ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If there was ever a storm to have full scale recon on, including the P-3s...this is definitely one of the storms! The data gained from these constant flights is going to be studied and scrutinized for years to come! Why isn't it coming together? If it does come together, what happened that lead up to that point? Etc...man oh man.

In other news...Isaac has at least 35 knot winds (1 minute sustained) per the 6 pm EDT update of Buoy 42059.

Yeah it might be a bit stronger than that, the SFMR has been finding winds solidly in the 40s.

[Kingarabian]

If there was ever a storm to have full scale recon on, including the P-3s...this is definitely one of the storms! The data gained from these constant flights is going to be studied and scrutinized for years to come! Why isn't it coming together? If it does come together, what happened that lead up to that point? Etc...man oh man.

In other news...Isaac has at least 35 knot winds (1 minute sustained) per the 6 pm EDT update of Buoy 42059.

Yeah it might be a bit stronger than that, the SFMR has been finding winds solidly in the 40s.

Copy that.

[SouthDadeFish]

Windsat made a recent pass:

[Air Force Met]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry...but that is an absurd post. First...it is not a tropical wave with a 1002-1003 MB pressure. The NOAA-09 mission splashed a dropsonde of 1005mb with 26 kts of wind from the SSW. that equates to 1002-1003 MB. IR shows a very well mid level circulation with numerous -80C tops popping off...and that dropsonde shows the mid level circ is close to the lowest pressure.

Last hour, buoy 42059 had SW winds gusting to 40 kts. You do not get that in a tropical wave. From the NE, E or SE? Yeah. From the SW. NO. It has a pressure of 1005 Mb. This this is a closed low by several MB's. This is a tropical cyclone.

[Frank P]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry...but that is an absurd post. First...it is not a tropical wave with a 1002-1003 MB pressure. The NOAA-09 mission splashed a dropsonde of 1005mb with 26 kts of wind from the SSW. that equates to 1002-1003 MB. IR shows a very well mid level circulation with numerous -80C tops popping off...and that dropsonde shows the mid level circ is close to the lowest pressure.

Last hour, buoy 42059 had SW winds gusting to 40 kts. You do not get that in a tropical wave. From the NE, E or SE? Yeah. From the SW. NO. It has a pressure of 1005 Mb. This this is a closed low by several MB's. This is a tropical cyclone.

Thanks AFM, windsat also confirms the TC... not that it was necessary... IMO... should start some kind of northerly component within the next 12-24 hours if any of the models are going to validate... my unprofessional opinion only...

[MGC]

1800Z GFS run has Isaac sitting on top of me! Looks like Isaac has a bunch of closed isobars at his arrival in the La/Ms/Al area...so much fun watching this. Starting to wonder if land will destroy the many eddys circulating about the larger center and allow it to finally consilidate one central core. That may not happen till Isaac moves off Cuba......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[KWT]

Yeah it might be a bit stronger than that, the SFMR has been finding winds solidly in the 40s.

Last few missions have found winds that borderline 40kts strength.

I'm still not at all impressed by the lower levels of this system, but alas we've not had a good recon fix in a few hours from the low levels, I'll feel more confident about what its like once they make a pass.

Without a doubt there is a LLC, maybe even a couple in there, I spotted one earlier though it was just a vortex probably.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah the area with the lowest pressure the last pass had TS force winds.

That is because the NOAA plan is flying at 10K feet...and extrapolating the pressure. The system certainly has stacking issues. Do not look at the pressures on the NOAA or C-130 planes when they are that high up and take them as gospel that that is what they are at the sfc. Look at the dropsondes.

[Blinhart]

Looking at the Recon obs, this is clearly not a tropical cyclone, its just a broad area of low pressure aka a tropical wave

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry...but that is an absurd post. First...it is not a tropical wave with a 1002-1003 MB pressure. The NOAA-09 mission splashed a dropsonde of 1005mb with 26 kts of wind from the SSW. that equates to 1002-1003 MB. IR shows a very well mid level circulation with numerous -80C tops popping off...and that dropsonde shows the mid level circ is close to the lowest pressure.

