ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Vis & ADT is definitely showing a flare right over LLC. I was expecting to see this just before sunset.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

However, rain rate is light.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

So, this may not be a hot-tower per se.

Rather, IMHO this may be the effects of a raising tropopause over Ernie.

The 200mb PV anomaly has dissipated in front of him and he is tracking into an anti-cyclone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8shrZ.GIF

Result is the vorticity column is expanding vertically.

Net effect may be wind speeds will now start to pick up.

[KWT]

I think we will be fine this time, given this one will be a land threat we should get a decent amount of recon out of Ernesto once all is said and done.

[Shuriken]

I am a complete amatuer. With that being said I have a question. How would a person KNOW that something is a hurricane without the NHC or any other ageny or models saying so? Is there a way to tell by looking at radar or bouye temps? I am so confused as to where this type of information was gotten from. I am not being coy but am truly curious.

1) if recon reports 65kts+, you can be reasonably assured it's a hurricane before the NHC's next statement.
2) If it has a clearly-defined eye on satellite, it's probably a hurricane. (The NHC on occasion makes upgrade based purely on satellite presentation -- and this is almost always the case with east-Atlantic storms for which no other data is readily available.)
3) ....?

Ernesto is a typical borderline storm with strong central bursting but no satellite-visible eye yet, so it's iffy to say it's one.

It's a hurricane if the NHC says so.

Storms wait for the updates?

[brunota2003]

Here are the numbers from the recon poll (Note that these numbers represent flight level winds, not surface winds):

Code: Select all

What will the max winds found during recon be?

Less than 45 knots        5%     5%     [ 2 ]
45 to 49 knots            2%     2%     [ 1 ]
50 to 54 knots            2%     2%     [ 1 ]
55 to 59 knots            25%     25%  [ 10 ]
60 to 64 knots            35%     35%  [ 14 ]
65 to 69 knots            20%     20%  [ 8 ]
70 knots or greater       7%     7%     [ 3 ]
Total votes : 39

[KWT]

Here is the issue. The placement of the GFS in 114 hours assumes Ernesto remains a shallow weaker system. If indeed Ernesto strengthens and is a hurricane in the NW Caribbean, it will move toward the weakness. Huge door open for a deep system. Intensity will dictate path.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

Yeah and I think if this ends up being the case there is a decent enough weakness there to probably take the system the whole way north into the GoM. Much is going to depend on strength. If Ernesto ever makes a run at a major then I think the more northerly option is very much on the table.

As it is the 18z GFS is WAY further north than the 12z GFS at 168hrs!

[KWT]

Whilst I didn't put my own views down, I'll go with something around 55-60kts being found at FL.

[Hurricaneman]

I think the 18zGFS may be the start of a north trend, lets see what the other models say

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042315
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120804
230500 1613N 06913W 8405 01621 0127 +171 +113 133039 039 034 001 00
230530 1613N 06915W 8430 01591 0123 +171 +117 134039 039 034 002 00
230600 1612N 06916W 8432 01590 0123 +170 +118 133039 040 034 002 00
230630 1611N 06917W 8430 01593 //// +168 +127 ////// 039 035 001 32
230700 1611N 06917W 8432 01593 //// +165 +131 ////// /// 035 001 32
230730 1611N 06917W 8426 01595 //// +166 +111 ////// /// 034 003 32
230800 1611N 06917W 8430 01595 //// +168 +102 ////// /// 036 000 32
230830 1611N 06917W 8428 01595 //// +165 +108 ////// /// 035 001 32
230900 1611N 06917W 8430 01593 //// +165 +118 ////// /// 034 002 32
230930 1611N 06917W 8428 01595 //// +164 +116 ////// /// 035 001 32
231000 1611N 06917W 8430 01595 //// +160 +130 ////// /// 035 002 32
231030 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231100 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231130 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231200 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231230 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231300 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231330 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231400 1611N 06917W 8432 01595 //// +158 +133 ////// /// 034 001 32
231430 1554N 06939W 8432 01580 0124 +157 +109 134041 041 033 003 03
$$
;

Operational Altitude...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I am a complete amatuer. With that being said I have a question. How would a person KNOW that something is a hurricane without the NHC or any other ageny or models saying so? Is there a way to tell by looking at radar or bouye temps? I am so confused as to where this type of information was gotten from. I am not being coy but am truly curious.

