ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

Based on IR data in sats... pretty sure recon is getting bumped around tonight

[meriland23]

15.083N 69.550W recon found an estimated 999.6 mb pressure. They were only at 5k ft so may not be too far off!

that is so far off of nhc prediction.. that is the same position as it was this time last night, maybe even more south. Hopefully the new adv at 5 explains

[JamesCaneTracker]

Based on where Recon is finding the center it would have to travel at a heading of 307.09 from here on out in order to just barely clip Haiti anything less then that it would miss Haiti all together!

[Texashawk]

It's great that we have all this new fancy Gulfstream data and the most powerful models in the world reaching a near-consensus on where Isaac will go!!

Now all he has to do is, well, actually start to go north at some point.

[Shuriken]

le sigh.. just when you assume it will turn nw at 16n. so what, going west now? wonder 'how' this will change things.. that is a significant alteration

Oh yeah -- I guarantee you that Jamaicans are going to go nuts in the morning. A 300-degree heading from 15N/69.5W would take Isaac right over the island.

They were well left of the cone before.

[TwisterFanatic]

So did we get an apparent 'center' relocation in the huge blob?

[meriland23]

my concern is jamaica, but also what happens in the gulf.. where it goes, sure.. but I am assuming that this changes the speed based on lack of land mass interaction and being further south..

[Texashawk]

le sigh.. just when you assume it will turn nw at 16n. so what, going west now? wonder 'how' this will change things.. that is a significant alteration

Oh yeah -- I guarantee you that Jamaicans are going to go nuts in the morning. A 300-degree heading from 15N/69.5W would take Isaac right over the island.

They were well left of the cone before.

Not to mention Louisiana/upper Texas coast folk.

[Texashawk]

So did we get an apparent 'center' relocation in the huge blob?

Looks that way - at least something seems to be developing down there, Big and broad, but developing.

[stormhunter7]

still waiting to see if thats the center.. the surface winds were high there.. recon moving NW.. may find another center soon...

**there in a bumpy ride right now.. lol SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr (~ 0.55 in/hr)

[wxman76]

To me the latest satellites i can just see northward moving convection on the far east side of the blob. The center isn't exposed. To me this may be the real consolidation we have been waiting for.

[Texashawk]

Y'know, if the NHC had said this was tracking 255 or so... I'd completely buy it.

[Cyclenall]

that is so far off of nhc prediction.. that is the same position as it was this time last night, maybe even more south. Hopefully the new adv at 5 explains

If your looking for answers in the 5:00 am adv, don't be surprised if you don't get any, I didn't and its 58 hours and counting now . If the center is dramatically to the south of their point, if they officially put the new point where the southern one is, their forecast will "break" and none of the models will look realistic (IMO). How all of that will all go down I don't know...I've been wondering that all day and even yesterday.

[wxman76]

latest recon shows they are moving to the west northwest from the possible center. Pressures come up some but winds are NNE just as you would expect if you were WEst northwest of the center.

[perk]

It's great that we have all this new fancy Gulfstream data and the most powerful models in the world reaching a near-consensus on where Isaac will go!!

Now all he has to do is, well, actually start to go north at some point.

If we have a new center around 15.0N those models do a consensus,but they're landfalls are probably wrong.

[lester]

081
URNT12 KNHC 240720
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 24/06:55:40Z
B. 15 deg 03 min N
069 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 37 kt
E. 211 deg 6 nm
F. 116 deg 38 kt
G. 011 deg 168 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1513 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF300 1009A ISAAC OB 03
MAX FL WIND 38 KT N QUAD 05:27:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 332 / 71 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[meriland23]

that was a cool little map above, gave it a shot.. but instead used current predicted path only to hisp.. if and say the nhc is stubborn enough to take that track still, it would need to make a NNW turn, looks kind of ridiculous and not realistic..

[stormhunter7]

so its official.. uh oh.. B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W)

[Texashawk]

081
URNT12 KNHC 240720
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 24/06:55:40Z
B. 15 deg 03 min N
069 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 37 kt
E. 211 deg 6 nm
F. 116 deg 38 kt
G. 011 deg 168 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1513 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF300 1009A ISAAC OB 03
MAX FL WIND 38 KT N QUAD 05:27:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 332 / 71 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

wow... some nervous NHC folks tonight... does anybody know who gets to write up/explain this one?

[wxman76]

dropsond report 15.0N 69.6W sfc pressure 1000 mb wind 225 degrees. 26 kts