Last hour, buoy 42059 had SW winds gusting to 40 kts. You do not get that in a tropical wave. From the NE, E or SE? Yeah. From the SW. NO. It has a pressure of 1005 Mb. This this is a closed low by several MB's. This is a tropical cyclone.

I was waiting for one of you guys to correct this, I'm not a Pro-Met, but I was thinking the same thing since I read that message.

[sandyb]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

sorry posted the wrong link and dont know how to take it off

[Frank P]

1800Z GFS run has Isaac sitting on top of me! Looks like Isaac has a bunch of closed isobars at his arrival in the La/Ms/Al area...so much fun watching this. Starting to wonder if land will destroy the many eddys circulating about the larger center and allow it to finally consilidate one central core. That may not happen till Isaac moves off Cuba......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

Per NHC this thing is really not supposed to get its hurricane act together until it gets into the GOM.. so why should be be surprised its still a TS? all in due time..

[monicaei]

Watching closely from S La. If it's dry air getting into the system that's impeding development, is that gonna abate at some point? Where/when? Also, when do the models with the Gulfstream's data come out? (in time other than UTC, please )

Thanks for such an inforamtive site, it really is helpful to understanding what is going on with the storm OTHER than it's impacts on the RNC.

[sandyb]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx

sorry posted the wrong link and dont know how to take it off

actually this is correct just have to set it up thought it was a nice site wanted to share

[Hurricane Andrew]

Watching closely from S La. If it's dry air getting into the system that's impeding development, is that gonna abate at some point? Where/when? Also, when do the models with the Gulfstream's data come out? (in time other than UTC, please )

Thanks for such an inforamtive site, it really is helpful to understanding what is going on with the storm OTHER than it's impacts on the RNC.

First 0z runs start in a few hours, maybe some in a mere 1 or 2, the dynamicals.

[Hurricaneman]

Windsat made a recent pass:

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/8903 ... wind09.jpg

I was wrong about this not being a tropical cyclone, sorry about that

there are 2 areas of low pressure in that image 1 area at 16.8N and 1 area at 14.5N near the MLC, which makes me believe that the low at 14.5 will take over.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Heck yeah, the 37 GHz Windsat pass:



I think I may see a center around 16.5N 67W

[brunota2003]

#NOAA42 beginning second pass of #Isaac. Descending to 5000 ft altitude to do some center hunting for NHC.

Shhhh...be wery, wery wuiet...I'm hunting wabbit!

[KWT]

Per NHC this thing is really not supposed to get its hurricane act together until it gets into the GOM.. so why should be be surprised its still a TS? all in due time..

To be fair that more down to the fact its over land for msot of the time, the NHC seem to think the conditions will become condusive, perhaps very condusive, so its just land interaction that holds it back according to the NHC.

Northern vort looks stronger for the 2nd time on that microwave pass.

[KWT]

#NOAA42 beginning second pass of #Isaac. Descending to 5000 ft altitude to do some center hunting for NHC.

Shhhh...be wery, wery wuiet...I'm hunting wabbit!

Yep, the poor NHC must not be having fun at the moment trying to figure what is happening at the lower levels, its been a good 3-4hrs since the last good center pass so its a good job they are deciding to do a lower level pass.

[Frank P]

Per NHC this thing is really not supposed to get its hurricane act together until it gets into the GOM.. so why should be be surprised its still a TS? all in due time..

To be fair that more down to the fact its over land for msot of the time, the NHC seem to think the conditions will become condusive, perhaps very condusive, so its just land interaction that holds it back according to the NHC.

Northern vort looks stronger for the 2nd time on that microwave pass.

This is true but still it never forecast the Isaac to be nothing more than a TS... regardless of land interaction or not...