1) if recon reports 65kts+, you can be reasonably assured it's a hurricane before the NHC's next statement.
2) If it's a raging beast on satellite with a clearly defined stadium eye, it's probably a hurricane.
3) ....?

Ernesto is a typical borderline storm with strong central bursting but no satellite-visible eye yet, so it's iffy to say it's one.

Sorry for the confusion, recon is finding nice winds without being in the convection.

[bella_may]

Here is the issue. The placement of the GFS in 114 hours assumes Ernesto remains a shallow weaker system. If indeed Ernesto strengthens and is a hurricane in the NW Caribbean, it will move toward the weakness. Huge door open for a deep system. Intensity will dictate path.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

Yeah and I think if this ends up being the case there is a decent enough weakness there to probably take the system the whole way north into the GoM. Much is going to depend on strength. If Ernesto ever makes a run at a major then I think the more northerly option is very much on the table.

As it is the 18z GFS is WAY further north than the 12z GFS at 168hrs!

Do you have a link?

[KWT]

GFS still into Mexico...BUT this run is way to close for comfort for Texas, especially if it does turn out to be under-estimating Ernesto's strength in the earlier part of the run and Ernesto does get further north.

This is the first run I've seen for a while where the GFS delays the upper high from re-building:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

[Hurricane Andrew]

896.5 knots* (~ 1031.0 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane*

[brunota2003]

Whoops...I accidently fell asleep on the computer desk and shut down most of the system! It was such a boring flight annnnnnnnnnn zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Hopefully that is the only glitch!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah, NICE winds.
896.5 knots* (~ 1031.0 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane*

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
EDIT: This is NOT an accurate observation. Please don't take it as one.

[Stormlover2012]

how fast is that?

[KWT]

Ernesto is a typical borderline storm with strong central bursting but no satellite-visible eye yet, so it's iffy to say it's one.

I personally will be a little surprised if they find winds worthy of upgrading to hurricane status. I do think it has strengthened but I think tomorrow will be the day for stronger development once it starts to gain even more ocean fetch.

[brunota2003]

Super sonic (literally). In other words...those wind speeds are definitely NOT accurate.

[TwisterFanatic]

Yeah, NICE winds.
896.5 knots* (~ 1031.0 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane*

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

Beastmode

[Portastorm]

We have a thread for discussions on Ernesto recon, etc. Please move the recon comments to that thread and discuss away. Thank you.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113200

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042323
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 09 20120804
231500 1553N 06941W 8430 01583 0118 +166 +098 132041 041 /// /// 03
231530 1552N 06942W 8429 01584 0118 +169 +085 131041 041 /// /// 03
231600 1551N 06943W 8429 01584 0118 +168 +082 134041 041 /// /// 03
231630 1550N 06944W 8432 01582 0114 +175 +075 135040 040 032 001 00
231700 1548N 06945W 8429 01585 0116 +175 +074 136039 040 033 001 00
231730 1547N 06947W 8431 01583 0116 +171 +095 136037 039 033 001 00
231800 1546N 06948W 8426 01587 0116 +171 +079 135039 040 033 000 00
231830 1545N 06949W 8429 01583 0118 +167 +079 135041 041 033 001 00
231900 1544N 06950W 8431 01580 0118 +165 +112 135040 041 033 000 00
231930 1543N 06951W 8429 01582 0117 +165 +098 136040 040 032 001 00
232000 1542N 06953W 8430 01580 0116 +170 +084 136041 041 033 001 00
232030 1540N 06954W 8429 01583 0117 +168 +080 135042 043 032 002 00
232100 1539N 06955W 8429 01583 0116 +170 +047 138043 044 034 000 00
232130 1538N 06956W 8429 01582 0113 +174 +061 138043 044 035 000 00
232200 1537N 06957W 8429 01582 0112 +174 +079 136043 043 035 002 00
232230 1536N 06958W 8429 01580 0111 +174 +089 135042 043 037 002 00
232300 1535N 07000W 8429 01579 0109 +174 +094 135043 043 037 001 00
232330 1534N 07001W 8429 01579 0107 +175 +104 134042 043 037 002 00
232400 1532N 07002W 8430 01578 0107 +173 +115 135040 042 037 001 00
232430 1531N 07003W 8430 01577 0107 +170 +126 135039 040 039 001 00
$$
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