ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

A question for a mod,
In the rules, it says we can't use to alter official NHC maps...is it ok to post a satellite image, with an analysis? I can PM an example if needed.

[FutureEM]

Any evidence that the ridge the EMCWF was forecasting is building in?

[cycloneye]

The next mission will be this evening with plane departing at 6:45 PM EDT or 5:45 PM CDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 24/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HeeBGBz]

We have tropical storm warnings 60 miles east and west of us but nothing for the MS coast? What are they waiting for? Christmas??

[jinftl]

That some mean convection just offshore tampa

[jabman98]

With what appears to be an eastern shift, it looks like we might not get much rain here in Texas. I'm so disappointed, if that turns out to be the case. We still need rain and Debby looked like she might provide it. I know, I know, we're still in the cone here in Houston. Not letting my guard down, but it's looking a lot less likely.

[mutley]

I know we like to geek out on tracks, predictions and crow... but can we all just give one HOLY CRAP for NHC for Debby? I for one would hate to be in that forecaster chair today. =)

No kidding. Anxiety will be the mood of the day. Wouldn't want their job for anything.

[Portastorm]

A question for a mod,
In the rules, it says we can't use to alter official NHC maps...is it ok to post a satellite image, with an analysis? I can PM an example if needed.

Yes it is ok as long as you include the forecast disclaimer.

[psyclone]

I am probably getting wind gusts in the neighborhood of 40 to 45 mph right now. not sustained but frequent gusts. and buckets of rain. darn close to a low end ts...ooh and now a SVR since we have no TS warning. we're getting some of the most fund Debby has to offer at the moment.

[jinftl]

Possibly the NHC is anticipating further east adjustments and with all the weather on the east side, there won't be a need for warnings in New Orleans and Biloxi...that is the only thing i can think. Kinda surprised by that too...but the only new watches were fl west coast north of tampa, so that does say something about NHC thinking

We have tropical storm warnings 60 miles east and west of us but nothing for the MS coast? What are they waiting for? Christmas??

[KWT]

Well that coastal rider I was talking about yesterday is now the NHC solution, the track is like a weaker Elena.

This has been a horrible one for the NHC to call, the ECM has burnt them because they went with them rather than the GFS (not saying that was wrong fwiw, because thats a horrible call to have to make)

[tolakram]

I know recon was just there ... but having a hard time seeing an organized storm.

[Kingarabian]

Okay I think the GFS is rolling:

[northjaxpro]

Dean, given that the center is already within 100-150 miles of the FL panhandle/Big Bend coast, and the forward NE motion of 6 mph has been discerned by Recon, I am inclined more and to believe that the GFS will come through the best with its solution it has held steadfast to for the past several days. At 6 mph, it is not moving at a crawl at the moment and it is only getting closer and closer to the coast with time. It is appearing in my view that there may be just enough of a weakness there from the East Coast trough to grab Debby during the next 36 hours or so. I agree with you that a more eastward shift will come with the track as time progresses.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 0Z GFS did have Debbie moving west for a bit (nearly stalled), then back east. Only the Canadian has a steady NE track at the moment.

Step through both the 0z and 6Z GFS, and also the 0z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Yes. I was referring to the overall NE trend GFS has constantly held to all along the past sevral days. CMC is on board now with the overall NE trend yes. Debby is closing in on the coastline and again, at least at the moment, 6 mph is not moving at a crawl.

[Kingarabian]

Closer to the panhandle +6 hours.

[Frank P]

Not sure why the MS coast is not in any warnings? Or did I miss that somewhere?

We do have. You can monitor local weather here.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 88.885&e=0

Yeah, I saw that, I should have stated why no "Tropical Storm Warnings..." in MS... Maybe they are just wanting to see if the FL solution comes to fruition before they add us in the TS warnings.. I have no idea.. thanks

Meaning that if it doesn't track to the west, and goes NE, then we would be in the clear on the MS coast..

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241526
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 33 20120624
150000 2911N 08742W 8121 01865 //// +140 //// 038052 052 028 002 01
150030 2909N 08742W 8124 01859 //// +136 //// 041052 052 030 003 01
150100 2907N 08741W 8115 01869 //// +138 //// 038052 053 034 002 01
150130 2905N 08741W 8125 01857 //// +130 //// 034051 053 034 002 01
150200 2903N 08741W 8116 01865 //// +125 //// 035051 052 034 001 01
150230 2901N 08741W 8116 01863 //// +124 //// 035051 053 036 001 01
150300 2859N 08741W 8119 01859 //// +125 //// 039051 053 036 001 01
150330 2857N 08741W 8123 01852 //// +125 //// 039050 053 036 002 01
150400 2855N 08741W 8114 01858 //// +126 //// 038050 052 037 004 01
150430 2853N 08741W 8114 01859 //// +121 //// 031050 052 038 004 01
150500 2851N 08741W 8127 01847 //// +126 //// 039052 054 037 003 01
150530 2849N 08740W 8105 01870 //// +119 //// 035050 053 038 004 01
150600 2847N 08740W 8117 01847 //// +126 //// 034051 053 037 004 01
150630 2845N 08740W 8110 01854 //// +127 //// 036051 055 038 003 01
150700 2843N 08740W 8117 01841 //// +129 //// 035055 057 038 003 01
150730 2841N 08741W 8120 01840 //// +128 //// 033050 057 039 003 01
150800 2839N 08742W 8120 01840 //// +128 //// 035052 055 040 002 01
150830 2837N 08742W 8115 01848 //// +129 //// 036051 052 041 004 01
150900 2835N 08743W 8123 01838 //// +133 //// 032049 050 039 002 01
150930 2833N 08743W 8112 01848 //// +135 //// 029050 052 040 002 01
$$

[TheBurn]

WV_Enhanced

[Kingarabian]

Closer to making landfall +12

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1127 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CAPE
ROMANO...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK...
BELLE MEADE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.