ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shuriken]

wow... some nervous NHC folks tonight... does anybody know who gets to write up/explain this one?

Someone not as nervous as the guy who wrote the last one.

- - - -

A track everyone dreads:

[stormhunter7]

how do you find a surface pressure?

1000mb (29.53 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) air temp 25.8°C (78.4°F) dwpt 24.8°C (76.6°F) wind dir 225° (from the SW) wind speed 26 knots (30 mph)

[lester]

wow... some nervous NHC folks tonight... does anybody know who gets to write up/explain this one?

I heard that Stewart will write up the 5am products, not sure if it's true however

[SunnyThoughts]

oh my...I don't know why I"m still up, but I'm glad I stayed awake. Can things get anymore confusing?

[Texashawk]

081
URNT12 KNHC 240720
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 24/06:55:40Z
B. 15 deg 03 min N
069 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 37 kt
E. 211 deg 6 nm
F. 116 deg 38 kt
G. 011 deg 168 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 18 C / 1513 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF300 1009A ISAAC OB 03
MAX FL WIND 38 KT N QUAD 05:27:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 332 / 71 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

wow... some nervous NHC folks tonight... does anybody know who gets to write up/explain this one?

I heard that Stewart will write up the 5am products

Excellent. I very much look forward to Stacy's explanations and thoughts.

[meriland23]

if this is true, it is on its way perfectly through the gulf me thinks (IMO) and into the warmer part of it, this makes for a scary tale if it comes true. I am still concerned about the steering! Models flip flop with that ridge.. either stationary in the gulf.. and heaven help you, or fast pace and still considerable, but not near as bad. These new coordinates, it changes the timing in many ways.

[stormhunter7]

Would love to hear this explanation.. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/UZNT13/KNHC/

[Texashawk]

So far, the wind field looks remarkably... normal. Which means this relocation will probably be the one that sticks, right?

[Cyclenall]

wow... some nervous NHC folks tonight... does anybody know who gets to write up/explain this one?

While I wouldn't have set the position at that certain coordinate that now doesn't exist, if I was in line to write the next advisory, I would be terrified.

I heard that Stewart will write up the 5am products, not sure if it's true however

Cool, this should be the longest discussion in history .

oh my...I don't know why I"m still up, but I'm glad I stayed awake. Can things get anymore confusing?

Actually this makes much more sense to me than the NHC's position, that was the most confusing thing of 2012.

[wxman76]

To me the circulation tonight looks a heck of a lot less chaotic than it did this morning. This thing is organizing IMO, whether it sticks time will tell. Frankly i like the southern western track better than any of the models. Why? Because until I see this thing turn i don't buy the models turning it! Sometimes the best model is still the human brain.

[stormhunter7]

6z data has 16.2N 69.4W... that 85 miles from latest VDM.. uh oh

[Shuriken]

[Texashawk]

I heard that Stewart will write up the 5am products, not sure if it's true however

Cool, this should be the longest discussion in history .

I'm getting my popcorn and Milk Duds ready.

[Texashawk]

Such an orderly, boring wind field, continuing to slog due west. Somehow all this makes me, as a proud Houstonian, quite nervous.



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[meriland23]

From earlier this afternoon

think the NHC is being kind of ridiculous with that nw shift in that short amount of time now. For all we know it could still be 15.4N at 70W

...maybe I should just keep my mouth shut from now on lol

[wxman76]

latest recon showing nothing up at 16.050N 71.117W. wonder what happens at 16.6N maybe they will find the nunsuch center of the storm!

[Texashawk]

From earlier this afternoon

think the NHC is being kind of ridiculous with that nw shift in that short amount of time now. For all we know it could still be 15.4N at 70W

...maybe I should just keep my mouth shut from now on lol

...or even farther south. Oh, but how ridiculous! Ho ho! What fun! That'd be craz..... whoops.

[stormhunter7]

dropsonde data had sw at last 1kft... so center was to left or west of Dropsonde splash

[wxman76]

From earlier this afternoon

think the NHC is being kind of ridiculous with that nw shift in that short amount of time now. For all we know it could still be 15.4N at 70W

...maybe I should just keep my mouth shut from now on lol

ok let me get this straight your not a met but you made a better forecast than a bunch of pro's? Nice Congrats!

[JamesCaneTracker]

Well Recon is starting in with their normal X patterns through the center so I am guessing they like this southern Center!