ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OBS 08

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 01:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 1:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°13'N 72°18'W (15.2167N 72.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 230 miles (370 km) to the S (179°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,497m (4,911ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 173° at 39kts (From the S at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,572m (5,157ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,567m (5,141ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 23:21:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 1:54:00Z



[wjs3]

Ok, so do we have two centers/swirls? One that's been tracked all day and a second windshift that is off to the SSW? Sure looks like it based on the HDOBs earlier in the pass, right?

That's not good, if you're of the opinion that "this is intensifying rapidly."

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050203
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 25 20120805
015500 1551N 07259W 8430 01594 0112 +186 +159 076042 042 030 002 00
015530 1553N 07300W 8429 01594 0114 +185 +162 076041 041 029 003 00
015600 1554N 07301W 8431 01593 0115 +185 +164 074040 040 028 002 00
015630 1555N 07303W 8429 01594 0116 +180 +165 072040 041 030 002 00
015700 1557N 07304W 8431 01595 0119 +180 +167 071041 042 027 003 00
015730 1558N 07305W 8426 01600 0120 +180 +173 070041 042 028 003 00
015800 1559N 07307W 8430 01597 0120 +176 +174 070041 042 028 003 00
015830 1600N 07308W 8429 01597 0121 +178 +171 069041 042 025 004 00
015900 1602N 07309W 8429 01600 0121 +180 +174 069040 040 026 002 00
015930 1603N 07311W 8430 01600 0124 +177 +171 068039 040 028 001 00
020000 1604N 07312W 8429 01600 0126 +174 +172 069041 041 025 003 00
020030 1605N 07313W 8429 01601 0125 +170 +170 072039 040 026 002 01
020100 1607N 07314W 8429 01601 0125 +170 +170 072039 039 026 002 01
020130 1608N 07316W 8428 01604 0126 +175 +173 074039 040 024 003 00
020200 1609N 07317W 8429 01604 0128 +170 +170 074040 041 027 003 01
020230 1610N 07318W 8430 01604 0130 +175 +173 074042 042 029 002 00
020300 1612N 07320W 8432 01602 0130 +176 +168 073041 041 027 002 00
020330 1613N 07321W 8429 01605 0129 +176 +169 074041 042 028 001 00
020400 1614N 07322W 8430 01604 0128 +180 +166 073042 043 029 003 00
020430 1616N 07324W 8419 01615 0129 +170 +170 074037 041 028 008 01
$$
;

[wjs3]

Y'know...after looking at the HDOBs for a minute more--It looks like an inverted trough/wave now (gulp...I know a lot of people hate to hear this)...looks like S to N windshift along a NNE-SSW axis where recon has flown.

[Meteorcane]

Lol this thing could be degenerating into an open wave as predicted by the Euro and GFS for the last couple of days wouldn't that be something?

[wxman57]

Ernesto has a fairly sharp trof axis, though a poorly-defined LLC. It appears to already be tracking south of all the 00Z model guidance. Still not seeing any northward turn into the central Gulf. Models continue to shift south and west. West into central to southern Yucatan (Belize) looking more likely, followed by W-WNW into Mexico, probably south of Tampico.

[tolakram]

I see a circulation on the recon, but on the SW side of the convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yea, I agree, should not be expecting west winds from that angle. I would really like to see a north/south pass but I'm sure recon can see what's happening out there.

[hurricanes1234]

Shuriken, if you take a moment and read my comment properly, I said it was slightly less defined in my opinion.

You initially described it as "poorly defined"; and I replied that that is/was not that case, and believe that can be objectively determined (i.e., take it out of the realm of opinion into fact) as well by comparison to other storms of similar intensity. Ernesto already had a large outflow canopy at dawn this morning, and it quickly got bigger during the day as 200mb exhausting strongly overrode the area for all but a few hours during the diurnal maxima.

Cirrus outriders have now reached eastern Jamaica (and I can faintly see the front of the 200mb clear-air outflow boundary advancing all the way to 80W): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Shuriken, I am sure you probably know quite a bit more than I do about TCs but that WV loop shows a lot to me. IMO, until Ernesto slows down, he will not intensify much if at all. The LLCC is almost out to the dry air ahead of it. That can not be good for development unless I have forgotten some of the stuff I have learned. It has got to be ingesting more dry air than most think, especially at the lower levels and obviously it is not spitting it all out or there would be intensification happening already. I still see dry air coming in off SA also even though it probably as much as it used to be. IMO, Ernesto also has got to get further N away from SA before we see much intensification.

Cape-Verde storms, such as this one, tend to create their own environment around them. In Ernesto's case, however, you noticed that the storm is ingesting dry air and is not getting rid of it. This has a small chance of putting a lid on significant strengthening within 24 hours; I would say only 20%.

___________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wjs3]

Ernesto has a fairly sharp trof axis, though a poorly-defined LLC. It appears to already be tracking south of all the 00Z model guidance. Still not seeing any northward turn into the central Gulf. Models continue to shift south and west. West into central to southern Yucatan (Belize) looking more likely, followed by W-WNW into Mexico, probably south of Tampico.

If it has an LLC. No west winds at all showing in recon.

[Ntxw]

Ernesto has a fairly sharp trof axis, though a poorly-defined LLC. It appears to already be tracking south of all the 00Z model guidance. Still not seeing any northward turn into the central Gulf. Models continue to shift south and west. West into central to southern Yucatan (Belize) looking more likely, followed by W-WNW into Mexico, probably south of Tampico.

