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HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:So at least 50kts at 5?
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:In case you didn't see it, it says 50kts or 60 mph.
Nederlander wrote:HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:In case you didn't see it, it says 50kts or 60 mph.
nvm lol.. I just noticed that I mixed the two.. But anywho, I don't recall the relationship between a pressure drop and wind speed increase to be linear?
If Ernesto would take a NNW turn.
Kingarabian wrote:What if... I told you @ the beginning of the season that the NOGAPS would finally out preform the GFS and Euro models...
ROCK wrote:interesting that the TVCN model blend is now north of the NHC plot...though I guess the NHC hasnt updated yet. They usually follow it to a T...
brunota2003 wrote:ROCK wrote:interesting that the TVCN model blend is now north of the NHC plot...though I guess the NHC hasnt updated yet. They usually follow it to a T...
From 11 am discussion:
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN
ERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED
TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
Well, it's time to start paying attention to Ernesto. The system is looking better developed on the satellite, but Hurricane Hunters flying through the storm this morning are not finding an especially strong storm. In any case, the big question is, what's going to happen once the storm gets to western Caribbean. The weather pattern is straight forward, but the fine details are complicated. A ...
strong high pressure system spreads across most of the Atlantic Ocean which generally holds storms south. When the western end of that high shrinks back into the Atlantic, it creates a path for storms to turn north, if a storm is positioned to take it. In addition, however, and here's the complication, there is often a flow farther south that continues to the west that a storm can take. Essentially, there's a fork in the road. Another complication is that the strength of the storm can influence which fork it takes, with generally stronger storms turning right and weaker storm staying left. So here's the challenge with Ernesto. The best computer forecast models on average over the past few years show Ernesto staying relatively weak and taking the left fork toward Central America and the southern Yucatan. The models that have been poorer the last few years show Ernesto getting much stronger, taking the right fork, and heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Normally you would say, "trust those most reliable models". But, in this case there is nothing obvious that would keep Ernesto from intensifying in the Western Caribbean, perhaps quite rapidly, so the normally most reliable models are called into question. About the time that Ernesto gets south of Cuba, the path to north should open and it seems that a strong Ernesto would take it which would pose a threat to the Gulf coast late next week. A weak Ernesto would likely not "see" it, however, and head more westerly posing a flood threat to parts of Central America and Mexico. For now, we stay tuned. In the short term, Ernesto should pass south of Jamaica late tomorrow with just gusty outer squalls affecting the island.
Hurricaneman wrote:I would put out a hurricane watch for Jamaica if things progress, the GHz pass even indicates the beginning of an eyewall
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