ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

It will be interesting to see if the center tightens up near the deepest bursting convection. Like others have said it is truly impressive and shows me that Isaac should be taken seriously.

[LaBreeze]

PTrackerLA, what's your take on this system for us?

[LowndesCoFire]

Just read forecast wording for my local area (South Central GA). Tuesday forecast now reads "tropical storm conditions possible" (updated 11:35pm).

[Shuriken]

Big dots: NHC surface fix (red); my estimate of mid-level center (green)
Small red dots to right of big dot: NHC 3hr fixes.
Small green dots to right of big dot: my estimation of mid-level center track.
Small red dots on left: NHC forecast path (11pm).
Small green dots on left: my prediction of mid-level center progress based on continuity.

Blue dots: "S-curve Stack-up" (represents mid-level center winning the battle and the surface low being sucked sucked under it; could happen earlier or later than represented).

[ozonepete]

New Mircowave. There is the center.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/A ... W.65pc.jpg

Wow. Pretty ominous. If this gets it act together at a more southerly latitude, which is looking increasingly likely, it could slip south of Haiti and go into RI pretty easily.

[floridasun78]

you all think wind could go up to 50mph by 2am?

[ROCK]

southern vort IMO is the one....nothing at 16.5.....



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[Blinhart]

you all think wind could go up to 50mph by 2am?

If this impressive blowup continues, maybe even a little higher like 60 mph.

[ROCK]

New Mircowave. There is the center.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/A ... W.65pc.jpg

Wow. Pretty ominous. If this gets it act together at a more southerly latitude, which is looking increasingly likely, it could slip south of Haiti and go into RI pretty easily.

not until it stacks....the MLC still displaced IMO....

[wxwatcher1999]

are these recent models initializing from the northern or southern vorticy?

[Blinhart]

southern vort IMO is the one....nothing at 16.5.....



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From looking at that I would say about 15.8N and 68.5W, is that what you see??

[fci]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

That is very irresponsible for them to say that...Which channel was that and who was the Met? And please don't disappoint me and say it was Kait Parker...I just can't find a way for her to disappoint me...

SFT

Weagle Right now he's on our local Fox news at 10.

I didn't see the newscast but he is also Met for NBC-5.(they cover the 10:00 for Fox too)
I watched his video on line and he did NOT say he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba.
He listed 3 scenarios:
1) High weakens and Isaac goes up center of the state
2) High is strong and Isaac tracks in Eastern Gulf towards FL/AL border
3) Isaac doesn't survive crossing Eastern Cuba mountains.
He leaned towards solution 2.

Of the local mets I have always found Weagle to be the best of the 3 and wonder if maybe the comment that was heard on Fox was out of context?

[fci]

Another goody from Weagle - Martin County is out of the cone and part of PBC. The rest of PBC will be out by the morning.

Seems pretty sure of himself

I think he is right.
By 11:00 AM based on current trends and the science of the error cone; with The Treasure Coast and Northern Palm Beach County already out of the cone, it stands to reason that unless the track shifts east; most of Palm Beach County WILL be out of the error cone.

[Air Force Met]

not until it stacks....the MLC still displaced IMO....

Agreed. From that image you can see the LLC is a little displaced to the N of the MLC...by about 30-60 miles. However, you can also see the LLC is elongated N-S...so it is pretty conceivable that the N LLC will rotate around and a new LLC will finally get going under the MLC. By the time recon gets in there they could find pressures in the 990's. It certainly looks better organizationally than it did on the other 37 ghz passes earlier.

[Meteorcane]

Air Force would you give this system higher odds of becoming a hurricane at some point in its lifetime, or being shredded by Cuba/Hispanola?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

AFM, good to see you lurking around again. If a true center does end up forming say 60-70 miles further south, will that have any implications on where it could go in gulf or not really?

[Air Force Met]

Air Force would you give this system higher odds of becoming a hurricane at some point in its lifetime, or being shredded by Cuba/Hispanola?

I feel really sure it will be a hurricane at some point.

Off to bed. Taking the kids fishing early in the morning before the weekend madness ensues.

[meriland23]

So what new is going on with isaac? Is it going more south now? am I reading that right? thought this was supposed to go wnw right meow through hisp?

[WeatherOrKnot]

That is very irresponsible for them to say that...Which channel was that and who was the Met? And please don't disappoint me and say it was Kait Parker...I just can't find a way for her to disappoint me...

SFT[/quote]


Weagle Right now he's on our local Fox news at 10.[/quote]

I didn't see the newscast but he is also Met for NBC-5.(they cover the 10:00 for Fox too)
I watched his video on line and he did NOT say he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba.
He listed 3 scenarios:
1) High weakens and Isaac goes up center of the state
2) High is strong and Isaac tracks in Eastern Gulf towards FL/AL border
3) Isaac doesn't survive crossing Eastern Cuba mountains.
He leaned towards solution 2.


During Fox broadcast he said not once, not twice but 3 times he thought 3 was the most likely scenario. Not sure what changed for him between 10pm broadcast and 11pm, but I know what he said at 10.

Of the local mets I have always found Weagle to be the best of the 3 and wonder if maybe the comment that was heard on Fox was out of context?[/quote]

[tolakram]

Isaac likes to look good at night. On IR it appears to be organizing with a center more south than currently located, but until recon goes out in an hour or so we won't really know if anything has improved.