ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blinhart]

nah your right rock, I mean its just the way the upper level pattern is, he doesnt matter if this thing gets strong the pattern is shaping up to be a strong high pressure in the southeast

Can you prove any of this? At all?

twc J.C. said the jet stream it trees going to split in two lit teaching an ull western gulf jet stream redevelop to the ne creating a high in the western Atlantic with the western periphery in Florida peninsula.

Can someone decipher what was just said.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Gustav/Ike?

[HurricaneBrain]

Gustav/Ike?

Similarities...

[storm4u]

starts at 1130

What time does the 0Z GFS come out.

[Kingarabian]

nah your right rock, I mean its just the way the upper level pattern is, he doesnt matter if this thing gets strong the pattern is shaping up to be a strong high pressure in the southeast

twc J.C. said the jet stream it trees going to split in two lit teaching an ull western gulf jet stream redevelop to the ne creating a high in the western Atlantic with the western periphery in Florida peninsula.

Can someone decipher what was just said.

My computer crashed after attempting to decipher what was just said.

[pledger28]

I have watched this site for years. A little nervous to click the link and join I finally found the courage to click the link!!! I started my journey on this site very excited to learn from a great group of people. Not only did I see helpfullness but an amazing amount of intelligence. Today, I have been disappointed. In the last few hours I have seen a few unnamed people snapping at others anytime they offer their opinion on storm track. I guess we need to all agree that this is going to Lousianna and just call it a night.

[Blinhart]

Gustav/Ike?

I don't like hearing those two names.

[Aric Dunn]

So if you all did not notice take a look at the better resolution of the hwrf. notice that the center does half circle before moving over hati. well the hwrf all it did was latch onto a vort no the center. go ahead an throw that out for the time being. it also caused isaac to arrive at the weakness later which allowed for it to fill in more. problem is the whole mass of the storm is moving at a steady pace so latching on to a wobbling vort spinning is going to give a bad run. so all you texas people with the excitement and or fear of the models shifting west or the east coast people the same... dont let the models get to you. anything past 48 hours right now is just pure speculation. the land interaction cannot be discounted. it quite easily could reform a center on the north side of cuba or hispaniola thus changing everything.

[Jevo]

I have watched this site for years. A little nervous to click the link and join I finally found the courage to click the link!!! I started my journey on this site very excited to learn from a great group of people. Not only did I see helpfullness but an amazing amount of intelligence. Today, I have been disappointed. In the last few hours I have seen a few unnamed people snapping at others anytime they offer their opinion on storm track. I guess we need to all agree that this is going to Lousianna and just call it a night.

Welcome to the site.

While I respect your opinion i do reserve the right to disagree with you based on facts and data.. Bottom line is that it's to early to call a 2nd landfall. Also I know I'm not a mod but I've been around long enough to know that you need to put a disclaimer after any type of prediction

EDIT: My apologies if I missed the irony in your post... I wasn't expecting it

[Cyclenall]

Thanks for the idea Christina

Well Folks.. here it is.. the 0z showdown tonight with the G-IV data

This is absolutely hilarious, great work!

Not surprised at all by the 18z GFS run, much more west in the late ranges which is showing the Gulf coast well in play moreso than before. Its that beginning and medium range thing.

[Stormlover2012]

its not going to matter where the center forms if the high pressure in the south east forms like the gfs and euro are now showing, thats just plain and simple, this storm is weak weak weak rightnow but high pressure is going to build in the southeast

[SouthFLTropics]

So if you all did not notice take a look at the better resolution of the hwrf. notice that the center does half circle before moving over hati. well the hwrf all it did was latch onto a vort no the center. go ahead an throw that out for the time being. it also caused isaac to arrive at the weakness later which allowed for it to fill in more. problem is the whole mass of the storm is moving at a steady pace so latching on to a wobbling vort spinning is going to give a bad run. so all you texas people with the excitement and or fear of the models shifting west or the east coast people the same... dont let the models get to you. anything past 48 hours right now is just pure speculation. the land interaction cannot be discounted. it quite easily could reform a center on the north side of cuba or hispaniola thus changing everything.

I'm very glad to see you say this Aric ...I have been saying this all day long. In my history of tracking storms I have seen the islands many times cause a center reformation. If that were to happen and convection build on the north side of Hispaniola with a new dominant center then we have a whole new ballgame. If that happens you can essentially throw out all the models that have been run so far and start all over with new model runs and a new best track. The islands are the X factor here and until we see how Isaac interacts with them tomorrow and into Saturday then anything is fair game.

SFT

[Stormlover2012]

I mean don't yall get it, if high pressure builds in the southeast there is only one way it goes thats west or wnw

[SouthFLTropics]

its not going to matter where the center forms if the high pressure in the south east forms like the gfs and euro are now showing, thats just plain and simple, this storm is weak weak weak rightnow but high pressure is going to build in the southeast

I would have to respectfully disagree with you on that...It may not matter in the longer term but in regards to impacts to SE Florida it could very well matter.

SFT

[robbielyn]

Can you prove any of this? At all?[/quote]
twc J.C. said the jet stream is going to split in two allowing
an ull in the western gulf. The jet stream will redevelop to the ne creating a high in the western Atlantic with the western periphery in Florida peninsula.[/quote]
Can someone decipher what was said?
So sorry I need to proofread lol

[KBBOCA]

I understood Pledger28's words " I guess we need to all agree that this is going to Louisiana and just call it a night." as being sarcasm, not a prediction - i.e. that some here who are calling for a further west landfall are being intolerant of those who are not yet convinced.

Anyhow, welcome pledger28. Things can get tense when there's a potentially major storm, and there can be craziness. But it's still a GREAT site and so many have helped me learn a lot over the years.

[Stormlover2012]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

[JPmia]

boy the GFS ensembles sure are tightening up.. except for that one outlier to the west:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Stormlover2012]

also remember the gfs is slowly catching on to the high pressure building to the southeast, look for them to move west again

[Christiana]

Jevo = Brilliant, Bravo!

Interesting obs on center reformations, I confess however that I am -removed- a big huge loud POOF. Bones w/b my new bff.

Anxious to see the outcome of the recon data on the model runs.