ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
lester
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1305
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:21 pm
Location: Washington, DC
Contact:

#2421 Postby lester » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:17 pm

recon found 102 kts flight level wind. what would that be at the surface?
0 likes   

FutureEM
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat May 19, 2012 8:16 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2422 Postby FutureEM » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:18 pm

Those 102kt Flight Level Winds are extreme and believable if you look at them in context. I'm still only in remedial Meteorology classes, what do flight level winds like those reduce to?
Last edited by FutureEM on Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2423 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:19 pm

Stephanie wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Im curious as to why the shortwave trough would cause it to go northwest, it is because it is negatively tilted and would cause a boomerang type steering pattern?


The High Pressure is blocking from moving anywhere but through a "funnel" between that trough and the High pressure. Normally, Sandy would be heading out to sea.


Thanks would the high pressure you are referring to be the one just south of Greenland?
0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re:

#2424 Postby HurrMark » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:19 pm

lester wrote:recon found 102 kts flight level wind. what would that be at the surface?


The SFMR for that ob is only 45 kt, but there were a few 62-63s in there...
0 likes   

User avatar
shorty121
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 18
Age: 46
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:39 am
Location: NW Missouri

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2425 Postby shorty121 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:19 pm

Raebie wrote:
Peach wrote:
Terry wrote:TWC is getting ready to explain why these ships headed out to see today into 30-40 foot seas. I totally understand that it's safer to leave port for the ships. But is it safer for the passengers?


The ships leaving have crews, most likely no pasengers. I threw a fit at age 5 or 6 when the Navy sent my father OUT TO SEA with a storm approaching Norfolk. My father explained that the ship would be bashed against the shore if she stayed in port. He always said he felt safer at sea than on land during tropical storms, he'd been through thunderstorms at sea that were worse.


No, they are fully loaded with passengers.


I don't know about all the ships, but a good friend of mine is on the Carnival Miracle... they departed this evening (a day early) and are going down the coast to Florida to pick up the rest of the ship's supplies before heading to the Caribbean. She loves storms so was actually excited about this but she did text me while boarding and said people she was talking to around her didn't seem to be grasping that they were going to go through potentially harsh weather. The cruise line made it sound like they would be out of the way of the storm. In any case, she's ready with a lot of memory cards for the cameras (she promised me storm videos!) and Dramamine.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: Re:

#2426 Postby Stephanie » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:22 pm

monicaei wrote:Yup, and leave the comparisons to post storm analysis. The "next" Katrina has been tagged enough times in the last 7 years that I'd rather leave her out of the discussion. Just my opinion. Come back to it about Thursday? Or when we are picking people off roofs? Which ever comes first?


I know I have not compared this to Katrina but can you understand that this Nor'easter is OUR gold standard for Nor'easter's??? There's nothing that will EVER hopefully compare to Katrina, but how's about a little compassion and understanding for those of us that maybe facing our own disaster? I know we all felt it for those of you in Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Jeanne, Charlie, etc. Don't minimalize this for us because it's NOT minimal.
1 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2427 Postby Stephanie » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:23 pm

Meteorcane wrote:
Stephanie wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Im curious as to why the shortwave trough would cause it to go northwest, it is because it is negatively tilted and would cause a boomerang type steering pattern?


The High Pressure is blocking from moving anywhere but through a "funnel" between that trough and the High pressure. Normally, Sandy would be heading out to sea.


Thanks would the high pressure you are referring to be the one just south of Greenland?


I believe that's the one.
0 likes   

monicaei
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 4:58 pm

Re: Re:

#2428 Postby monicaei » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:24 pm

Stephanie wrote:
monicaei wrote:Yup, and leave the comparisons to post storm analysis. The "next" Katrina has been tagged enough times in the last 7 years that I'd rather leave her out of the discussion. Just my opinion. Come back to it about Thursday? Or when we are picking people off roofs? Which ever comes first?


I know I have not compared this to Katrina but can you understand that this Nor'easter is OUR gold standard for Nor'easter's??? There's nothing that will EVER hopefully compare to Katrina, but how's about a little compassion and understanding for those of us that maybe facing our own disaster? I know we all felt it for those of you in Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Jeanne, Charlie, etc. Don't minimalize this for us because it's NOT minimal.


I meant NO disrespect, and I'm sorry. It was NOT meant that way. I'm following this with a huge deal of fear for the people in harms way. I'm not minimalizing it at all. I'm sorry it came off that way. I was just saying the Katrina thing has been so over used that its never going to go away.
Last edited by monicaei on Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

FutureEM
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat May 19, 2012 8:16 am

#2429 Postby FutureEM » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:25 pm

More Flight Level winds of Category 2 strength, hope those don't start translating to the surface.
0 likes   

jaxfladude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1249
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:36 pm
Location: Jacksonville, Fla

Re: Re:

#2430 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:26 pm

jinftl wrote:surge forecasts yes, size of area impacted yes, potential for millions to lose power yes....but outside of surge zones, i am almost wondering if the expectation is for something that has never been seen before - to be honest, all of these areas have seen 55 to 65 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph. The large scale threat of epic surge in places like NYC subway system is real - if people, esp the bulk who live outside of a surge evacuation zone are expecting armageddon from 65 mph winds for the next day or so, there is a potential 'overhype' taking place. Look, you lose power for a week from 60 mph winds, it stinks. My aunt 40 miles inland from boston is wondering if she will lose her roof and if fema will come with tarps and trailers. It's a fine line between warning those who need to be and those who may think everyone will see surge and katrina-lingo is needed when you live inland from the major city on the coast whose news station is on nonstop with coverage.

jaxfladude wrote::uarrow: :eek: 2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....



