ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Stormlover2012]

greg boswick in the beaumont area and patrick vaughn

[BigB0882]

greg boswick in the beaumont area and patrick vaughn

I will not disrespect their skills in the least but I am from Beaumont, TX and those guys all tend to really overhype any possible scenario. I'm not saying they don't know what they are talking about but they do tend to really latch onto any model showing a SETX landfall and run with it. Just from my experience.

[djmikey]

our met thats here in the upper texas coast and hes as good as it gets said that the trend is going to keep on coming west and that high pressure is going to build southeast and said that it doesnt matter how strong it gets it will keep trending west

Was it Greg Bostwick? He seems to think a westward motion towards TX is possible! Depending on that ridge!!!

[Frank P]

Expecting a rather large change in the track tonight. The trends aren't looking good for Louisiana.

HWRF definitely more west.. dang... NHC does not normally make large changes in track from run to run but I feel a west shift is in the making, not sure how much, but would not be surprised to see it around the MS/AL line at the minimum.. just my unprofessional SWAG at best... always follow the NHC for their forecasts because they are the best in the business...

[Stormlover2012]

Boswick don't hype things that guy is so not a hyper, he has been showing this for 2 days now

[djmikey]

Boswick don't hype things that guy is so not a hyper, he has been showing this for 2 days now

Botwick is awesome when it comes to hurricane season!! He is ALWAYS careful what he puts out on the air.

[sphelps8681]

our met thats here in the upper texas coast and hes as good as it gets said that the trend is going to keep on coming west and that high pressure is going to build southeast and said that it doesnt matter how strong it gets it will keep trending west

Was it Greg Bostwick? He seems to think a westward motion towards TX is possible! Depending on that ridge!!!

I heard Greg say the same thing. He has always been the lighter of two. He said the ridge would start to retreat to the east. If i want to get pump up more i listen to the other guy. He is still very good just a little more dramatic.

[Jevo]

18z HWRF +108



18z HWRF +114



18z HWRF +120

[Weatherfreak000]

Texas landfall? Maybe if he stays super weak and hits the channel ...long live king euro! Lol

[weatherrabbit_tx]

our met thats here in the upper texas coast and hes as good as it gets said that the trend is going to keep on coming west and that high pressure is going to build southeast and said that it doesnt matter how strong it gets it will keep trending west

Was it Greg Bostwick? He seems to think a westward motion towards TX is possible! Depending on that ridge!!!

just heard abc's 13 (houston) met say that too more shifting....didn't elude which way. left it at that!

[Aric Dunn]

Expecting a rather large change in the track tonight. The trends aren't looking good for Louisiana.

HWRF definitely more west.. dang... NHC does not normally make large changes in track from run to run but I feel a west shift is in the making, not sure how much, but would not be surprised to see it around the MS/AL line at the minimum.. just my unprofessional SWAG at best... always follow the NHC for their forecasts because they are the best in the business...

well just like 2 days ago it was west then yesterday it was east now its back west. its a flag flapping in the wind. no need for anyone to make absolute statements nor can they. we will know more tonight and more in a couple days after the system gets near the islands and the players are actually in place right now the trof is still over the NW/ ne pacific the weakness is not there. so until those start falling into place no one can say much except analyze the model outputs. notice where the gulf stream is now flying north of hispaniola and pr because right now the ridging there is whats steering the system. in a couple days the gulfstream will be sampling area over the western atlantic and gulf and so on. right now we just dont know past essentially 48 hours.

[BigB0882]

Sorry, didn't mean to start anything it was just my opinion and no reflection on his skills. I am obviously in the minority so I will assume that my mind has gone to mush since moving from Beaumont and my memory is just not the best.

Back to model talk: Thank you to the Euro for NOT doing 6z and 18z runs so that I may have time to eat and sleep...occasionally.

[Stormlover2012]

one thing they keep talking about is the high pressure building to the southeast and all the models are now starting to show this

[Senobia]

Boswick don't hype things that guy is so not a hyper, he has been showing this for 2 days now

Botwick is awesome when it comes to hurricane season!! He is ALWAYS careful what he puts out on the air.

Bostwick

[Aric Dunn]

our met thats here in the upper texas coast and hes as good as it gets said that the trend is going to keep on coming west and that high pressure is going to build southeast and said that it doesnt matter how strong it gets it will keep trending west

Was it Greg Bostwick? He seems to think a westward motion towards TX is possible! Depending on that ridge!!!

just heard abc's 13 (houston) met say that too more shifting....didn't elude which way. left it at that!

yeah and yesterday a well known NC met said expect the models to shift east putting the SE and carolinas under the gun. listen to the nhc above all else.

[Frank P]

Expecting a rather large change in the track tonight. The trends aren't looking good for Louisiana.

HWRF definitely more west.. dang... NHC does not normally make large changes in track from run to run but I feel a west shift is in the making, not sure how much, but would not be surprised to see it around the MS/AL line at the minimum.. just my unprofessional SWAG at best... always follow the NHC for their forecasts because they are the best in the business...

well just like 2 days ago it was west then yesterday it was east now its back west. its a flag flapping in the wind. no need for anyone to make absolute statements nor can they. we will know more tonight and more in a couple days after the system gets near the islands and the players are actually in place right now the trof is still over the NW/ ne pacific the weakness is not there. so until those start falling into place no one can say much except analyze the model outputs. notice where the gulf stream is now flying north of hispaniola and pr because right now the ridging there is whats steering the system. in a couple days the gulfstream will be sampling area over the western atlantic and gulf and so on. right now we just dont know past essentially 48 hours.

Very true but regardless the NHC will have to put something out for later tonight, if they have no confidence in the last batch of runs they may just extrapolate the 5:00 pm forcast for later tonight... I have no idea what they are going to forecast, I will just wait and see and we'll go from there..

[SunnyThoughts]

ok, so Texas mets are saying its very possible its coming that way, meanwhile here in Pensacola, at least one of our 3 local walmarts has completely sold out of bottled water already. We need this narrowed down as soon as possible to keep the entire gulf coast from becoming a mad house. HOpefully tonight and tomorrow with the info ingested from the gulfstream flights will do that.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HA's Model Predictions 0z
GFS: A touch west, LF on FL/AL border.
HWRF: Still across Florida, then back into gulf.
GFDL: A touch east
ECMWF: landfall in LA, touch east of 12z.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Expecting a rather large change in the track tonight. The trends aren't looking good for Louisiana.

HWRF definitely more west.. dang... NHC does not normally make large changes in track from run to run but I feel a west shift is in the making, not sure how much, but would not be surprised to see it around the MS/AL line at the minimum.. just my unprofessional SWAG at best... always follow the NHC for their forecasts because they are the best in the business...

well just like 2 days ago it was west then yesterday it was east now its back west. its a flag flapping in the wind. no need for anyone to make absolute statements nor can they. we will know more tonight and more in a couple days after the system gets near the islands and the players are actually in place right now the trof is still over the NW/ ne pacific the weakness is not there. so until those start falling into place no one can say much except analyze the model outputs. notice where the gulf stream is now flying north of hispaniola and pr because right now the ridging there is whats steering the system. in a couple days the gulfstream will be sampling area over the western atlantic and gulf and so on. right now we just dont know past essentially 48 hours.

So we still won't know if it's gonna go to SFL in the 00z runs?

[Senobia]

one thing they keep talking about is the high pressure building to the southeast and all the models are now starting to show this

What? That would put Isaac in reach of SETX. Is that what they mean?