ATL: ISAAC - Models

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wxwatcher1999
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#2481 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:50 pm

Gfs looks to be moving wnw at 60 hr
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2482 Postby petit_bois » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:50 pm

looking like the euro

and I wouldn't be surprised if the models don't change much at all with the
new data coming fron NOAA.
Last edited by petit_bois on Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2483 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:51 pm

Whoop...what do we have here? Looks like this run initialized as the broad circ. and stuck with the southern vort. center.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2484 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:53 pm

gfs 72 hr 18z

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2485 Postby blp » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:54 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2486 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:54 pm

Hours 72 and 75 appear to be interesting...Think a more NNW motion possibly.

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#2487 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:55 pm

Stronger ridge and flatter jet in the great lakes and maybe some weakness cased by the timing of Joyces change in speed. interesting....
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2488 Postby blp » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:55 pm

East shift makes landfall southern tip of Florida.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal078.gif
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2489 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:57 pm

gfs 84hr 18z

(from NNW to NW)

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ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2490 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:58 pm

Excellent view of the northern circulation in the last few frames of the high reoslution sat.imagery, movement is due west and looks pretty much closed. Not sure how long it'll last as its pretty well removed from any deep convection at the moment.

Probably going to do a loop around the broad center point unless it gets some convective meat on it.
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#2491 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:58 pm

Ha...sit here expecting a fastball and you get a slider breaking inside. FL EC not out of the realm of possible...but need the 12z to see if will stick.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2492 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:58 pm

The GFS seems that Joyce make a possible impact on Isaacs track

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#2493 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:58 pm

Comparing the 500mb maps, the weakness is just a bit wider and the western ridge more kind of squared off as opposed to extending over Isaac's path. that seems to have allowed a bit more latitude gain earlier.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2494 Postby blp » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:59 pm

84hr riding up the west coast. Now we need the Noaa data. We have the two big models going in different directions.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2495 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:00 pm

blp wrote:84hr riding up the west coast. Now we need the Noaa data. We have the two big models going in different directions.


Getting very interesting indeed!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2496 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:01 pm

blp wrote:84hr riding up the west coast. Now we need the Noaa data. We have the two big models going in different directions.


Yep, euro went way west...GFS going back right What a confusing mess, but I really don't know why I didn't expect that.
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Re:

#2497 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:01 pm

x-y-no wrote:Comparing the 500mb maps, the weakness is just a bit wider and the western ridge more kind of squared off as opposed to extending over Isaac's path. that seems to have allowed a bit more latitude gain earlier.


Just goes to show how very small differences is making a big difference to the actual outcome of this system.

Looks like its heading back into the gulf at 84hrs.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2498 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:01 pm

gfs 96hr 18z

(WNW)

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#2499 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:01 pm

Yeah big variable on Joyces strengh in that position i.e. slightly ahead (NE) Gotta believe a stronger Joyce equals more east if it happens that way.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2500 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:02 pm

meriland23 wrote:gfs 96hr 18z

(WNW)

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Wow..what a path
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