ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Low Level Convergence is increasing.

[Texashawk]

Vorts or not, multiple centers or not, this thing still looks like it has no northward component to it. I'm looking at the system as a whole, not any particular spin. And the DR is moving by fast up north....

[Texashawk]

On a related note, how much farther west does Isaac have to slide before we start to talk about shooting the Yucatan channel completely?

[Shuriken]

(Hurricane Gilbert) didn't scrape by Dominican Republic. It was a good 2 1/2 degrees south of there at the time it strengthened to a cat 3.

It was a very large storm; banding went over the the Dominican Republic.

Gilbert completely obscuring all of Hispaniola:

[Stormlover2012]

and hey that gilbert run could happen with issac, with the high pressure building in to the southeast

[stormhunter7]

From Twitter:

HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 #Isaac: On east-west pass, lightning display here. Winds at flight-level from east, suggesting flight-level center is south of us.

These poor guys still can't pinpoint the center.. Going to be interesting to see what the 0z runs initialize with

I've heard in the past, that if lightning is present during a hurricane/tropical storm..it either means its intensifying..or actually diminishing in intensity. Not sure how reliable that is, so maybe someone with more knowledge than I have, can address that issue.

Yes this is somewhat true.. but you have to have one main surface center... and it stacks up through the atmosphere. With Isaac right now, we have a disorganized system, mainly due to easterly winds i think... not really "dry air"... Lightning occurs mainly in Tropical Systems when you get "Hot Towers"... also known as Thunderstorms.. which usually with a High built above a hurricane, these towers can shoot up high and there's "wind" causing the lift, motion, etc. Isaac is not really intensifying ATM, based on what i see.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like maybe the northern vort is taking over.. convection appears to be wrapping

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-short.html

[LaBreeze]

Just checked the 10 day forecast for my home town on The Weather Channel, and they say we need to watching the Tropics for Thursday. Just look up the zipcode 70526 and do the 10 day forecast to see it for yourself.

Hey Blinhart - I'm south of you in Vermilion Parish. Not liking the idea of a storm, but hey- that's part of living where we do. Just be prepared and watch.

[BigB0882]

and hey that gilbert run could happen with issac, with the high pressure building in to the southeast

We know all about the high building into the southeast. You have mentioned this 1000 times tonight. You can have him, it is all yours.

[ROCK]

pick a center any center....1 in 3 chance of being correct.... what a mess.....HH on the way out....



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[Comanche]

Just looking at the core blob of convection, this appears to be moving somewhere between 270/280 in general with the heaviest convection further south. Unless it either starts a quick turn NW, and/or reforms heavy convection further north, it will miss Hispanola all together............by a decent margin.

Like you said many times before Aric, look at the movement of the blob in general.

[WeatherOrKnot]

Local Met in WPB is telling people that we will be out of the cone soon and that South Florida looks to be safe.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like maybe the northern vort is taking over.. convection appears to be wrapping

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-short.html

Looks like it's just rotating around again.

[frederic79]

Guess I am a little anxious to see what the 10pm updated track shows... my house is about 6 miles inland on the AL/MS state line in Grand Bay. Not in a flood zone but still wouldn't want a major bearing down on me. I know what Frederic did to this area back in 1979, taking a similar path.

[ROCK]

Looks like maybe the northern vort is taking over.. convection appears to be wrapping

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-short.html

Loose the rainbow loop and go IR....I always find it easier on the eyes....

[SunnyThoughts]

Guess I am a little anxious to see what the 10pm updated track shows... my house is about 6 miles inland on the AL/MS state line in Grand Bay. Not in a flood zone but still wouldn't want a major bearing down on me. I know what Frederic did to this area back in 1979, taking a similar path.

Lots of anxious folks for sure all along the gulf coast. All we can do is be prepared and deal with whatever comes our way the best way we can. I'm only about 1 mile from Pensacola Bay..and have a daughter expecting her 3rd child in 3 weeks, so I'm more anxious than I would be normally.

[SFLcane]

question..

If the 5 pm advisory said the llc was to be at 16.6 in 12 hours, but the center is already at 16.5 as per recon findings tonight also heading WNW/NW might this not shift the track back east a bit?

[SeminoleWind]

that windsat image looks like a bowl of fruity pebbles, what a crazy mess that is.

[Blown Away]

Looks like maybe the northern vort is taking over.. convection appears to be wrapping

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-short.html

Give lat/long of the area you are referring to?

[deltadog03]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...