ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Stormlover2012
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2521 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:13 pm

yep this is about another 100 mile shift west!!
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#2522 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:14 pm

18z reaks of a Georges 1998 senario...slightly jump north off Cuba into the Keys then WNW toward the cetnral gulf, then lollygagging on the final approach as it buts up againsts high.
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#2523 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:14 pm

I have a fever...and the prescription is MORE recon...
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#2524 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:14 pm

Well the GFS run is just about the furthest west run I've seen from that model yet with Issac.
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#2525 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:14 pm

Farther east in the beginning, farther west in the end. pheww
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2526 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:15 pm

nah I think the trend is going to come west, I mean don't forget last sunday gfs had a texas hit
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2527 Postby micktooth » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:15 pm

GFS looks like Biloxi, EURO looks like LA/TX border. If I were still living in NOLA, I would start to research hotel reservations about now.

NOT an official forecast, just an opinion of someone who used to live in New Orleans!
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Re:

#2528 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:15 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:I have a fever...and the prescription is MORE recon...



Need some mo ..Walken :wink:
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#2529 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:16 pm

That is one crazy, unusual track!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2530 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:16 pm

Well that was an interesting tour of the SE GOM states that the GFS just led us on...I'll be interested to see some of the 00z models come in starting around 8:00PM tonight and then wait for the biggies at 11:30PM and 2:00AM. Which reminds me, I need to put some coffee on and start drinking it.

SFT :yayaya:
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#2531 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:17 pm

18z GFS misses the trough connection like the Euro which is why it keeps heading NW after landfall.
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Re:

#2532 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:17 pm

pgoss11 wrote:That is one crazy, unusual track!


I must admit I'm struggling to think of many systems that have taken that track, the weakness isn't quite enough to take it away and it gets shunted back WNW. Would have plenty of time over water to strengthen if that run was right.
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#2533 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:17 pm

Also slow approaches on the northern gulf usually mean weaker, storm although it can still cause trouble. Goerges never recouperated fully after the islands, made a cat 2 landfall, but it still brought a 16 foot surge in eastern Jackson county MS and MObily county and 2 feet of rain.
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#2534 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:18 pm

Dont get caught up in this run. the 6z and 18z include little to no additional data. if you look at the gfs ensemble members some were and have been for the past few days come this far west. nothing new here. 00z will be a whole new ball game even if the track does not change with the upper air data. it just eliminates the variable that the models are not getting all the data. I have a feeling that we will see little to no change with the ooz runs.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2535 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:18 pm

What a crazy track but I think it may be picking up on the stronger ridge like the EURO.
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Re:

#2536 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z GFS misses the trough connection like the Euro which is why it keeps heading NW after landfall.


Bad for the Gulf Coast but good for the Midwest...For the sake of the farmers who are dealing with the drought it would be nice to see this head in the direction the models are pointing as maybe a Tropical Storm and bring them some much needed rain. Could be a drought buster. But with that being said the potential when it gets in the GOM to blow up is unnerving.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2537 Postby MidnightRain » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:19 pm

I really am being cautious about the models atm. Go to the disc. thread, this system is not in great shape at and may not even make it out of the Carib alive. I think we need to take that into consideration when digesting these models.
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#2538 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:19 pm

I think I need a very large ice cream cone after that craziness.. pff
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#2539 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:20 pm

The 00Z models are truly the ones to watch. I'd ignore the 18Z model runs personally.
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#2540 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:22 pm

Someone on the other board did a comprasion between the 18z GFS strength of the ridge and the actual figures, and the GFS has a good grip on the mid level of the ridge from the looks of things.
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