WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[phwxenthusiast]

Great analysis, srpepr! Thank you. WPAC already racking up the T numbers. Looking like we might be spared some of the brunt of the storm if latest track forecasts are correct.

yeah definitely but still, cat 1 or cat 2 winds are nothing to scoff at... from a chasing standpoint, though, it's not that special especially in a basin like WPAC...

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 14.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 18.6N 127.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 180600UTC 23.4N 127.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 190600UTC 28.4N 130.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


CMA just upgraded and pushed their forecast max intensity up by 5m/s.

WTPQ20 BABJ 160900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY GUCHOL 1204 (1204) INITIAL TIME 160900 UTC
00HR 14.4N 129.1E 935HPA 52M/S
30KTS 350KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR NW 20KM/H
P+24HR 18.9N 127.0E 925HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 24.3N 127.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 30.2N 131.4E 960HPA 40M/S
P+96HR 35.2N 138.1E 975HPA 30M/S
P+120HR 38.7N 150.0E 990HPA 18M/S=

[dexterlabio]

Great analysis, srpepr! Thank you. WPAC already racking up the T numbers. Looking like we might be spared some of the brunt of the storm if latest track forecasts are correct.

the current forecast track has the eye passing some tens of kilometers off Okinawa...the windfield of the storm has expanded more than it had the past days and I think adverse effects from the storm can be felt even if eye doesn't pass directly.

[Infdidoll]

Don't get me wrong. We are still preparing. Just thankful, if forecasts hold out, that we won't be getting hit with that right front quadrant on the west side of the island. We were hit that way with Songda and it was a mess for days. Lots of damage reports. If the typhoon skirts the east side of the island, we are much better off. If it stays at current intensity, it's still going to be bad, but it could be MUCH worse if it hits us from the other side. The good thing is we're a concrete jungle, unlike Taiwan and the casualty report is likely to be much less from us taking the brunt of the storm. I've had a few glasses of wine and hope I'm making an iota of sense right now.

[Extratropical94]

SAB: 2012JUN16 100100 5.9 932.7/ +2.9 /112.4 5.8 5.9 7.0
CIMSS:

Code: Select all

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.5 / 932.2mb/127.0kt

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.5     6.5     7.0

T7.0 = Cat. 5 on both ADT estimates

[senorpepr]

No shock as JMA remains a conservative 85 kt (as compared to Dvorak estimates)

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 14.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 18.6N 127.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 180600UTC 23.4N 127.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 190600UTC 28.4N 130.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[dexterlabio]

^Infdidoll, I get your point clearly. yea i remeber Songda passing west of Okinawa last year and causing more damage than Muifa.

For me, Okinawa is a safe and sturdy fortress and is perfect to chase strong typhoons without worries, as we are all aware how well-built the structures and camps are in the island to withstand severe weather. If you are to chase storms in the Philippines, you might as well be prepared to face harm. Kidding, no offense meant.

[senorpepr]

SAB: 2012JUN16 100100 5.9 932.7/ +2.9 /112.4 5.8 5.9 7.0
CIMSS:

Code: Select all

                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.5 / 932.2mb/127.0kt

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.5     6.5     7.0

T7.0 = Cat. 5 on both ADT estimates

CIMSS is not reporting 7.0. That's a raw number without appropriate adjustments. It remains T6.5

[GCANE]

An EWRC may be starting up

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... lay48.html

[senorpepr]

I did another "one-timer" analysis from the 1101Z MTSAT shot:

The CDO has continued to cool over the past few hours. When I did my last analysis, just a little bit of cold, medium grey (CMG) appeared. At 10Z, CMG surrounded the eye. At 1030Z and 11Z, there’s a bit of cold, dark grey (CDG) showing up in spots. With this satellite image, this is the first time CMG extends beyond 30 n mi from the eyewall, allowing E# to be placed at 6.5.

