ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I'm starting to think that the NWS forecaster who dubbed this the Frankenstorm actually did emergency planners a favor. It's something that gets the right kind of attention from the general public a whole lot better than 'post-tropical cyclone Sandy' would have.

Here is that unique discussion by HPC forecaster CISCO.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... 10&fmt=reg

[Evenstar]

Sorry guys, jinftl answered my question before I could even finish TYPING IT.

I love storm2k!

[CrazyC83]

I drew up a little graphic to show the big difference as to whether Sandy landfalls east or west of NYC. The forecast path is the second one which of course is much worse.

THIS WOULD BE BETTTER BUT IS UNLIKELY:


THIS IS THE FORECAST:

The only silver lining is that Long Island and oceanside areas should see less flooding than with Irene.

[jinftl]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

:uarrow: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

[artist]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

:uarrow: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front without heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

[Stephanie]

jinftl - We're not used to sustained Tropical force winds that will be going on for 2 days, an "eye" landing in New Jersey and the buildup along the NJ, DE and Long Island south shore is tremendous. The flooding is going to cause $$$$ in damage. There was continuous coverage for hurricanes that hit down along the Gulf Coast for good reason, the complacency of people in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast with tropical systems is real. I think that the "hype" is truly needed.

[Stephanie]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

:uarrow: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front without heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

Thank you.

[Peach]

TWC is getting ready to explain why these ships headed out to see today into 30-40 foot seas. I totally understand that it's safer to leave port for the ships. But is it safer for the passengers?

The ships leaving have crews, most likely no pasengers. I threw a fit at age 5 or 6 when the Navy sent my father OUT TO SEA with a storm approaching Norfolk. My father explained that the ship would be bashed against the shore if she stayed in port. He always said he felt safer at sea than on land during tropical storms, he'd been through thunderstorms at sea that were worse.

[tolakram]

The storm is getting alot of hype....basically we know it's going to be bad I was wondering just how bad it's likely to be.

Hurricanes are hard enough to forecast, but one transforming into a cross between a hurricane and a noreaster are even harder. No one knows how bad it will be, all we can go by is the models and they are saying it will be very bad. Weather is not an exact science so the best anyone can do is be prepared and listen to local weather authorities.

[monicaei]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

:uarrow: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front without heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

Agreed, but honestly the Katrina lingo HAS to stop, IMO. Every "threat" since 05 has been compared to her. I get she is the "gold standard" of catastrophe, but even forgetting how silly and disrespectful it is to those who lived through it... The media sets people up to think if it's not gonna devastate a major metro area and kill thousands, it's kinda a "let down".

That really should STOP. There was, and hopefully will be, only ONE K in our life times. put her on a shelf, put a trophy by her, and call it a day

[jinftl]

again, a fine line....there are areas that need to take this more seriously....but the overall impression i am getting is that the word has been put out that 60 million people...1/5 of the U.S....is on the verge of experiencing something that has never happened. Collectively, that may be true, but on other boards people are saying things like when the strong low meets up with the hurricane, you need to add the winds of the 2 events together....there is room for rumors to run rampant

TWC met said, 'we have experienced rain and gusts to 45 mph or 17 hours if you can believe it in North Carolina.' 1000-2000 without power if you can imagine that'.

ummmm

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

:uarrow: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front without heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

[HurrMark]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

I live close to Boston as well...I actually heard the opposite, with a lot of complacency. I think this storm should be taken very seriously inland because of the power outage situation (we are not talking about scattered outages but very widespread outages across an entire region of the country). Yes, we have seen 55, 65 mph winds in thunderstorms or maybe from a noreaster once in a while, but the difference is that these kinds winds are going to continue for hours in frequent gusts, and not for a minute or two. I think it is really the NY/Philly suburbs that will take it the hardest in terms of inland effects, but this is on a scale that has not been seen in generations. As noted above, we aren't that used to these systems, so I think the hype is legit in this situation.

[Raebie]

TWC is getting ready to explain why these ships headed out to see today into 30-40 foot seas. I totally understand that it's safer to leave port for the ships. But is it safer for the passengers?

The ships leaving have crews, most likely no pasengers. I threw a fit at age 5 or 6 when the Navy sent my father OUT TO SEA with a storm approaching Norfolk. My father explained that the ship would be bashed against the shore if she stayed in port. He always said he felt safer at sea than on land during tropical storms, he'd been through thunderstorms at sea that were worse.

No, they are fully loaded with passengers.

[Weatherguy173]

this storm has wrapped around beautifully recently, look at it's spiral on the IR satellite!

[Stephanie]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

I live close to Boston as well...I actually heard the opposite, with a lot of complacency. I think this storm should be taken very seriously inland because of the power outage situation (we are not talking about scattered outages but very widespread outages across an entire region of the country). Yes, we have seen 55, 65 mph winds in thunderstorms or maybe from a noreaster once in a while, but the difference is that these kinds winds are going to continue for hours in frequent gusts, and not for a minute or two. I think it is really the NY/Philly suburbs that will take it the hardest in terms of inland effects, but this is on a scale that has not been seen in generations. As noted above, we aren't that used to these systems, so I think the hype is legit in this situation.

Yup.

[Meteorcane]

Im curious as to why the shortwave trough would cause it to go northwest, it is because it is negatively tilted and would cause a boomerang type steering pattern?

[artist]

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front without heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

Agreed, but honestly the Katrina lingo HAS to stop, IMO. Every "threat" since 05 has been compared to her. I get she is the "gold standard" of catastrophe, but even forgetting how silly and disrespectful it is to those who lived through it... The media sets people up to think if it's not gonna devastate a major metro area and kill thousands, it's kinda a "let down".

That really should STOP. There was, and hopefully will be, only ONE K in our life times. put her on a shelf, put a trophy by her, and call it a day

you do know they have stated this could be a one in 250 year storm, correct?

[kat61]

surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

I agree that 'overhype' for some who are not fmiliar with long lasting winds and water accumulation. You have to remember that folks in the north are more used to FAST systems,(snow,tornado,etc..) and not long lasting tropcal features. If you are conyerying information please give an approximate time frame for them to understand. I'm not a scientist, but back up the data with the endurance of the potential. If your 'wrong' so what . I think some might be thinking this mess will end in a few minutes/hours. which is not the case with tropical systems. or ,,,extra-tropical or whatever it is.. it's a long lasting mess of water and wind

:uarrow: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front withoutI think that is really important heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

do your best to educate

[Stephanie]

Im curious as to why the shortwave trough would cause it to go northwest, it is because it is negatively tilted and would cause a boomerang type steering pattern?

The High Pressure is blocking from moving anywhere but through a "funnel" between that trough and the High pressure. Normally, Sandy would be heading out to sea.

[monicaei]

depending on the severity, power could be out for many days, possibly weeks away from the direct shoreline. A severe cold front without heat on top of that could bring much misery to many and they need to be prepared.

Agreed, but honestly the Katrina lingo HAS to stop, IMO. Every "threat" since 05 has been compared to her. I get she is the "gold standard" of catastrophe, but even forgetting how silly and disrespectful it is to those who lived through it... The media sets people up to think if it's not gonna devastate a major metro area and kill thousands, it's kinda a "let down".

That really should STOP. There was, and hopefully will be, only ONE K in our life times. put her on a shelf, put a trophy by her, and call it a day

you do know they have stated this could be a one in 250 year storm, correct?

Yup, and leave the comparisons to post storm analysis. The "next" Katrina has been tagged enough times in the last 7 years that I'd rather leave her out of the discussion. Just my opinion. Come back to it about Thursday? Or when we are picking people off roofs? Which ever comes first?