ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

Local news here in Miami just stated they expect watches to go up tomorrow for the southeast coast of florida and the gfl is showing a strike on the southeast mainland through the state and out into the gulf.

50 miles north of you the west palm met says weere prety much in the clear.

It will all be a moot point tomorrow; but going with the model trend and track trend, which way would you go; watches for SE Florida or out of the cone?
I'm also not sure what GFS run is he looking at, today's or one from a few days ago?
I'll side with Weagle and the WPB Met on this one.
Serve up the crow to the loser......

[Sean in New Orleans]

southern vort IMO is the one....nothing at 16.5.....



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Eeeh...doesn't looked very organized to me...and you know it isn't if we can't even guess where the center of circulation is located...stay tuned...it will get its' act together soon enough. If we're lucky, it'll go over Pico Turquino in Western Cuba...that should demolish it pretty good.

[ROCK]

So what new is going on with isaac? Is it going more south now? am I reading that right? thought this was supposed to go wnw right meow through hisp?

same competing centers but the microwave pass looks like the southern vort is taking hold....which would make a slight difference down the line....unless of course the mountains dont shred it....

[Blinhart]

I'm sorry I don't see a circulation anywhere near where the NHC had the center at, from looking at the Satellite it looks like the center could be a good 100 or so miles SSE of where they say it is.

[fci]

That is very irresponsible for them to say that...Which channel was that and who was the Met? And please don't disappoint me and say it was Kait Parker...I just can't find a way for her to disappoint me...

SFT

Weagle Right now he's on our local Fox news at 10.[/quote]

I didn't see the newscast but he is also Met for NBC-5.(they cover the 10:00 for Fox too)
I watched his video on line and he did NOT say he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba.
He listed 3 scenarios:
1) High weakens and Isaac goes up center of the state
2) High is strong and Isaac tracks in Eastern Gulf towards FL/AL border
3) Isaac doesn't survive crossing Eastern Cuba mountains.
He leaned towards solution 2.


During Fox broadcast he said not once, not twice but 3 times he thought 3 was the most likely scenario. Not sure what changed for him between 10pm broadcast and 11pm, but I know what he said at 10.

Of the local mets I have always found Weagle to be the best of the 3 and wonder if maybe the comment that was heard on Fox was out of context?[/quote][/quote]

I got you.
I did not see the Fox broadcast and you did so I can just say that I am glad that he clarified it better (or corrected himself) on the video.

[fasterdisaster]

It does seem like it's only a matter of time until Isaac's position is adjusted southward towards the MLC.

[meriland23]

So what new is going on with isaac? Is it going more south now? am I reading that right? thought this was supposed to go wnw right meow through hisp?

same competing centers but the microwave pass looks like the southern vort is taking hold....which would make a slight difference down the line....unless of course the mountains dont shred it....

mkay, so is NHC track based on the northern vort taking hold vs the southern?

[NDG]

southern vort IMO is the one....nothing at 16.5.....

http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2347/201208240056f18xcolor37.jpg

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Eeeh...doesn't looked very organized to me...and you know it isn't if we can't even guess where the center of circulation is located...stay tuned...it will get its' act together soon enough. If we're lucky, it'll go over Pico Turquino in Western Cuba...that should demolish it pretty good.

The microwave image pass was done shortly before 9 PM, at that time they had a NOAA recon investigating the system, I am sure they would had investigated the mid level vorticity to see if it had a surface reflection. You guys have to come to reality, the surface circulation is further north, the system is not stacked up yet.

[margiek]

NHC is definitely taken the northern Vort as the storm center at 16.7 and 68.7. The convection there is moving wsw suggesting the center is farther south. What do others think?

Further south...did you see the last W-E pass by the NOAA flight?

Yeah i did. Ok so it's not just me thinking they are off again. Thanks

Well...I have to take that back. I wasn't paying enough attention to the data. Sorry about that.

[thetruesms]

I feel really sure it will be a hurricane at some point.

