ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Texashawk]

Looks like we're going to have a pressure under 1000 MB... certainly seems to be getting its act together, but then again, how many times have we been fooled before?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we're going to have a pressure under 1000 MB... certainly seems to be getting its act together, but then again, how many times have we been fooled before?

yeah its looking like its going to be. the winds are very light though rather strange.

[stormhunter7]

NOAA42 recon plan for 4am flight... recover back in tampa

http://noaahrd.files.wordpress.com/2012 ... 0824h1.gif

[Texashawk]

I've gotta to chuckle a little bit in sympathy for the guys and gals onboard the HH - I can just hear it now:

"Where the @#$%@ is the center? We've crisscrossed this damn storm 5 times now!"

"Well, we can't stop now - we can't tell NOAA that this thing's an open wave... keep looking!"

[stormhunter7]

noticed the 2am adv. had estimated pressure.. meaning recon hadn't found center yet. lol

[meriland23]

what are the chances the current ridge prediction will be completely different by crunch time? just opinion

[Shuriken]

"Dangit! Where is that sucker? They said it was around here somewhere!"

[stormhunter7]

I've gotta to chuckle a little bit in sympathy for the guys and gals onboard the HH - I can just hear it now:

"Where the @#$%@ is the center? We've crisscrossed this damn storm 5 times now!"

"Well, we can't stop now - we can't tell NOAA that this thing's an open wave... keep looking!"

Wx Officer which way.... uh... go right 45... no, go left 45...

[stormhunter7]

looks like recon found flt level center at 5kft.... also known as a mid level vort? lol

[wxman76]

look where it is down near 15N! Nice wind shifr from 94 degrees to 236. Still an estimated pressure of 1000.2

[stormhunter7]

also note.. the flt level center is on east side of convection. Could the center be down there too?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

(Hurricane Gilbert) didn't scrape by Dominican Republic. It was a good 2 1/2 degrees south of there at the time it strengthened to a cat 3.

It was a very large storm; banding went over the the Dominican Republic.

Gilbert completely obscuring all of Hispaniola:

Gilbert took the roof off of my grandmothers house in Jamaica. One of the events that led to me being a weather nerd. I'm glad this storm is having trouble developing since it would be so devastating to these islands.

[jenmrk]

When will the gulf states begin to feel the affects of the storm?

[Shuriken]

No more northern center. Ker-*poof*.

[stormhunter7]

recon found something at 15.0667N 69.5833W... but SFMR data is showing 35kts plus... hmm... what did they find.. a flight lever center at 5kft?

[meriland23]

No more northern center. Ker-*poof*.

le sigh.. just when you assume it will turn nw at 16n. so what, going west now? wonder 'how' this will change things.. that is a significant alteration

[Hammy]

they may have been checking to see if there were other vorticies elsewhere

[stormhunter7]

well they did a figure 8 on this area and got west winds.. and bugged out to the north.. hmm

[Cyclenall]

There is no recon support for even a mesovort at 16.7N. Maybe 16.2 but definitely not 16.7. Whose idea was that???

I have NO idea. Pasch wrote the advisory. I think he needs to go home and get some rest.

I know your sleeping right now, but I'm right there with you. I have no idea why the NHC was using that northern vort max this whole time and all the models being initialized like that too. The convection that was over that area didn't look like sustaining convection (more like linear storms firing off) and why on earth would a LLC form where convection is not at its deepest and hasn't been present that long? It looks incredibly silly. All day I thought the southern one was the dominant one for obvious reasons but somehow this northern one that no longer exists got attention. Add to that, wnw movement? Where did that come from? The mass of convection is what I'm following (others have said this) and it looks mainly west but slow. The whole situation is bizarre to say the least.

"Dangit! Where is that sucker? They said it was around here somewhere!"

Yep, it would be funny if it was an open wave again, really funny. I pretty much agree with your imagery of center locations during the past few hours (maybe more south for the mid-level) but your previous prediction of Isaac taking off after 9:00 am yesterday didn't really pan out I think.

[wxman76]

15.083N 69.550W recon found an estimated 999.6 mb pressure. They were only at 5k ft so may not be too far off!