ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

am i wrong for thinking isaac may miss hispaniola all together to the west?

Looks that way to me too, but whatta I know? It even looks as though it might hit Jamaica if it doesn't start more of a northward turn to me. I never trust myself looking at the sat's and movement though.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Granted the NAM is not a very good model to track, but it is generally good on synoptics. After looking at the new NAM run with the G-IV run in it, I am getting a wicked feeling about the east coast of Florida. I am expecting a shift back to the east on the runs, and the 5am NHC to shift east again also.

[Shuriken]

Tops approaching -90C just west of the mid-level center in the notch of the "yellow Lima bean":

[summersquall]

am i wrong for thinking isaac may miss hispaniola all together to the west?

I don't know whether you're wrong for thinking that but when I watch the longer loops, I don't see much of a northerly component to Isaac's motion and the more southern center pt. looks more probable. But, I am a rank amateur storm groupie.

[boca]

Local news here in Miami just stated they expect watches to go up tomorrow for the southeast coast of florida and the gfl is showing a strike on the southeast mainland through the state and out into the gulf.

50 miles north of you the west palm met says weere prety much in the clear.

[Aric Dunn]

latest loop. just exploding. both the mlc and vorts are now just about all encompassed under the cdo will its finally consolidate is the question.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[wxman76]

Again this question revolves around where you think the center is. If you take the NHC center then I think it clips SW Haiti, maybe. If you take the Green Dot center (just west of the yellow Lima bean) I think it misses too. I have to agree I can't see much of a poleward shift, and for the NAM to verify with the green dot center it has to turn to 315 degrees (NW) to make the channel. Just don't see it. Maybe 280 maybe.

[Blown Away]

am i wrong for thinking isaac may miss hispaniola all together to the west?

Heck, to me it looks like Isaac won't miss Dominican Republic.

This is not an official forecast and should not be used for any purpose except for entertainment.

[summersquall]

According to the "How close can it get?" tool on the Storm Carib website http://stormcarib.com/ ..
Results for 27.3N, 80.2W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 25.1N, 82.3W or about 203.5 miles (327.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 3 days, 1 hours and 41 minutes from now (Monday, August 27 at 1:18AM AST).

But, that's based on the current projected path so it's as good as the projected path is accurate.

[JPmia]

am i wrong for thinking isaac may miss hispaniola all together to the west?

Heck, to me it looks like Isaac won't miss Dominican Republic.

This is not an official forecast and should not be used for any purpose except for entertainment.[/quote]

Well if that is the case then he will some taller mountains to contend with and that is not good for those poor folks in Haiti

[Shuriken]

Whatever happened to the radars in the Dominican Republic and Haiti? (They used to work two years ago, give or take.)

[ozonepete]

latest loop. just exploding. both the mlc and vorts are now just about all encompassed under the cdo will its finally consolidate is the question.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Wow yeah, I see it. And if this keeps up, then I was wrong earlier. It will consolidate more to the south. Could miss most of the DR and Haiti.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JamesCaneTracker]

am i wrong for thinking isaac may miss hispaniola all together to the west?

Heck, to me it looks like Isaac won't miss Dominican Republic.

This is not an official forecast and should not be used for any purpose except for entertainment.

Rock, put that IR into motion... That's not the way that blob is moving... It's rotating around. In the latest loop it shows it moving south of west.

[Texashawk]

To me it still looks like:

a) the northern vort is being drawn into the southwest mass that is exploding with a super-cold CDO, which would bring the center yet again to a 15 degree lat and play havoc with the models
b) the entire structure is certainly not moving at a 290 motion - more like 270-275
c) Jamaica is definately in play for a strike

[cycloneye]

New Mircowave. There is the center.

[jlauderdal]

latest loop. just exploding. both the mlc and vorts are now just about all encompassed under the cdo will its finally consolidate is the question.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

consolidation just in time to run into land tomorrow and we get to do this all over again saturday

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Whatever happened to the radars in the Dominican Republic and Haiti? (They used to work two years ago, give or take.)

Might have something to do with that earthquake they had and not having the time to keep up with the radar? Just guessing here.

[Texashawk]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

First time in a looooooong time I've seen those colors on this imagery... especially with a low-end tropical storm!!!

[Blinhart]

Is it possible, that land interaction might actually help Isaac consolidate and really get his act together. Whether it is with the Dominican Republic, Cuba, or Jamaica. If I remember correctly some storms have gotten their shape better with a little land friction.

[stormgeek]

Local news here in Miami just stated they expect watches to go up tomorrow for the southeast coast of florida and the gfl is showing a strike on the southeast mainland through the state and out into the gulf.

50 miles north of you the west palm met says weere prety much in the clear.

Reading the model threads, some are indicating a shift to the east with the air force data included. Should be an interesting 5 am advisory!