Good post...
0 likes   
Stay safe y'all

User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2431 Postby Meteorcane » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:26 pm

FutureEM wrote:Those 102kt Flight Level Winds are extreme and believable if you look at them in context. I'm still only in remedial Meteorology classes, what do flight level winds like those refuse to?


In that same vein, I wonder if the FL/Surface ratio would be higher in this hybrid type system, due to general lack of convective transport (outside the center where semi-vigorous convection persists? I also know that most Cold Core systems, strengthen with height leading to stronger winds in the upper levels, however the upper levels referred to are usually 400-500mb in those cases, and flight level for those obs is way lower than that so I don't know if that would apply here. Would some one knowledgeable on the matter comment on this?
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#2432 Postby artist » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:27 pm

Personally I have not seen this compared to Katrina. It is a whole different type beast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: Re:

#2433 Postby Stephanie » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:28 pm

monicaei wrote:
Stephanie wrote:
monicaei wrote:Yup, and leave the comparisons to post storm analysis. The "next" Katrina has been tagged enough times in the last 7 years that I'd rather leave her out of the discussion. Just my opinion. Come back to it about Thursday? Or when we are picking people off roofs? Which ever comes first?


I know I have not compared this to Katrina but can you understand that this Nor'easter is OUR gold standard for Nor'easter's??? There's nothing that will EVER hopefully compare to Katrina, but how's about a little compassion and understanding for those of us that maybe facing our own disaster? I know we all felt it for those of you in Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Jeanne, Charlie, etc. Don't minimalize this for us because it's NOT minimal.


I meant NO disrespect, and I'm sorry. It was NOT meant that way. I'm following this with a huge deal of fear for the people in harms way. I'm not minimalizing it at all. I'm sorry it came off that way.


Thank you very much. I know that Katrina is ALWAYS going to be sensitive for so many for what everyone went through and for anyone to compare this to her is way off base. Totally different situation, storm and circumstance. ((HUGS)).
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re:

#2434 Postby Stephanie » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:29 pm

artist wrote:Personally I have not seen this compared to Katrina. It is a whole different type beast.


Whoever did compare Sandy to Katrina is totally off base.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthernBreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2435 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:34 pm

I've recently noticed a little less E movement - would this be the very start of the W turn, or just a wobble?
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherguy173
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 148
Age: 31
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:55 pm
Location: Short Hills NJ

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2436 Postby Weatherguy173 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:37 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:I've recently noticed a little less E movement - would this be the very start of the W turn, or just a wobble?


probs, if not now, any moment
0 likes   
Nothing I say is intended to be a forecast; it's only food for thought and friendly advice!

MiamiensisWx

Re: Re:

#2437 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:38 pm

Stephanie wrote:
artist wrote:Personally I have not seen this compared to Katrina. It is a whole different type beast.


Whoever did compare Sandy to Katrina is totally off base.

At any rate, different storms in different set-ups cannot realistically be likened to each other unless the atmospheric set-up, size, or region affected is similar to that of the other storm. Sandy would not fit the profile of Katrina, a Gulf storm, in any event--except in size, which is even larger than that of Katrina.

But while I hope as much as anyone that another Katrina redux will never occur, I think setting a storm on a standard can be dangerous, for there always comes a time when a new event comes along that sets new standards for storm veterans. Before 1900, Galvestonians must have thought they had seen the worst--until 1900 proved their sense of invincibility wrong. Before 1926, Miamians thought there would never be such a storm as the one that flooded Miami Beach. And bless Lake Okeechobee residents who never thought they would see two deadly storms of 1926 and 1928 within such a short period, much less the second deadliest in American history.

I am not diminishing anyone’s experiences...but I think that it is important for those individuals who have had the experiences to take the right lessons from it and never think they have survived the worst and therefore can withstand anything. (This is not directed at anyone in particular...there will always be people who will refuse to evacuate because they survived their gold standard...which was really only a personal gold standard before the next big event came along.)

Now, back to Sandy we go...
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2438 Postby Stephanie » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:38 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:I've recently noticed a little less E movement - would this be the very start of the W turn, or just a wobble?


If she's slowing down that forward, eastward pace, it could be. I few more satellite frames will tell the story. She's about where she's supposed to be where she's supposed to start bending.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2439 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:39 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: Re:

#2440 Postby Stephanie » Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:41 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
Stephanie wrote:
artist wrote:Personally I have not seen this compared to Katrina. It is a whole different type beast.


Whoever did compare Sandy to Katrina is totally off base.

At any rate, different storms in different set-ups cannot realistically be likened to each other unless the atmospheric set-up, size, or region affected is similar to that of the other storm. Sandy would not fit the profile of Katrina, a Gulf storm, in any event--except in size, which is even larger than that of Katrina.

But while I hope as much as anyone that another Katrina redux will never occur, I think setting a storm on a standard can be dangerous, for there always comes a time when a new event comes along that sets new standards for storm veterans. Before 1900, Galvestonians must have thought they had seen the worst--until 1900 proved their sense of invincibility wrong. Before 1926, Miamians thought there would never be such a storm as the one that flooded Miami Beach. And bless Lake Okeechobee residents who never thought they would see two deadly storms of 1926 and 1928 within such a short period, much less the second deadliest in American history.

I am not diminishing anyone’s experiences...but I think that it is important for those individuals who have had the experiences to take the right lessons from it and never think they have survived the worst and therefore can withstand anything. (This is not directed at anyone in particular...there will always be people who will refuse to evacuate because they survived their gold standard...which was really only a personal gold standard before the next big event came along.)

Now, back to Sandy we go...


Beautifully said. Thank you for that perspective. :)
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests