ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Excellent view of the northern circulation in the last few frames of the high reoslution sat.imagery, movement is due west and looks pretty much closed. Not sure how long it'll last as its pretty well removed from any deep convection at the moment.

Probably going to do a loop around the broad center point unless it gets some convective meat on it.

That vortmax will probably go into Hispaniola and die

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

[cpdaman]

what a displaced piece of crapola.
just when you think it's organizing it still has multiple swirls and twisting and turning going on from like 15.5 68.5 SE'ward to 14.3 67.3 . just a mess

just go to the yucatan already and fall apart

[Hurricaneman]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

I would have to think low level dry air from South America

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

Its really baffling to me, I'm not sure NHC have a huge idea either hence why they are so keen on trying to get as much data as they can in the mid levels of this system. Clearly something must be very wrong for it to keep happening over such a long period.

Northern vort does look decent actually looking at the Vis.imagery, I'm seeing a closed circulation with it.

[sammy126]

can anyone tell me which of these computer models is the most reliable? thanks

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14 ... torm2.jpg/

[BensonTCwatcher]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

I was just thinking that. There is not enough shear to push the MLC off and it sure looks like the low lever vort will crash into Hisp.

[Aric Dunn]

that mid level circ continues to spit out vorticies not sure why its de coupled the way it is.

Its really baffling to me, I'm not sure NHC have a huge idea either hence why they are so keen on trying to get as much data as they can in the mid levels of this system. Clearly something must be very wrong for it to keep happening over such a long period.

Northern vort does look decent actually looking at the Vis.imagery, I'm seeing a closed circulation with it.

well the noaa plane is clearly heading for the midlevel circ/ vort their radar may be picking up on something there.

[KWT]

well the noaa plane is clearly heading for the midlevel circ/ vort their radar may be picking up on something there.

Yep, microwave showed something very obviously was down there as well, though interestingly enough the northern vortex was more obvious at the time.

That northern vortex shouldn't hit Hispaniola as its heading due west, maybe even a smidge south of west at the moment as it circulates around the broader circulation. As I said, unless convection beefs up over it, its going to end up dying out as it rotates around the broader circulation you'd have thought.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like the mid level is prevailing on sat to me looking at the NW flow of banded cells in between. Maybe this is is enough to break the broader competeting circs up. Kind of like the only peace is though victory

[wxman76]

Outflow in the NorthWest quadrant seems to be hindered. Probably effects of passing by Hispanola. This thing needs a serious jog North to get close to the NHC track.

[KWT]

The mid level doesn't look that impressive looking at recon reports at the moment, very odd system this one!

[artist]

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42: At our Initial Point winds at flight-level very weak, surface winds strong, suggesting storm still disorganized.

http://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

[Aric Dunn]

The mid level doesn't look that impressive looking at recon reports at the moment, very odd system this one!

well it did up until it hit the area of light winds. those southerly winds on the east side very solid then it went to crap.

[wxman57]

can anyone tell me which of these computer models is the most reliable? thanks

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14 ... torm2.jpg/

From that list, I'd immediately throw out the green NGPS (NOGAPS). HWRF and GFDL, the two hurricane models have been very bad. The one global model that's been doing the best this year is the GFS (burgandy color). Also, the consensus model TVCN (light blue). Sometimes a consensus is better than any one model.

[KWT]

The mid level doesn't look that impressive looking at recon reports at the moment, very odd system this one!

well it did up until it hit the area of light winds. those southerly winds on the east side very solid then it went to crap.

I was just waiting for a solid batch of west winds, instead what we got was a bend back to SW/SSW and then light winds. Baffling system!

[wxman76]

Here is something to chew on. Hurricane Eloise 1975

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eloise

This thing was very disorganized over hispanola and Cuba, actually hit the yucatan, got up into the GOM and bombed to 955 mb Cat 3. Never give up!

[artist]

lot's of 40 SFMR winds last set

[Aric Dunn]

the last minobs that just came in are strange. all flight level winds are 5 to 15 while the sfmr ( unflagged) are upper 30's to 40's kts.

[meriland23]

quite the defying sucker aint he