ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

Cutoff low has formed west of Sandy

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 1505626973

What does that mean for Sandy and the impact?
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MaryEllen71]

Just watched a report on NBC New York: No one in the Rockaways apparently left.

They feel they got burned with Irene and they don't want to leave now. Sad.

did the Rockaways flood during the '62 nor'easter? That's the benchmark I've been using.

From I've seen on other forums that people in NYC are not taking this serious and that its going to be another Irene.

[GCANE]

Good Theta-e advection into the system from the east side of the circulation

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 1505921767

Strong lift on the west side of the circulation

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 1505981766

Good Ozone Column feed coming down from MN

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/imag ... 3.0900.gif

[GCANE]

Cutoff low has formed west of Sandy

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 1505626973

What does that mean for Sandy and the impact?
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Models most likely accounted for this already.

Will give Sandy a Fujiwhara spin - causing Sandy and the Cutoff Low to circulate CCW around each other.

This is what will draw Sandy NW into the coast.

[jaxfladude]

Cutoff low has formed west of Sandy

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 1505626973

What does that mean for Sandy and the impact?
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Models most likely accounted for this already.

Will give Sandy a Fujiwhara spin - causing Sandy and the Cutoff Low to circulate CCW around each other.

This is what will draw Sandy NW into the coast.

Thanks....hope all in the huge impact areas make it out safe....

[KWT]

Pressure down to 941mbs now, looks like Sandy is indeed strengthening, and looking at it, its still tropical strengthening as well as convection is deepening again.

[tomboudreau]

Just watched a report on NBC New York: No one in the Rockaways apparently left.

They feel they got burned with Irene and they don't want to leave now. Sad.

did the Rockaways flood during the '62 nor'easter? That's the benchmark I've been using.

From I've seen on other forums that people in NYC are not taking this serious and that its going to be another Irene.

Would people have taken this more seriously if the mayor did not take the approach he took on Saturday? Instead of going with no evacuation, he said get out now. Would people have listened and gotten to safer ground? This has the makings to be a horrible disaster.

[ObsessedMiami]

Just watched a report on NBC New York: No one in the Rockaways apparently left.

They feel they got burned with Irene and they don't want to leave now. Sad.

did the Rockaways flood during the '62 nor'easter? That's the benchmark I've been using.

From I've seen on other forums that people in NYC are not taking this serious and that its going to be another Irene.

No one can claim they weren't warned. Unfortunately, the best case scenario (lower surge than expected) will only increase the complacency. Don't get why people would take the risk. I blame Bloombergs Saturday night briefing.

[WeatherGuesser]

Not really into placing blame, but I feel the NHC should have continued posting TS and H Warnings. Winds and intensity aside, people tend to listen more when those are posted rather than the high wind warnings currently in use.

[Terry]

Sorry if this has already been posted:

The Coast Guard is responding to a distressed vessel with 17 people aboard approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras N.C.
Crews received a call from the owner of the 180-foot, three mast tall ship, HMS Bounty, saying she had lost communication with the vessel’s crew late Sunday evening.
An air crew from Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City launched aboard an HC-130 Hercules aircraft, which later arrived on scene and reestablished communications with the Bounty’s crew.
The vessel is reportedly taking on water and is without propulsion. The Coast Guard is continuing to monitor the Bounty’s situation.
The vessel is about 160 miles west of the eye of hurricane Sandy.

[SouthernBreeze]

Note: This metions Katrina - from an economic comparison only....
Quoted in USA Today Newspaper today:
"Meteorologist Mike Smith of AccuWeather said damage, including losses to the economy, could top $100 billion — “worse than Katrina,” the killer 2005 storm that struck the Gulf Coast.

[KBBOCA]

One of the other amazing things about this storm... and there are MANY!... is the incredible ways the models nailed this truly COMPLEX scenario so perfectly early on. I can't remember when I've seen a forecast verify so nearly perfectly close to 5 days out.

It's sad to see the strengthening and pressure drop, knowing the impact they will cause. But these WERE forecast.

This is truly one for the history books and really shows the value of all the work that's been put into models and forecasting in recent years.

I'm sad that Bloomberg downplayed the storm so greatly until mid-day yesterday. The forecast was the same on Friday. The data was there... I'm truly afraid lives will be lost because of the waffling and the "this won't be a hurricane" "not as bad as Irene" comments.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

Well folks,here is some humor to mix it with the bad things.

[pgoss11]

One of the other amazing things about this storm... and there are MANY!... is the incredible ways the models nailed this truly COMPLEX scenario so perfectly early on. I can't remember when I've seen a forecast verify so nearly perfectly close to 5 days out.

It's sad to see the strengthening and pressure drop, knowing the impact they will cause. But these WERE forecast.

This is truly one for the history books and really shows the value of all the work that's been put into models and forecasting in recent years.

I'm sad that Bloomberg downplayed the storm so greatly until mid-day yesterday. The forecast was the same on Friday. The data was there... I'm truly afraid lives will be lost because of the waffling and the "this won't be a hurricane" "not as bad as Irene" comments.

I agree. Kudos to the NHC for doing such an amazingly accurate forecast from 5 days out. Considering this is an unprecedented storm, they have been outstanding with their forecasts.

[storm4u]

i needed that laugh this morning thank you most people are prepared up here I think we will see how everything happens threw the day but alot of people are in for a ride like they have not seen

Good morning to all.

Well folks,here is some humor to mix it with the bad things.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ar ... 395869.jpg

[Peach]

One of the other amazing things about this storm... and there are MANY!... is the incredible ways the models nailed this truly COMPLEX scenario so perfectly early on. I can't remember when I've seen a forecast verify so nearly perfectly close to 5 days out.

It's sad to see the strengthening and pressure drop, knowing the impact they will cause. But these WERE forecast.

This is truly one for the history books and really shows the value of all the work that's been put into models and forecasting in recent years.

I'm sad that Bloomberg downplayed the storm so greatly until mid-day yesterday. The forecast was the same on Friday. The data was there... I'm truly afraid lives will be lost because of the waffling and the "this won't be a hurricane" "not as bad as Irene" comments.

The NJ Governor didn't seem to notice her until late Saturday, bellowing GET OUT as mas transit shut down doesn't help. I read Bloomberg's warnings as tough, Cuomo, somewhat. Of all, Bloomberg appears to have been the NO NONSENSE man. Still, how can anyone convnce the "little rain, little wind, some snow" crowd? I've read some here say this is OVERHYPED. How CAN one OVERHYPE 800-1000 miles of storm system?

[GCANE]

Nicely defined core at 4.5C, 500mb altitude

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/2012/ ... _xsect.gif

GFS pretty much has it that way to landfall, asymmetric

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20121 ... east_3.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png

[weatherwindow]

Sorry I might have missed it..has the Port of NYC been closed yet by the USCG?

[KBBOCA]

Sorry I might have missed it..has the Port of NYC been closed yet by the USCG?

I believe it closed at 6 or 7 last night, which is why some of the cruise ships had to leave a day earlier than scheduled, without even taking on all the needed food, etc. for their trip. So Carnival Miracle (and others?) are headed down to Port Canaveral to stock up before heading to Bahamas.

[SNOW_JOKE]

The curve has begun http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif