ATL: ISAAC - Models

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meriland23
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#2461 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:29 pm

00hr GFS 18z

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#2462 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:30 pm

Well, lets see if the GFS moves farther west as the Euro did.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2463 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:32 pm

It looks like the GFS is going with the northern vortmax, which is probably wrong right off the bat

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#2464 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:32 pm

@meriland23 Glad you took the 18z GFS.. I get to eat dinner before a long night. Let's see where the computers put it one last time before the G-IV data makes it in.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2465 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:32 pm

gfs 12hr 18z

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2466 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:33 pm

I don't know if this has been posted yet but the Euro ensembles generally agrees with the OP going west building and extending the Atlantic ridge into the SE.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2467 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:34 pm

Not putting much stock in 18z run...It's the 0z tonight GFS/EURO that should start clearing things up.
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Re:

#2468 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:34 pm

Jevo wrote:@meriland23 Glad you took the 18z GFS.. I get to eat dinner before a long night. Let's see where the computers put it one last time before the G-IV data makes it in.



Yw, I am too, very interested in 0Z run with that new info..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2469 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:35 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Not putting much stock in 18z run...It's the 0z tonight GFS/EURO that should start clearing things up.


Yes as we should have more data from recon going into the 00z tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2470 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:36 pm

gfs 24hr 18z
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#2471 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:37 pm

Looks like the GFS is a little further to the south at 24hrs, maybe a smidge weaker as well.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2472 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:41 pm

gfs 36 hr 18z

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2473 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:43 pm

Almost a miss on Hispaniola.
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#2474 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:43 pm

Yep it sure does look further south on this run, scoots along the Haiti coast then back into the Caribbean, heading towards SE Cuba.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2475 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:43 pm

ROCK wrote:this is better resolution for the EURO run...thought you SWLA folks would like to see this...not that I hug the EURO or anything...


Looks almost like a Rita path.
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#2476 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:44 pm

What are we going to do if none of the models budge after getting the new data in tonight? :lol:
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Re:

#2477 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:44 pm

KWT wrote:Yep it sure does look further south on this run, scoots along the Haiti coast then back into the Caribbean, heading towards SE Cuba.


Seems very plausable, as to the position Isaac is now and the direction he is moving on satellite.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2478 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:45 pm

gfs 48hr 18 z

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2479 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:48 pm

gfs 60hr 18 z

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#2480 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:49 pm

18z GFS riding up the spine of Cuba, does look a touch further south than it was at this point on the 12z run.
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