ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[boca]

Weagle on channel 5 said that we can breath easier we are out of the cone and it will keep on advancing west

[wxman76]

NHC is definitely taken the northern Vort as the storm center at 16.7 and 68.7. The convection there is moving wsw suggesting the center is farther south. What do others think?

[wxwatcher1999]

Weagle on channel 5 said that we can breath easier we are out of the cone and it will keep on advancing west

not to take his side but i have heard many mets and others say the same thing about the models will keep trending west

[margiek]

NHC is definitely taken the northern Vort as the storm center at 16.7 and 68.7. The convection there is moving wsw suggesting the center is farther south. What do others think?

Further south.

[Aric Dunn]

here is Melbourne Monday forecast... even this far up. it has a very large circ.

"Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with a east northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

[hurricanefloyd5]

Weagle on channel 5 said that we can breath easier we are out of the cone and it will keep on advancing west

that is wrong to say you are not out of the cone of error

[GeneratorPower]

Weagle on channel 5 said that we can breath easier we are out of the cone and it will keep on advancing west

The NHC forecast really is good news for the Florida east coast. Also looks like SW Florida is in for some squally weather but that should be about it, along with the waves and possible beach erosion.

[hurricanefloyd5]

here is Melbourne Monday forecast... even this far up. it has a very large circ.

"Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with a east northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

and that tells us what now

[Air Force Met]

There is no recon support for even a mesovort at 16.7N. Maybe 16.2 but definitely not 16.7. Whose idea was that???

I have NO idea. Pasch wrote the advisory. I think he needs to go home and get some rest.

There was a dropsonde @ 16.0N / 68.6W with 1003mb pressure and winds from 165° (from the SSE) @ 12 knots. That's almost due south of the fix and would have the winds blowing out of the low. For the low to be there the winds should at least be from 210-250. And I would expect the pressure to be a lot higher.

That dropsonde shows the LLC is somewhere off to the wnw...barely...near the v notch...and the MLC is still southeast...near 16.5/68

[Aric Dunn]

here is Melbourne Monday forecast... even this far up. it has a very large circ.

"Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with a east northeast wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%."

and that tells us what now

that with a tropical system this big the effects are wide spread and not to let your guard down.

[wxman76]

NHC is definitely taken the northern Vort as the storm center at 16.7 and 68.7. The convection there is moving wsw suggesting the center is farther south. What do others think?

Further south...did you see the last W-E pass by the NOAA flight?

Yeah i did. Ok so it's not just me thinking they are off again. Thanks

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

-NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN AS SUCH, JUST AN OPINION FROM AN AMATEUR WEATHER ENTHUSIAST-

If you watch the latest loops you can see the ML southern circulations convection and the northern LC convection merging in the middle like I said would happen. So, I agree with a couple of the above post about it consolidating further south then current center location by NHC.

[HeeBGBz]

Yikes. I'm dead center in the Cone of Doom. I'm glad my days off are Monday and Tuesday. I work on the beach in a restaurant in Biloxi and when Katrina was coming the owner stayed open until the Fire Department came into the place and told him he had to close it down. Of course, after the storm there was nothing left but pipes sticking out of the ground.

[Aric Dunn]

There is no recon support for even a mesovort at 16.7N. Maybe 16.2 but definitely not 16.7. Whose idea was that???

I have NO idea. Pasch wrote the advisory. I think he needs to go home and get some rest.

There was a dropsonde @ 16.0N / 68.6W with 1003mb pressure and winds from 165° (from the SSE) @ 12 knots. That's almost due south of the fix and would have the winds blowing out of the low. For the low to be there the winds should at least be from 210-250. And I would expect the pressure to be a lot higher.

That dropsonde shows the LLC is somewhere off to the wnw...barely...near the v notch...and the MLC is still southeast...near 16.5/68

I agree. been having a hard time with the data because the recon plane was changing altitude so much and with the mlc to the south the wind shifts were all over the place. maybe thats what he was talking about.

[summersquall]

A few black pixels on rainbow imagery - that's pretty rare in an Atlantic storm.

yeah there are very cold cloud tops. I am finding hard to believe with all the convergence and convection that we can get a solid inner core tonight. things are looking better as of now of satellite. just have to wait and see when recon gets there later tonight.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... nimir.html

Coldest cloud tops I've seen all day.

[Shuriken]

Red dot: NHC's 11PM init
Green dot: my estimation of the mid-level center.

[Senobia]

A few black pixels on rainbow imagery - that's pretty rare in an Atlantic storm.

yeah there are very cold cloud tops. I am finding hard to believe with all the convergence and convection that we can get a solid inner core tonight. things are looking better as of now of satellite. just have to wait and see when recon gets there later tonight.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... nimir.html

Coldest cloud tops I've seen all day.

Is there a thread for whatever that is in the GOM off the TX coast?

[stormgeek]

Local news here in Miami just stated they expect watches to go up tomorrow for the southeast coast of florida and the gfl is showing a strike on the southeast mainland through the state and out into the gulf.

[wxman76]

That green dot is exactly where i thought the center was too based on satellite.

[wxwatcher1999]

am i wrong for thinking isaac may miss hispaniola all together to the west?