ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

The next mission will be this evening with plane departing at 6:45 PM EDT or 5:45 PM CDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 24/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[vaffie]

It's funny that after 36 hours of strengthening, the GFS still does not show a pressure that it's already initialized at right now. It's at 994 mb right now, but GFS initializes it at 998 and drops it to 995 by late tomorrow.

[pgoss11]

I know there is some disappointment at the prospect of this missing Texas and them not receiving the much needed rain. But if this does continue northeast, at least Georgia will get some rain out of it... parts of GA are pretty drought-ridden so far this year (not as bad as TX, though).

Was just thinking that Georgia/SC might get some much needed rain, but I was wondering depending on the track if there would be the danger of tornadoes if Debbie doesn't go back out into the Atantic per the GFS. A lot of questions still...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1016 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA
COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING
THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UPPER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL
SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT
FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5N...LONGITUDE 87.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF DESTIN
FL. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
BANDS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND TROPICAL STORM WINDS WITH SEAS UP
TO 13 FEET FOR THE MARINE WATERS.

HIGHWAY 399 BETWEEN PENSACOLA BEACH AND NAVARRE IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. WATER HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED ON THE ROADWAY AT JOHNSON BEACH
NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE
TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 1 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-251530-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1016 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 52 PERCENT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WATERS TO RESULT IN INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS.

THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF IMPACT WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. REMEMBER
SURGE WATERS OFTEN ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE CORE WINDS.

LARGE WAVES AND POUNDING SURF WILL ACCENTUATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IN
EXPOSED LOCATIONS. FLOOD WATERS MAY EXTEND INLAND IN SOME SPOTS.
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR. MANY ROADS COULD BE DAMAGED OR
INUNDATED BY THE FLOOD WATERS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. INCREASED SURF AND TIDES
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE.

[Portastorm]

The low level cloud product clears up the center issue a bit.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

Very big, and is it re-organizing to the west now?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Awesome image! And yes, it would appear a center is reorganizing to the west.

[wxman57]

I know we like to geek out on tracks, predictions and crow... but can we all just give one HOLY CRAP for NHC for Debby? I for one would hate to be in that forecaster chair today. =)

I'm in that forecast chair, and I'm hoping I awaken from this nightmare any minute...

[jinftl]

Makes sense...between 5am and 11am tracks, this is the one of the bigger shifts I have seen the NHC make between advisories and they have all but said are more are coming. Actually they said they need to be ready to make more.

Sure don't like the 11am forecast track one bit....sill have a few day to worry though as Debby don't seem to be in any hurry. I wonder if the NHC has forgotten the Mississippi Coast exists as there are no watchs or warnings and Debby is forecast to pass not too far south of me.....MGC

You should be fine. NHC doesn't like to make HUGE track shifts all at once. They'll likely adjust the track to the FL Panhandle this afternoon and maybe even east of Apalachicola this evening. You won't get much of anything in Pass Christian. Debby is just too far NE now to take a west track into the ridge toward New Orleans.

[lebron23]

It's funny that after 36 hours of strengthening, the GFS still does not show a pressure that it's already initialized at right now. It's at 994 mb right now, but GFS initializes it at 998 and drops it to 995 by late tomorrow.

Same thing I was thinking...

[Jevo]

A roundup of the 6z Operational Models.

HWRF sticking to its guns... ALbeit more towards Galveston

[Annie Oakley]

And thanks to Tropicalatlantic.com for their recon archive-I had to use it once today lol.

(hope it's okay to say that.)

[wxman57]

Awesome image! And yes, it would appear a center is reorganizing to the west.

I don't see that in the image, Portastorm. I see a steady NNE movement toward Apalachicola. Not even any squalls near the center now. The nearest squalls are located 100 miles to the north and northeast of the low-level swirl.

[TampaCE]

Albert Whitted Airport in St Pete is reporting sustained winds of 37 MPH with wind gusts of 51 according to Bay News 9 graphics.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone moving pretty quickly to the LLC

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jabman98]

I know there is some disappointment at the prospect of this missing Texas and them not receiving the much needed rain. But if this does continue northeast, at least Georgia will get some rain out of it... parts of GA are pretty drought-ridden so far this year (not as bad as TX, though).

I'm glad for anyone getting rain who needs it. So if GA drought areas get some, then it's not wasted. I hate for folks who have had quite enough rain to have Debby sitting and dumping on them for days. Especially when we here in Texas would gladly welcome her for a visit, so long as she behaved.

[Kingarabian]

Summary for the 12z GFS run: GFS remains persistent with its solution.

Anyway the slower Debby takes to wrap up the more the GFS solution is likely IMO and Florida threat.

Faster it wraps up the more the threat to NOLA.

[jlauderdal]

They were probably a few hours late on this but never to late to make a good decision...3 torn warnings going right now in the southern half.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 422 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE
LEE LEVY MANATEE
MARTIN PALM BEACH PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...

[artist]

They were probably a few hours late on this but never to late to make a good decision...3 torn warnings going right now in the southern half.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 422 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE
LEE LEVY MANATEE
MARTIN PALM BEACH PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...

Palm Beach not incuded yet we have already had 2 warnings.

[rockyman]

West end of Dauphin Island is flooding. Rental companies evacuating tourists this morning. More updates later...

[artist]

TORMFL
FLC043-241615-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0018.120624T1540Z-120624T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1140 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PALMDALE...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1136 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PALMDALE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PALMDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[mutley]

The low level cloud product clears up the center issue a bit.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

Very big, and is it re-organizing to the west now?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Awesome image! And yes, it would appear a center is reorganizing to the west.

Hmmm...people saying it looks like it's reorganizing to the west...and on that loop, it looks to me like it's reorganizing in the NE part of what was an elongated circulation. Must be me.