Off to bed. Taking the kids fishing early in the morning before the weekend madness ensues.

I need to make myself do this. So much for my plan to get to bed sooner, and try to hit a halfway point tomorrow morning before my day starts three hours before usual this weekend

[SunnyThoughts]

I feel really sure it will be a hurricane at some point.

Off to bed. Taking the kids fishing early in the morning before the weekend madness ensues.

I need to make myself do this. So much for my plan to get to bed sooner, and try to hit a halfway point tomorrow morning before my day starts three hours before usual this weekend

Get some well needed rest, we are all going to be very busy this weekend in the panhandle...You more than most I"m sure.

[meriland23]

thing that is scary about this specific storm is the fact that it is so large, surely more time has to elapse to intensify.. but it will get plenty of that in the gulf when it just kind of swims there for a good while based on the lack of steering currents.. and other things. IF this becomes a major, it will be devestating for whoever it hits because it is so large.. and so slow

[JamesCaneTracker]

southern vort IMO is the one....nothing at 16.5.....

http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2347/201208240056f18xcolor37.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Eeeh...doesn't looked very organized to me...and you know it isn't if we can't even guess where the center of circulation is located...stay tuned...it will get its' act together soon enough. If we're lucky, it'll go over Pico Turquino in Western Cuba...that should demolish it pretty good.

The microwave image pass was done shortly before 9 PM, at that time they had a NOAA recon investigating the system, I am sure they would had investigated the mid level vorticity to see if it had a surface reflection. You guys have to come to reality, the surface circulation is further north, the system is not stacked up yet.

I'm sorry but I don't see ANY organized Deep convection at the location where the NHC is saying the Center is... All the deepest convection is further south! You can't argue with the convection... If there is no Low Level Circulation currently in the southern area there will be soon enough with that much deep convection. JMO!

[jordansfl]

Hey everyone. I'm in south florida near fort lauderdale. Just wanted to hear a few opinions on what I can expect from this storm and what you guys think about the current track. Thanks

Jordan

[NDG]

Eeeh...doesn't looked very organized to me...and you know it isn't if we can't even guess where the center of circulation is located...stay tuned...it will get its' act together soon enough. If we're lucky, it'll go over Pico Turquino in Western Cuba...that should demolish it pretty good.

The microwave image pass was done shortly before 9 PM, at that time they had a NOAA recon investigating the system, I am sure they would had investigated the mid level vorticity to see if it had a surface reflection. You guys have to come to reality, the surface circulation is further north, the system is not stacked up yet.

I'm sorry but I don't see ANY organized Deep convection at the location where the NHC is saying the Center is... All the deepest convection is further south! You can't argue with the convection... If there is no Low Level Circulation currently in the southern area there will be soon enough with that much deep convection. JMO!

The interesting part now that I look at the 0z GFS in detail is that it was started with the surface low further south underneath the mid level vorticity and it did not make that much if any of a difference, we are talking about that the surface COC is still broad covering a large area so at the end it does not really make that much of a diffence if it was a tight small circulation.
A new recon AF plane just left St Croix, so hopefully it will give us a better idea where it is.

[SapphireSea]

I think whatever is going to consolidate is probably around 16.0-16.2N and 69.0-69.2W. Seems to be heading 280. This puts it a bit south of the forecast points. And about proper with the resolution area the models think this storm is at.

[windnrain]

Hey guys... what are the chances of this thing affecting us here in Baton Rouge?

[wxwatcher1999]

I guess I am looking at it wrong but to me it looks like it is moving west

[Shuriken]

Hmm... no updated 2am Public Advisory (it's a half-hour late, so I'm guessing they're skipping any updated position fixes until the 5am)..

- - - -

My updated estimate of mid-level center position:

[SouthDadeFish]

Shuriken its not 2 yet.... And it looks pretty good on satellite imagery now. I should this image to focus on convective structure rather than cloud top temps: