ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Infeed from the SE has 3000 CAPE air.

West side is 2000 CAPE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=19#

[HoumaLa]

what time does the NHC update i forgot

[cycloneye]

what time does the NHC update i forgot

10 AM CDT is the next advisory.

[Aquawind]

quote]

Very heavy rain and wind yes, but that area doesn't appear to be rotating any longer. Although East of Ft. Myers some cells look suspect moving North

There was a warning in lee county as you posted that. Correction shortly after..unless my timing is off..lol

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 900 AM EDT * AT 830 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF BABCOCK WEBB WMA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF FORT MYERS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BABCOCK WEBB WMA. BABCOCK RANCH.[/quote]


Sorry but again.. Multiple warnings here yesterday with damage and injury.. Already a warning today. Radar has cells developing and moving onshore. We have a organizing hence intensifying system that is basicaly stationary.. even if the watch is north of us it seems like more Warnings will be issued..With no other weather or watches related to the storm whatsoever so no real heads up for the public. What is the problem?[/quote]

Another Warning... Where is the heads up Watch?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 1030 AM EDT * AT 1000 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO NEAR LIMESTONE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF ARCADIA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LIMESTONE. ONA. FORT GREEN.

Edit..Sorry the quotes got whacked..not trying to pick on anyone..just want an answer.

[tolakram]

Edit..Sorry the quotes got whacked..not trying to pick on anyone..just want an answer.

What is your question?

Another Warning... Where is the heads up Watch?

You want a severe thunderstorm watch?

[carpe vinum]

Really curious about what NHC is seeing to doggedly hold this Texas track when virtually everything about past, present, and future conditions appear to point to the panhandle since it left the Yuc Pen. /befuddled

[OuterBanker]

LOL, just like this post from JB on his twitter blog.

Kinda says it all.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 42/photo/1

Like someone grabbed a hand full of darts and just threw them at the gulf and se coast.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241417
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 28 20120624
141000 2834N 08551W 8121 01795 //// +165 //// 134019 020 003 002 01
141030 2832N 08553W 8119 01797 //// +164 //// 143018 018 004 002 01
141100 2831N 08554W 8116 01798 //// +165 //// 147017 017 005 002 01
141130 2830N 08555W 8121 01793 //// +164 //// 143016 016 006 001 01
141200 2829N 08556W 8117 01796 //// +165 //// 136016 016 004 002 01
141230 2828N 08558W 8117 01795 //// +166 //// 135015 016 007 002 01
141300 2827N 08559W 8121 01790 //// +168 //// 135015 015 006 002 01
141330 2825N 08601W 8118 01791 //// +165 //// 127015 015 009 001 01
141400 2824N 08602W 8117 01790 //// +165 //// 115013 014 012 002 01
141430 2823N 08603W 8123 01784 //// +165 //// 108013 013 008 003 01
141500 2822N 08605W 8118 01787 //// +166 //// 098013 014 005 003 05
141530 2820N 08605W 8120 01782 //// +169 //// 092014 014 003 003 01
141600 2819N 08606W 8119 01782 //// +170 //// 097012 013 004 003 05
141630 2817N 08606W 8120 01781 //// +168 //// 105009 012 005 004 01
141700 2815N 08606W 8117 01781 //// +164 //// 102010 012 008 006 01
141730 2814N 08606W 8121 01777 //// +169 //// 076008 009 002 004 05
141800 2812N 08607W 8114 01785 //// +169 //// 122005 007 001 005 01
141830 2810N 08606W 8121 01777 //// +169 //// 128007 009 006 002 01
141900 2809N 08607W 8122 01779 //// +171 //// 134008 010 010 003 05
141930 2807N 08608W 8114 01785 //// +178 //// 130005 007 001 003 01
$$

[tolakram]

Really curious about what NHC is seeing to doggedly hold this Texas track when virtually everything about past, present, and future conditions appear to point to the panhandle since it left the Yuc Pen. /befuddled

Since I don't know as much about hurricane forecasting as the NHC I can't answer that question. I think we need more patience and less assumptions today. Until Debbie makes landfall somewhere besides Texas this talk of NHC being wrong is premature.