The eye appears to have contracted a little bit, down from 30 n mi to 28 n mi. Off-white (OW) appears in the eye… although there may be a little warm, medium grey. Staying conservative, the CMG-OW eye adjustment yields a +0.5. There are no significant banding features. Therefore: DT = 6.5 + 0.5 + 0.0 = T7.0 (Although there may be a case for T7.5, I’m holding off on that for now)

24 hours ago, the JTWC analysis was T5.0. Based off a T7.0, this would yield a model-T of D2.0, which matches JTWC’s 09Z MET.

Pattern T is 6.0, but it should be mentioned there’s really now patterns above 6.0.

Since DT is 7.0 and the trend of MET would also yield T7.0, my personal Final-T is T7.0 or 140 kt / 898 hPa.

FWIW, CIMSS ADT shows a Raw T of 7.2, but a final T of 6.6 (130 kt 929 hPa) and they’re running a constraint limit of 1.7T/6 hr

We’ll see what JTWC’s Final-T is soon…

[Chacor]

Guchol looks immense.

[P.K.]

12Z JMA T6.5/6.5/D1.5 24hrs

[Infdidoll]

^Infdidoll, I get your point clearly. yea i remeber Songda passing west of Okinawa last year and causing more damage than Muifa.

For me, Okinawa is a safe and sturdy fortress and is perfect to chase strong typhoons without worries, as we are all aware how well-built the structures and camps are in the island to withstand severe weather. If you are to chase storms in the Philippines, you might as well be prepared to face harm. Kidding, no offense meant.

No offense taken at all! I was just making sure I didn't sound too nonchalant. We're all stocked and ready to roll here, but man, this situation could be bad if hit from the other side with a storm like Guchol. Right now, Man-Yi of 2007 is the big one everyone on this island talks about and remembers. Songda gave us a pretty good hit, but we haven't seen a storm with the intensity of Guchol in a while. I think everyone is more excited than anything (except the newcomers, of course - lol).

[senorpepr]

JTWC keeping with T6.5 citing that the cold, medium grey isn't thick enough (I respectfully disagree, but T6.5 still is reasonable considering the warming spots in the SE side)



736
TPPN10 PGTW 161215

A. TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL)

B. 16/1132Z

C. 14.9N

D. 128.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 65NM WHITE BAND SURROUNDING EYE
+.5 (OW EYE TEMP W/WHITE SURROUNDING FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT) USING
EYE TECHNIQUE YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET AGREES; PT IS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0717Z 14.2N 129.6E SSMI


HUME

[RL3AO]

Thanks for that Senor. Nice to learn about the detailed analysis of the Dvorak technique.

[Chacor]

100 knots matches JMA T6.5. New forecast 115 kt peak. That's about a 540° about-face from its previous conservative warnings.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1204 GUCHOL (1204)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 14.9N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 19.7N 127.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 181200UTC 25.0N 128.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 191200UTC 30.4N 131.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

For some context, this is the first time the JMA has actively forecast a storm to reach 115 knots since Typhoon Megi.

[Chacor]

Forecast to be at 115kt just SE of Okinawa.

[dexterlabio]

you gotta check out the term in the forecast intensities by JMA, violent...woah..i dunno if i've seen them before using "violent" to describe typhoons with winds 110kts and above. When Megi hit around 120kts 10-min average, I don't remember seeing them describing its intensity as violent. Not an issue, of course, but that was kinda interesting to read.

[mrbagyo]

WOW! boom....what a quick development..might become the first cat 5, the eye looks very impressive in the microwave...

[P.K.]

you gotta check out the term in the forecast intensities by JMA, violent...woah..i dunno if i've seen them before using "violent" to describe typhoons with winds 110kts and above. When Megi hit around 120kts 10-min average, I don't remember seeing them describing its intensity as violent. Not an issue, of course, but that was kinda interesting to read.

Those relate to the scale the Japanese use within Japan. You don't see Violent Typhoons all that often as you say.

34-63kts Typhoon
64-84kts Strong Typhoon
85-104kts Very Strong Typhoon
105kts+ Violent Typhoon

Note this scale is not used by them internationally but using 3 categories from 64kts upwards is used by quite a few of the RSMCs/TCWCs.