ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241257
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 20 20120624
125000 2717N 08546W 8118 01808 //// +158 //// 232049 050 034 001 01
125030 2719N 08547W 8114 01809 //// +159 //// 230047 050 035 001 01
125100 2720N 08548W 8121 01801 //// +164 //// 229047 047 036 002 01
125130 2721N 08550W 8121 01799 //// +165 //// 230047 048 037 001 01
125200 2722N 08551W 8117 01804 //// +167 //// 229047 048 036 002 01
125230 2723N 08552W 8119 01799 //// +164 //// 228048 049 035 002 01
125300 2724N 08553W 8121 01797 //// +162 //// 226048 049 033 002 01
125330 2725N 08555W 8121 01796 //// +163 //// 229045 047 035 001 01
125400 2727N 08556W 8117 01793 //// +164 //// 229044 045 033 002 01
125430 2728N 08557W 8118 01790 //// +166 //// 227042 044 035 001 01
125500 2729N 08559W 8124 01782 //// +169 //// 227041 042 032 002 01
125530 2730N 08600W 8117 01790 //// +173 //// 227039 040 033 001 01
125600 2731N 08601W 8120 01783 //// +175 //// 225039 040 032 001 01
125630 2732N 08602W 8121 01783 //// +175 //// 224036 038 032 000 01
125700 2734N 08604W 8120 01781 //// +175 //// 226034 035 031 001 01
125730 2735N 08605W 8114 01785 //// +174 //// 226034 034 030 001 01
125800 2736N 08606W 8119 01777 //// +172 //// 228031 034 027 001 01
125830 2737N 08608W 8117 01779 //// +174 //// 231030 031 024 003 01
125900 2738N 08609W 8121 01774 //// +178 //// 233032 033 023 002 01
125930 2739N 08610W 8117 01779 //// +175 //// 236031 032 023 002 01
$$
;

[HoumaLa]

the area that has the wrapping starting is that the center

[WeatherGuesser]

Comments Appreciated.

Don't understand the need or purpose or function.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Comments Appreciated.

Don't understand the need or purpose or function.

Well....uh.....I can issue something.

On a side note, does anyone have any good maps of the gulf coast, with counties?

[ronjon]

Pretty strong rotational signatures on some cells in Gulf WNW of Ft. Myers neading NNE at about 40 mph

I imagine very gusty winds in that signature. Let's see if it holds together as it moves towards Tampa. Is there any concern of some surge effects from this as far as Tampa Bay is concerned? Especially if the gfs verifies. I know systems that make landfall north of Tampa can cause issues esp with the sw flow building up water into the bay. Bayshore area comes to mind.

Coastal issues sure if GFS track verifies. Keep in mind, the GFS operational was indicating a more sheared system to move ENE Tuesday, looks like Debby is organizing a bit more than GFS depicted so that throws that off a bit.

As far as that cell to the SSW of the coast, it is still rotating a bit at the tail end of a very heavy rain squall. Even a few lightning strikes there too. COuld be a Pinellas coastal issue short term. Not a surge problem, but a waterspout/tornado issue.

Although the 00z CMC showed a strong storm heading into the FL Big Bend which would cause coastal issues too.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 241307
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 21 20120624
130000 2741N 08612W 8118 01774 //// +173 //// 243031 032 023 001 01
130030 2742N 08613W 8120 01770 //// +179 //// 246030 031 018 001 01
130100 2743N 08614W 8123 01765 //// +172 //// 244029 031 017 002 01
130130 2744N 08615W 8120 01770 //// +168 //// 242025 028 018 001 01
130200 2744N 08615W 8120 01770 //// +170 //// 241022 023 018 002 01
130230 2747N 08617W 8122 01764 //// +174 //// 238019 021 021 001 01
130300 2749N 08618W 8118 01768 //// +177 //// 240016 017 018 002 01
130330 2750N 08618W 8121 01764 //// +176 //// 245016 017 003 004 01
130400 2752N 08619W 8119 01766 //// +179 //// 260014 015 002 002 05
130430 2753N 08620W 8116 01768 //// +181 //// 267010 013 000 002 05
130500 2755N 08620W 8118 01765 //// +189 //// 294007 009 001 003 05
130530 2757N 08620W 8115 01765 //// +192 //// 311005 006 000 002 05
130600 2758N 08619W 8115 01765 //// +190 //// 278003 004 000 003 05
130630 2759N 08618W 8119 01763 //// +190 //// 258002 003 000 002 05
130700 2800N 08617W 8118 01764 //// +189 //// 227003 004 000 002 05
130730 2801N 08615W 8121 01760 //// +182 //// 213006 008 /// /// 05
130800 2802N 08613W 8121 01763 //// +183 //// 210011 011 000 004 05
130830 2801N 08611W 8121 01764 //// +182 //// 202014 015 005 003 01
130900 2801N 08609W 8119 01765 //// +180 //// 196017 018 004 002 01
130930 2801N 08607W 8119 01768 //// +180 //// 189019 020 008 001 01

[N2FSU]

Jim Cantore on TWC now alluding to what has been said on here for quite awhile now, NHC may have to shift their track as far east as the Florida panhandle, and for possibly a landfalling hurricane. He made it clear that has NOT happened, but that it's a possibility.

