SouthDadeFish]

Anticyclone now in a very favorable position with wind shear <5 knots over a large area of the system:

[BensonTCwatcher]

It looks like we will finally see a center reformation much further south based on sat presentation. AT lest from the last cebetr position. The souther portion of broad circ looks to me to be taking over based on the bands and inflow pattern. 15N 67.5 W looks like the MLC is sinking to the surface. note the depression in clouds last few frames. Almost a decoupled then reformed look (edited due to typing interference form my fingers)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html

[chrisnnavarre]

Looks as though he's starting to at least lean towards the northwest now. Better organized, minute by minute at least the way I see it. Also still looks to pass well south of NHC forecast point.

[chrisnnavarre]

For me Isaac staying weak scares me more than seeing it ramp up. First of all Hispanola and Cuba will be less destructive to a weak storm than a mature storm. Second the track pushes west into very high heat content water. If it tracks 50 miles off florida, friction will keep its intensification down, but over the open Gulf that's scary. Hey anyone remember the EUro a few days ago showing a wave near Cuba not developing? Maybe it knew something then even when it was day 10. Just something to chew on!

Ding, Ding, Ding...you nailed it. That's what has me concerned here in Navarre, Florida...a very large rapidly intensifying Hurricane approaching the Alabama coastline. Once again, we'd be on the bad side, just like Ivan. It's beautiful here now and it's taken us eight long years to get it this way. Not that I wish this on anyone, but hopefully it stays westward for a while longer and goes into Mexico.

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

Buoy has a 1003.9 pressure and 33kt sustained 1-min winds...
using the 10kt/ per mb rule

It maybe close to 1000mb

[WeatherGuesser]

Kinda like hauling a large truck full of gravel up a steep grade. Hard to get going, but once it does .....