ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Hmm... no updated 2am Public Advisory (it's a half-hour late, so I'm guessing they're skipping any updated position fixes until the 5am)..

- - - -

My updated estimate of mid-level center position:

Its only 1:40am...

[Aric Dunn]

recon about to do first pass through the northern vort/center.

[timmeister]

Hey guys... what are the chances of this thing affecting us here in Baton Rouge?

Baton Rouge is in the "Cone", so right now the chances of it affecting Baton Rouge are the same as it affecting Tallahassee, FL or Mobile, AL.
It would be a good idea to keep tabs on the storm at the National Hurricane Centers web site here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Here is the latest projected path including the "Cone of Uncertainty"

[shortwave]

just from looking at this.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
being devoid of convection can see the wave envelope extends all the way to 25N. One big atmospheric buckle. hope it stays dry.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormhunter7]

i wonder if were about to see a sign of Isaac slowing and a sign of pressure dropping.. with one center becoming apparent. about to find out!

[Aric Dunn]

so far the winds are looking good. out of the right direction...

[Blinhart]

According to the Disco, the center is at the very top of the blob. Question to everyone who thinks they are just waiting on the RECON before they move the center further south?

[DoctorBoudreaux]

At this stage a few degrees deviation either way in the track will make a large impact on the area of final landfall days from now. Those few degrees will also affect the track over Cuba and/or the Keys and any potential weakening in the storm caused by interaction, or lack thereof, with land masses. I think it would be wise for all of those in the cone (and areas west of the cone) to be on their toes for the next 48 hours. This thing has a track that could impact areas previously devastated by that now retired "K" storm. Once the storm gets north of Cuba, it will probably strengthen in the bathwater warm Gulf. Even a Cat 2 (remember Ike?) can cause tremendous loss of life and property.

[mrbagyo]

wow!!! euro is showing this to hit louisiana... and it will be a loop current crosser... just like Rita back in 2005
by the way 2 storms are also active in wpac, and the larger system already pop a small eye...

[Hammy]

based on latest recon, they're well away from the max vorticy and winds are already dropping... looks like a repeat of the last few nights with the large multi-swirl center

[Aric Dunn]

So far the wind field is exactly how it should be.

[Texashawk]

According to the Disco, the center is at the very top of the blob. Question to everyone who thinks they are just waiting on the RECON before they move the center further south?

Something has to give - assuming the NHC is right and that's the real center, and their predicted track holds, either center reformation will occur further south or the center will track away from the deep convection, leaving it exposed. My money's on the former.

[stormhunter7]

agree aric... this is looking like we may have a storm coming together slowly now.. that deep convection and maybe is slowed some at surface. Recon is in center now... waiting for data to come back

[Aric Dunn]

finally looks like the north vort is gone and the center barely to its south has taken over. not much to the south at all. so wont make a difference in the models.

[Aric Dunn]

recon appears to be finding the center farther west and slightly south previously thought.

[timmeister]

Isaac is poorly organized right now and has multiple vortex's.

[wxwatcher1999]

Now if the center is farther west I bet that will make some kind of difference on the models

[stormhunter7]

not sure about recon data.. first area they went too.. not the center. maybe a vort to SE of main center?

[Shuriken]

recon appears to be finding the center farther west and slightly south previously thought.

Ergo, southwest movement.

-- The massive burst just to the west of the mid-level center is sucking the low-level circ under the updrafts.

[Texashawk]

Isaac is poorly organized right now and has multiple vortex's.

That was taken hours ago. Recon is no longer finding that northern vortex, looks closer to the center of convection. It was certainly a mess, though, and it still may be quite disorganized. We'll soon find out!