ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Weatherfreak000]

Interesting to note a few GFS ensembles shoot this north, was this the case before?

[Rgv20]

HPC afternoon discussion..

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
329 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 07 2012 - 12Z SAT AUG 11 2012

...ERNESTO MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST. THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOVES THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO DY 6/7. WHILE WE DO SEE THE TYPICAL
NORTH TO SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE BY THE LATER
PERIODS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLUSTERING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. ALSO...TRACKS SEEN IN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WITH
THE CYCLONE BEGINNING ITS LIFE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... IT IS
LESS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERLIES...INCLUDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE U.S. THIS GIVES US AT LEAST
SOME CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUING TO EXTRAPOLATE A WESTWARD
MOVEMENT...PER COORDINATION WITH NHC...AND DY 6/7...INDICATE A
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WELL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS COAST.
STILL...ANY POTENTIAL LANDFALL IN THE U.S. OR MEXICO WOULD OCCUR
NEAR THE END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...MEANING THERE STILL EXISTS A
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.
INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting to note a few GFS ensembles shoot this north, was this the case before?

Yeah a few 6z GFS ensemble members sent it north as well. Still, the consensus remains in central and northern Mexico.

[mcheer23]

Interesting to note a few GFS ensembles shoot this north, was this the case before?

Yeah a few 6z GFS ensemble members sent it north as well. Still, the consensus remains in central and northern Mexico.

A lot of GFS ensembles are further north in south texas and near the border now though

[HurricaneAndrew92]

At 5 we should see 60, at 11pm perhaps a hurricane???

[Weatherfreak000]

Interesting to note a few GFS ensembles shoot this north, was this the case before?

Yeah a few 6z GFS ensemble members sent it north as well. Still, the consensus remains in central and northern Mexico.

A lot of GFS ensembles are further north in south texas and near the border now though

Who knows...maybe if he gets any stronger, they'll keep shifting?

[mcheer23]

At 5 we should see 60, at 11pm perhaps a hurricane???

I strongly doubt at 11 a hurricane..

[Hurricane Alexis]

It probably never strengthened to 50kts last night as they upgraded the storm with no RECON in it, only updating it because the satellite loops looked very impressive.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convective growth has been temporarily been halted by peak daytime heating. Expect another huge burst shortly after sunset where Ernesto is located.

[Mouton]

My comment yesterday I am going to let stand with exception I meant Ivan, not Ike:

I think till Ernesto gets below Jamaca, we are not going to have a good handle on the future of this storm. If it is a deeping storm, perhaps a Cat 1, at that point, it should begin a poleward move. I don't see much anywhere to the northwest which is going to move this along anytime soon once it gets there so I do not look for a rapid run to the north. So, given the SSTs and lack of inhibiting factors, this one could go vertical. Given this senario, I'd look for an Ike like track.

If it remains a mid tropical storm south of Jamaca moving west at say 15kts or so, I expect it to not develop and move into the area south of Yucatan.

My concepts have no basis in any fact beyond my imagination so no one should rely upon my comments as they are not an official pronouncement.

[cycloneye]

Upper levels becoming favorable.

[KWT]

ECM pretty much destroys the system within 6hrs, so not sure too much weight should be put on that solution UNLESS it does poof in the next 6-12hrs (I doubt it but who knows!)

[HurricaneAndrew92]

What's the earliest time this could become a hurricane?

[bamajammer4eva]

ECM pretty much destroys the system within 6hrs, so not sure too much weight should be put on that solution UNLESS it does poof in the next 6-12hrs (I doubt it but who knows!)

I think this guy likes the Euro a lot

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Winds 100 miles south of center,or west should NOT BE BLOWING AWAY from center. WCI too strong for deepening, storm heading toward dry air

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Pressures have to fall, winds have to turn into storm for deepening. This may already be open on the south side, or close to it

Also

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
U have to understand, if storm is heading into dry air, it has to work to get rid of it. hence status quo pressure wise

[KWT]

Certainly got a good CDO going on from the looks of things. Lower level doesn't look too strong at the moment looking at recon but its surely only a matter of time before the winds pick up, and I think we'll really see this happen as the system slows down as it gets into the W/NW Caribbean.

[Shuriken]

Upper levels becoming favorable.

Note that Ernesto is generating that anticyclone from 200mb exhausting.

- - - -

[SouthDadeFish]

Hot tower firing?

[KWT]

The dry air that is present further west probably will be enough to keep Ernesto in check for a little while anyway, but I think given heat content only increases from here on, I think eventually it'll win that battle.

I also think its not perfectly stacked at the moment, I personally think the center is a touch NW of the main convective mass, but thats just subjective really!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Satellite shows an eye wall building or maybe microwave.

[RL3AO]

Still doesn't appear to have very good convergence at the surface.