ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think this may relocate E in the convection

[littlevince]

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050023
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 15 20120805
001500 1432N 07224W 8428 01571 0088 +180 +156 013011 011 013 003 00
001530 1431N 07225W 8433 01565 0085 +181 +164 015012 012 015 002 00
001600 1430N 07227W 8429 01569 0086 +182 +156 018011 013 016 002 00
001630 1429N 07228W 8432 01566 0090 +177 +158 028010 011 013 002 00
001700 1427N 07229W 8430 01568 0092 +175 +158 032011 011 013 002 00
001730 1426N 07230W 8429 01569 0094 +172 +163 032012 012 007 004 00
001800 1425N 07232W 8429 01572 0094 +173 +170 028011 012 016 003 00
001830 1424N 07233W 8432 01568 0087 +185 +155 025011 012 019 002 00
001900 1422N 07234W 8429 01572 0089 +184 +160 033008 011 016 001 00
001930 1421N 07235W 8429 01571 0087 +186 +158 037006 006 012 003 00
002000 1420N 07236W 8429 01571 0087 +189 +152 040006 007 010 003 00
002030 1419N 07238W 8428 01572 0086 +187 +165 034007 009 014 003 00
002100 1417N 07239W 8432 01569 0088 +185 +157 052004 006 018 002 00
002130 1416N 07240W 8429 01572 0087 +186 +159 073005 005 018 003 00
002200 1415N 07241W 8429 01572 0087 +185 +158 057006 006 016 003 00
002230 1414N 07242W 8430 01571 0087 +185 +159 043007 007 016 002 00
002300 1412N 07244W 8429 01572 0086 +188 +161 045007 007 014 002 00
002330 1411N 07245W 8428 01572 0087 +186 +160 055007 008 014 002 00
002400 1410N 07246W 8429 01571 0088 +184 +158 056009 009 008 002 00
002430 1409N 07247W 8429 01571 0088 +182 +155 059008 009 006 002 00
$$

[KWT]

It's clearly not a 60kt storm, heck they are struggling to even close off the circulation at the moment. This one is reminding me of Pre-Dolly 2008 at the moment, that system looked amazing as an invest but recon couldn't find a decent circulation for days on end.

Recon reports showing this is a struggling system, despite the convective outbursts.

[Hurricaneman]

I will faithfully wait for 11 because I think this storm is a 60kt storm.

This is not even close to a 60kt storm, if anything at best its a 40kt storm looking at the recon data

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE #5

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 00:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 05

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 5th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 15.1N 71.6W
Location: 243 miles (391 km) to the SSE (168°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 95° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)
1000mb 66m (217 ft) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 90° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
925mb 752m (2,467 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.7°C (71.1°F) 20° (from the NNE) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,487m (4,879 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 115° (from the ESE) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:57Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 15.1N 71.64W
Splash Time: 0:00Z

Release Location: 15.1N 71.64W View map)
Release Time: 23:57:43Z

Splash Location: 15.1N 71.64W (
Splash Time: 23:59:56Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1007mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1007mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.6°C (76.3°F)
850mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F)
843mb Unavailable

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)
894mb 50° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph)
858mb 115° (from the ESE) 5 knots (6 mph)
843mb 115° (from the ESE) 4 knots (5 mph)




[Shuriken]

Right now, the satellite presentation resembles that of a 70 mph storm or a 75 mph hurricane, although the outflow is now poorly defined....

Huh? I defy you to find a tropical storm with better-looking outflow than Ernesto's. Many hurricanes are worse-looking.

(It's a pity they don't have, or don't release, radar imagery from recon. Hmm.... I wonder much trouble it would be to install a 37 ghz microwave on an Orion.....)

Yes I remember once seeing a system that was totally unstacked for about 3-4 days in the Caribbean finally stack in the matter of 3-5hrs in the W.Caribbean and make a run at hurricane before landfall over the Yucatan. Can't remember what system it was, but it was very impressive to see it play out before your eyes.

I remember watching Iris croak to a nearly naked wind-shift line in the LAs, then rocket back to 145mph will zooming along at bat-out-of-hell forward speed.

<scamper off to listen to Meat Loaf on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8jBMYr5pG4 >

[brunota2003]

Oh man, I overbid. not even 55 to 59 :o

Recon mission isn't over yet I said through the entire mission.

[Dave]

Ok I'm going to take a break for awhile...Little Vince has me covered. Mark if you need a break from graphics let us know, Vince or myself can do them. Stretching legs for a few minutes and taking a look at the severe weather up in central Indiana right now.

[KWT]

Does anyone think this may relocate E in the convection

Once the lower level windflow slows down (providing it does of course!) then you'll see the convection almost leap westwards towards the LLC. Thats the more common way these TC's seem to do things. Every now and then the LLC itself will reform into the convection but I don't think that will happen this time.

Recon at the moment is suggesting 40kts.

[tolakram]

Oh man, I overbid. not even 55 to 59 :o

Recon mission isn't over yet I said through the entire mission.

That top is going to fly off any second, and unless the next burst is fast and furious I'm doomed.

[Dave]

Oh man, I overbid. not even 55 to 59 :o

Recon mission isn't over yet I said through the entire mission.

That top is going to fly off any second, and unless the next burst is fast and furious I'm doomed.

Btw I said under 45 kts.

