ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Some times the Gulf Stream boosts some times it doesn't. It did this time.


I'm not sure what the image posting rules are but here is a historic shot of Sandy heading towards New Jersey while intensifying:


http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... QpadFc.jpg

[x-y-no]

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

NHC is still very much involved in predicting this storm and assisting the local NWS stations in getting out warnings. The reason for this decision has been explained at the end of every advisory and discussion issued by NHC for the past couple of days. One may or may not agree with the reasoning, but there's also considerable chance of confusion if they were suddenly to throw all their established policies out the window in the middle of an event.

[ROCK]

Recon just found 937.5mb now

kudos to the model as they saw this stregnthening on approach.....not sure how low it will go but it doesnt look good....winds have already responded and now up to 90MPH....

[Praxus]

This is a cool gif

[Evil Jeremy]

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

It won't be a hurricane when it hits land, and according to protocol this would require dropping hurricane warnings. The NHC discussion has explained this fact in every advisory. They are coordinating with local NWS offices to handle wind and flood warnings.

This has caused a lot of discussion in the weather community and I think there will be controversy in the coming aftermath due to this decision. I've seen lots of meteorologists repeating their disagreement of this move.

Jim Cantore ‏on Twitter: "I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast."

[Hurricane_Luis]

The countdown to Sandy's landfall has begun, be careful and be safe North-West US.

Hurricane Sandy 90 mph (80 Knots, 150 km/h), 943 mbr

[KBBOCA]

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

AGREE!!! I'm not bashing NHC, they've nailed the forecast and their info has been good and accurate. But I feel this was a public safety / communications error of the highest magnitude.

[Sanibel]

Definite tightening. The only good thing is no bullseye on New York Harbor. But it might not make much difference.

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... display=25

Convection near center continues and a CDO like feature continues to expand.

[Stephanie]

Definite tightening. The only good thing is no bullseye on New York Harbor. But it might not make much difference.

Still in the Northeast quadrant...

[Stormcenter]

Great post and I agree 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This will have all the affects of a hurricane and then some. IMO

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

AGREE!!! I'm not bashing NHC, they've nailed the forecast and their info has been good and accurate. But I feel this was a public safety / communications error of the highest magnitude.

[ROCK]

if she drops her pressure any more you could see cat 2 winds before landfall....there is still plenty of time left.

[x-y-no]

Jim Cantore ‏on Twitter: "I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast."

While I respect Jim Cantore, he ought to know it's not entirely NHC's call - they must and do coordinate with the local NWS offices and with other agencies. This may very well merit a review of policies after the fact, but there's substantial risk in simply disregarding the policies you do have in place as well.

[gwynne]

I really don't get the lack of Watches/Warnings from the NHC. It's still a hurricane, right? Barrelling directly at the NJ coast, and the only thing they have up (as has been the case for some time) is a TS warning for NC. Can anyone explain the thinking here. I understand that this is a 'hybrid' and is expected to go 'extra tropical'. But the NHC is still tracking it and publishing their 5 day cone, so why the lack of watches/warnings?

NHC is still very much involved in predicting this storm and assisting the local NWS stations in getting out warnings. The reason for this decision has been explained at the end of every advisory and discussion issued by NHC for the past couple of days. One may or may not agree with the reasoning, but there's also considerable chance of confusion if they were suddenly to throw all their established policies out the window in the middle of an event.

I understand why they have taken this stand. JMO, the rather long winded explanation doesn't really help get the alert out to folks. It sort of dilutes the message. It reads like some sort of a meteorologic turf war.

[HurrMark]

Definite tightening. The only good thing is no bullseye on New York Harbor. But it might not make much difference.

A Jersey landfall is just as bad in this case. I don't think it would make any difference.

[KBBOCA]

Definite tightening. The only good thing is no bullseye on New York Harbor. But it might not make much difference.

Sanibel, NOT TRUE!!!! A bullseye on NY Harbor would be BETTER for NYC in terms of surge. If this makes the expected hard west turn into south or central NJ it will push a MASSIVE AMOUNT of water in NY harbor and LongIsland Sound.

At least from a surge stanpoint, a direct hit (like with Irene) would have been better.

DISCLAIMER: I'm an AMATEUR and may be WRONG! Listen to the NHC & NWS & local emergency officials!!

[Sanibel]

Can't believe what I'm watching. Zero hour New York Harbor around 9 tonight.

[clipper35]

Jim Cantore ‏on Twitter: "I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast."

While I respect Jim Cantore, he ought to know it's not entirely NHC's call - they must and do coordinate with the local NWS offices and with other agencies. This may very well merit a review of policies after the fact, but there's substantial risk in simply disregarding the policies you do have in place as well.

no its the goverments call they pay the salaries and provide the funding for there equipment in other obama has the authority to make them change that and i expect him to address that at noon

[wxsouth]

Aircraft data is quite interesting. Wind data is showing that the intense low-level (below 700mb) jet that was on the south side of the system last night, appears to be rotating to the northern side of the circulation. This has been well forecast by most of the numerical guidance, and should result in significant winds from central NJ northward as Sandy approaches landfall.

[N2FSU]

Pics now on Twitter of Atlantic City underwater, with parts of the boardwalk floating downtown.