deltadog03 wrote:I know its the NAM BUT that is a pretty big weakness......
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very interesting.....
ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
very interesting.....
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wxman76
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Look at the 48 hr 00z NAM it actually has the main low north of Cuba and a second weak low south of it. Then it does a fujiwara effect sending Isaac west towards the keys then North again. Strange but a definite shift to the west. I believe this is the first run to show it on the west coast. Not that I believe that track but trying to get some insights into what the big boys are gonna do tonight.
Last edited by wxman76 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
In the beginning, the giants of weather started posting on the internet. Dericho, John and Mike C, frank pelligrini, cycloneye, hank frank, Jason Kelly, Lois Cane, and yours truly. Well me, I don't even own a computer any more and so be it. I haven't even logged into an account since like 2009. But like Superman, when you need his ass, he might be around. So here is the deal. Models have swayed from out to sea, to Miami/SC-NC, to the West Coast of Florida to the panhandle and now, possibly points farther west. I still think it is way too early to pinpoint any landfall assuming Isaac can get and keep his act together. We don't know, and we won't know for about 4 days what's really going to happen. So even though this is the model thread, there is one place you can go to see what will happen in the 6-10 day range. That is the joint typhoon warning center. Go look at the forecast graphics for Tembin and Bolaven. Its all there. 6 days out, the teleconnection is ridging in the SW Atlantic in the Northern Hemisphere. Based on Bolaven's track alone, up in behind the Korean Peninsula, it telegraphs a NW FL/AL hit. Now whether the jtwc's track verifies remains to be seen. Stay tuned. But the lack of a recurve here with a NW/WNW bend in the interim, would wake me up if I lived between Bay Co., FL and Jackson Co., MS. Just some food for thought while you are waiting on more models to come out. Love to all, especially up in Lincoln Park, I'll. 
this post is fully disclaimed as per site rules yet it sends all the love I got to all y'all. Keep the discourse up to a level you would be proud of, and I will see you all next major threat. Peace.
this post is fully disclaimed as per site rules yet it sends all the love I got to all y'all. Keep the discourse up to a level you would be proud of, and I will see you all next major threat. Peace.
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deltadog03
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Steve Weagle says that its better news for S Florida that we are out of the error cone.
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Aric Dunn
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deltadog03 wrote:Well, if that is right...the Alley way there, then we could see some swings back towards the right tonight.
very true. look at 5oomb heights.
quite be less expansive ridge.
pre g-iv data.
00z run
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
boca wrote:Steve Weagle says that its better news for S Florida that we are out of the error cone.
We're in the cone still lol.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
boca wrote:Steve Weagle says that its better news for S Florida that we are out of the error cone.
this weagle is a funny guy, what channel is he on
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
NHC sees the weaker ridge too. From 11 PM disc.
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS CAUSING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ISAAC SHOULD TURN TOWARD A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LATEST GFS
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS CAUSING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ISAAC SHOULD TURN TOWARD A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LATEST GFS
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
jlauderdal wrote:boca wrote:Steve Weagle says that its better news for S Florida that we are out of the error cone.
this weagle is a funny guy, what channel is he on
He's on WPTV channel 5 West Palm he is terrible
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OverlandHurricane
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Jevo
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GFS is a runnin
0z Initialized
0z Initialized
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
18z initialize ridging ... big difference in the strength and expanse .... more east shifts coming ?
00z with recon gulfstream data.
00z with recon gulfstream data.
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Aric Dunn
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by the way the nam 00z initial ridging is nearly identical to the 00z gfs... sign of things to come ?
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
boca wrote:jlauderdal wrote:boca wrote:Steve Weagle says that its better news for S Florida that we are out of the error cone.
this weagle is a funny guy, what channel is he on
He's on WPTV channel 5 West Palm he is terrible
Not to be off topic too much, but I think that should be a firing offense for a TV met.. just my opinion.
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Jevo
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0z GFS + 12
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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