[Kingarabian]

URNT12 KNHC 041616
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/15:54:20Z
B. 14 deg 26 min N
068 deg 44 min W
C. 850 mb 1457 m
D. 32 kt
E. 302 deg 44 nm
F. 068 deg 34 kt
G. 307 deg 86 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 14 C / 1520 m
J. 19 C / 1519 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 14
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 14:15:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 16:06:00Z
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OBS 04

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 00:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 0:01:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°06'N 71°49'W (15.1N 71.8167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 240 miles (387 km) to the S (172°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,492m (4,895ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 44kts (From the SE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 114 nautical miles (131 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,582m (5,190ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,563m (5,128ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 13kts (~ 15.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 0:09:30Z



[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050033
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 16 20120805
002500 1407N 07249W 8429 01571 0087 +182 +163 058007 008 007 003 00
002530 1406N 07250W 8428 01572 0086 +182 +173 038008 009 004 003 00
002600 1405N 07251W 8429 01569 0090 +170 +170 033008 008 004 004 01
002630 1403N 07252W 8430 01571 0088 +182 +174 020010 011 005 004 00
002700 1402N 07253W 8430 01569 0089 +182 +173 018012 013 004 003 00
002730 1401N 07255W 8429 01573 0090 +180 +175 024015 015 005 003 00
002800 1400N 07256W 8430 01572 0089 +180 +171 023017 018 004 003 00
002830 1358N 07257W 8429 01572 0089 +182 +169 023018 018 005 003 00
002900 1357N 07258W 8429 01573 0088 +183 +168 030018 019 009 002 00
002930 1356N 07300W 8429 01572 0090 +180 +168 033018 019 008 002 00
003000 1354N 07301W 8429 01572 0093 +170 +170 034015 017 007 003 01
003030 1353N 07302W 8429 01572 0092 +176 +175 036016 016 009 002 00
003100 1352N 07304W 8429 01572 0089 +180 +173 030016 017 013 002 00
003130 1350N 07305W 8429 01573 0089 +182 +164 033016 017 006 003 00
003200 1349N 07306W 8430 01571 0089 +183 +160 039014 015 003 003 00
003230 1348N 07307W 8428 01569 0087 +180 +170 022012 014 002 005 03
003300 1347N 07306W 8430 01569 0087 +182 +172 021010 011 000 005 00
003330 1347N 07304W 8430 01569 0088 +182 +162 029010 010 003 004 00
003400 1347N 07302W 8430 01569 0088 +181 +159 027010 011 005 003 00
003430 1347N 07301W 8430 01569 0088 +183 +162 029012 013 006 002 00
$$

[Nederlander]

Does anyone think this may relocate E in the convection

Once the lower level windflow slows down (providing it does of course!) then you'll see the convection almost leap westwards towards the LLC. Thats the more common way these TC's seem to do things. Every now and then the LLC itself will reform into the convection but I don't think that will happen this time.

Recon at the moment is suggesting 40kts.

I think they missed the center (so far). Looks to be a little NW of their flight path..

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

Who would have thought that Florence would be more stronger than Ernesto. See what I mean at the Florence thread.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050043
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120805
003500 1347N 07259W 8429 01571 0088 +185 +158 028013 013 009 002 00
003530 1347N 07257W 8429 01571 0088 +183 +158 028011 012 007 001 00
003600 1347N 07256W 8431 01568 0087 +184 +160 027011 012 004 003 00
003630 1347N 07254W 8430 01569 0088 +185 +161 027010 011 006 002 00
003700 1348N 07252W 8430 01568 0085 +188 +154 019008 009 007 002 00
003730 1348N 07251W 8428 01572 0088 +188 +155 022008 008 007 002 00
003800 1348N 07249W 8430 01572 0088 +185 +156 028008 008 007 002 00
003830 1348N 07247W 8430 01569 0085 +187 +153 011007 008 006 003 00
003900 1348N 07246W 8428 01572 0085 +185 +153 009007 007 005 004 00
003930 1348N 07244W 8430 01568 0084 +186 +154 005006 007 006 002 00
004000 1348N 07242W 8428 01571 0084 +190 +152 008005 006 005 002 00
004030 1348N 07241W 8429 01569 0084 +186 +155 009004 005 006 002 00
004100 1348N 07239W 8429 01569 0083 +188 +154 001006 007 006 003 00
004130 1349N 07237W 8432 01567 0087 +180 +167 001006 007 006 003 00
004200 1349N 07236W 8429 01569 0088 +179 +167 005005 007 004 003 00
004230 1349N 07234W 8430 01568 0089 +175 +171 348002 003 006 003 00
004300 1349N 07232W 8433 01564 0088 +177 +172 007003 004 007 002 00
004330 1349N 07230W 8427 01572 0091 +173 +173 351004 004 006 003 00
004400 1349N 07229W 8429 01569 0091 +170 +170 337005 005 004 003 01
004430 1349N 07227W 8429 01569 0092 +174 +172 344004 005 010 002 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

Who would have thought that Florence would be more stronger than Ernesto. See what I mean at the Florence thread.

*raises hand*

Looks like there's a good chance of RI. If it keeps It up, a hurricane at 11 is totally possible.

At 11 AM? Not gonna happen. While the satellite presentation is improving, it's not doing so rapidly. In fact, the presentation of TD 6 (which looks more like a tropical storm RIGHT NOW) in both visible and M/I is more impressive than that of Ernesto IMO.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, gang.