[Annie Oakley]

I can help out with hdobs if needed-but not the graphics....

[AHS2011]

What are the chances that Debby becomes the first major hurricane of the season?

[Nimbus]

We get a few more convection center relocations north with the official NHC forecast but then the shear from the south diminishes. A westerly track at that point isn't all bad as proximity to land issues might inhibit development. Nola could experience cat 1 gusts but perhaps the greater danger would be from flooding.

Sounds like some of the pros think Houston will end up on the weak side of the storm. Could hook NW inland near the LA border. Fortunately there haven't been too many cat 4 storms making landfall in June so climo is in our favor.

[linkerweather]

Jim Cantore on TWC now alluding to what has been said on here for quite awhile now, NHC may have to shift their track as far east as the Florida panhandle, and for possibly a landfalling hurricane. He made it clear that has NOT happened, but that it's a possibility.

I would imaging a big switch but the NHC doesn't like to make dramatic shifts from advisory to advisory. Regardless I think moving the warning eastward at 8 am was a good move. I would think a further push of a warning through the Big Bend would make sense.
And to someones point about the 00z CMC, good point.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Could someone else take over graphics?

[KWT]

Gosh yeah the ensembles are everywhere, big ole spread there though there is higher agreement on it being further west than the operational...though in this case I think the operational will be closer to the mark.

[RL3AO]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241321
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 22 20120624
131430 2800N 08548W 8115 01795 //// +173 //// 197038 039 /// /// 09
131500 2800N 08548W 8115 01795 //// +173 //// 197038 039 /// /// 09
131530 2800N 08544W 8115 01795 //// +168 //// 202036 036 /// /// 05
131600 2800N 08542W 8120 01792 //// +164 //// 204035 036 /// /// 05
131630 2800N 08540W 8118 01797 //// +163 //// 204037 037 /// /// 05
131700 2759N 08538W 8119 01798 //// +159 //// 202039 039 /// /// 05
131730 2759N 08536W 8121 01796 //// +158 //// 200039 040 /// /// 05
131800 2759N 08534W 8118 01802 //// +161 //// 198040 040 /// /// 05
131830 2759N 08532W 8120 01803 //// +159 //// 198041 042 /// /// 05
131900 2759N 08531W 8117 01806 //// +162 //// 199042 042 /// /// 05
131930 2759N 08529W 8119 01806 //// +159 //// 199043 045 /// /// 05
132000 2759N 08527W 8121 01806 //// +155 //// 198042 043 /// /// 05
132030 2759N 08525W 8118 01809 //// +156 //// 200040 041 /// /// 05
132100 2758N 08523W 8118 01810 //// +162 //// 195044 044 /// /// 05
132130 2758N 08521W 8118 01813 //// +161 //// 198046 047 /// /// 05
132200 2758N 08519W 8117 01814 //// +159 //// 202047 048 /// /// 05
132230 2758N 08517W 8121 01811 //// +160 //// 203048 048 023 001 05
132300 2758N 08515W 8121 01814 //// +160 //// 202048 048 023 001 01
132330 2758N 08513W 8117 01813 //// +164 //// 202047 048 024 002 01
132400 2758N 08511W 8121 01812 //// +162 //// 203047 048 026 002 01
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Very impressive feeder band now about 50 miles offshore Pinellas County beaches...some reds showing up and the band is about 30-40 miles across. I would imagine some waterspouts and very gusty winds accompany this band:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Aquawind]

Seems rather odd there is no Tornado Watch for Florida.. We had multiple warnings yesterday with damage and injury. This morning already had a Warning with plenty of cells firing up and yet no watch.. Rotation was noted earlier in cells off shore.

[Sanibel]

Pulses of strong gusts with a spray fog of tiny drop rain then no wind here.

[KWT]

What are the chances that Debby becomes the first major hurricane of the season?

Very slim, I doubt the coastal shelf would be able to support it even if the upper conditions do improve in a huge way (thanks to days of upwelling due to this system.) I do think the chances of a hurricane though are looking decent now.

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/13:06:50Z
B. 28 deg 00 min N
086 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1366 m
D. 37 kt
E. 138 deg 98 nm
F. 235 deg 55 kt
G. 140 deg 83 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 16 C / 1828 m
J. 19 C / 1825 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 09
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 12:40:00Z
;

[gatorcane]

Seems rather odd there is no Tornado Watch for Florida.. We had multiple warnings yesterday with damage and injury. This morning already had a Warning with plenty of cells firing up and yet no watch.. Rotation was noted earlier in cells off shore.

I am surprised looking what is approaching Tampa Bay right now...I would think they are going to issue some statements for Pinellas County. The band continues to intensify and is rapidly approaching the Pinellas County beaches.