[cycloneye]

Anyone who may have local statements or warnings can post them on the Debby Advisories thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113020&p=2234663#p2234663

[artist]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE
PARK...AND THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ALL AREA RIVER AND STREAMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES TO
THREE QUARTER BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE FOLLOWING POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GO
INTO A MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... e=warnings

FLC049-241430-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120624T1430Z/
HARDEE FL-
1011 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EDT FOR WESTERN
HARDEE COUNTY...

AT 1009 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ONA...OR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ONA.
FORT GREEN.

[tolakram]

Model roundup. From yesterday June 23rd, 12Z run

48 hours

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1016 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA...
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE
PARK...AND THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ALL AREA RIVER AND STREAMS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES TO
THREE QUARTER BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE FOLLOWING POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GO
INTO A MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

[HouTXmetro]

Really curious about what NHC is seeing to doggedly hold this Texas track when virtually everything about past, present, and future conditions appear to point to the panhandle since it left the Yuc Pen. /befuddled

Since I don't know as much about hurricane forecasting as the NHC I can't answer that question. I think we need more patience and less assumptions today. Until Debbie makes landfall somewhere besides Texas this talk of NHC being wrong is premature.

I couldn't agree with you more. I don't know how many times I went against the NHC and ended up with a whole lot of egg on my face. Keep in mind that much of the LA coast was well within the cone and there was never a landfall in their forecast. So for now I'd layoff the NHC.

[tolakram]

Today, June 24th, 0z run

48 hours

[tolakram]

Right now only the Canadian is close to landfall 48 hours. I'll post all the landfall graphics later today, when I have more time.

[robbielyn]

I could swear the center is reforming under the convection east of the center at 85 W can anyone comment thats an experienced met like Josh or key or Ann plz?

[drezee]

12z NAM still offshore at 48 hours....

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241428
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 29 20120624
142000 2806N 08610W 8119 01779 //// +180 //// 098003 004 000 001 01
142030 2805N 08611W 8119 01779 //// +184 //// 058003 004 000 004 05
142100 2803N 08612W 8119 01779 //// +185 //// 029003 004 000 003 05
142130 2802N 08613W 8119 01777 //// +183 //// 020006 008 /// /// 05
142200 2803N 08615W 8115 01782 //// +176 //// 027010 011 000 004 05
142230 2804N 08616W 8127 01774 //// +175 //// 028012 013 000 003 05
142300 2806N 08616W 8119 01781 //// +175 //// 035013 013 002 002 05
142330 2807N 08617W 8119 01781 //// +175 //// 037015 016 /// /// 05
142400 2809N 08618W 8119 01782 //// +175 //// 041018 020 002 002 01
142430 2810N 08619W 8121 01784 //// +174 //// 041022 023 023 002 01
142500 2811N 08620W 8115 01788 //// +173 //// 044024 024 032 002 01
142530 2812N 08622W 8121 01785 //// +167 //// 043023 025 032 003 01
142600 2813N 08623W 8119 01788 //// +161 //// 047022 023 032 005 01
142630 2815N 08624W 8121 01788 //// +169 //// 045023 023 033 002 01
142700 2816N 08626W 8118 01793 //// +163 //// 043024 027 036 003 01
142730 2817N 08627W 8119 01792 //// +152 //// 037021 023 036 003 01
142800 2818N 08628W 8121 01792 //// +165 //// 039022 022 037 004 01
142830 2819N 08630W 8121 01793 //// +174 //// 039021 022 039 002 01
142900 2820N 08631W 8121 01795 //// +173 //// 036020 021 040 002 01
142930 2822N 08632W 8118 01799 //// +174 //// 036019 020 040 003 01
$$

[tolakram]

Very true. I had forgotten that, right now, the NHC has not forecast any landfall. Thus the importance of knowing the cone.