Agree with this. Wouldn't bet against you Wxman57!. It's been taking the southerly route of the cone since passing the lesser Antilles. If no real decent LLC it could continue the trek into CA as shown by Euro several times can't even be discounted either.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050213
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 26 20120805
020500 1617N 07325W 8428 01606 0128 +181 +162 077036 037 024 003 00
020530 1618N 07326W 8433 01601 0129 +180 +166 076036 036 026 001 00
020600 1619N 07328W 8429 01606 0130 +181 +152 075039 040 025 002 00
020630 1621N 07329W 8429 01607 0131 +180 +150 076040 041 023 003 00
020700 1622N 07330W 8432 01604 0131 +180 +152 077040 041 019 004 00
020730 1623N 07332W 8432 01606 0133 +180 +162 076037 039 026 002 00
020800 1624N 07333W 8428 01611 0134 +180 +156 078040 041 028 003 00
020830 1626N 07334W 8428 01610 0134 +181 +150 077042 043 030 002 00
020900 1627N 07336W 8430 01608 0133 +183 +149 078042 043 028 003 00
020930 1628N 07337W 8429 01611 0135 +183 +154 076042 042 028 001 00
021000 1630N 07338W 8430 01610 0137 +178 +158 074043 044 028 002 00
021030 1631N 07340W 8432 01608 0133 +185 +151 072040 044 028 002 03
021100 1631N 07341W 8423 01617 0130 +191 +141 071037 038 /// /// 03
021130 1629N 07342W 8436 01606 0134 +186 +152 071040 041 027 003 03
021200 1628N 07342W 8426 01615 0134 +183 +157 069041 042 029 001 00
021230 1626N 07343W 8431 01607 0134 +180 +162 065041 042 030 001 00
021300 1624N 07343W 8430 01608 0134 +181 +153 068036 039 030 001 00
021330 1622N 07343W 8429 01606 0129 +186 +150 071036 037 028 002 00
021400 1621N 07344W 8430 01606 0129 +184 +151 074038 039 030 000 00
021430 1619N 07344W 8428 01608 0131 +181 +147 073041 042 030 000 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

A couple of vortex messages indicate several areas of lower pressure but west winds lacking near both vortex message fixes. I don't see any LLC up near 15.2N/72.3W as per the latest vortex. Plane didn't even report any wind shift as it passed that point. Well, time to watch a little more olympics and get to bed. 5am alarm for work tomorrow.

[littlevince]

[Portastorm]

Ernesto has a fairly sharp trof axis, though a poorly-defined LLC. It appears to already be tracking south of all the 00Z model guidance. Still not seeing any northward turn into the central Gulf. Models continue to shift south and west. West into central to southern Yucatan (Belize) looking more likely, followed by W-WNW into Mexico, probably south of Tampico.

Agree with this. Wouldn't bet against you Wxman57!. It's been taking the southerly route of the cone since passing the lesser Antilles. If no real decent LLC it could continue the trek into CA as shown by Euro several times can't even be discounted either.

It's a very rare thing when both globals are wrong. Earlier today folks said they couldn't understand what the GFS and Euro were seeing. Well, they were seeing what's happening now, a system which is going too fast and one which isn't aligned vertically. Yes ... it may change ... but for now, globals look bankable.

[brunota2003]

Now here comes the kicker...if this has indeed opened up into a very strong trough and has no low level circulation...do you downgrade it to just an area of low pressure, or do you keep it going? Knowing that the convection is very strong, the water temps are almost bathlike ahead, and it *should* slow down. Some forecasters are sitting on the hot seat tonight!

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think that maybe the LLCC is farther out of the convection than where recon went

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Vandymit]

Now here comes the kicker...if this has indeed opened up into a very strong trough and has no low level circulation...do you downgrade it to just an area of low pressure, or do you keep it going? Knowing that the convection is very strong, the water temps are almost bathlike ahead, and it *should* slow down. Some forecasters are sitting on the hot seat tonight!

Well, I think if Ernesto does not meet all the criteria of being a tropicial storm then it should be downgraded. But, these guys at the NHC sometimes throw the science books out the window.

[Meteorcane]

Now here comes the kicker...if this has indeed opened up into a very strong trough and has no low level circulation...do you downgrade it to just an area of low pressure, or do you keep it going? Knowing that the convection is very strong, the water temps are almost bathlike ahead, and it *should* slow down. Some forecasters are sitting on the hot seat tonight!

I think they would wait a while before downgrading a 60 mph storm with a decent satellite appearance, and the potential to get its act together in the near future. Now maybe if Recon still found no closed circ tomorrow I could see them gradually weakening it down.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050223
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120805
021500 1617N 07344W 8430 01606 0130 +183 +148 071041 043 029 000 00
021530 1615N 07345W 8429 01606 0128 +188 +141 065038 039 030 001 00
021600 1613N 07345W 8431 01607 0127 +193 +132 067037 037 031 000 00
021630 1612N 07345W 8429 01607 0130 +181 +154 067036 037 027 002 00
021700 1610N 07346W 8432 01602 0133 +174 +165 069037 039 029 001 00
021730 1608N 07346W 8428 01607 0133 +174 +162 070039 040 028 001 00
021800 1606N 07346W 8430 01605 0130 +179 +164 065036 038 027 002 00
021830 1605N 07347W 8432 01604 0130 +179 +160 066035 036 027 001 00
021900 1603N 07347W 8428 01607 0129 +179 +167 066036 037 029 001 00
021930 1601N 07348W 8429 01606 0126 +184 +159 068035 036 028 001 00
022000 1559N 07348W 8429 01606 0123 +188 +148 065034 035 029 000 00
022030 1557N 07348W 8428 01606 0123 +192 +130 066038 038 026 002 00
022100 1556N 07349W 8431 01602 0123 +193 +127 065036 038 030 001 00
022130 1554N 07349W 8430 01602 0123 +193 +126 063034 035 029 002 00
022200 1552N 07349W 8433 01600 0123 +190 +124 063034 034 027 001 00
022230 1550N 07350W 8429 01604 0124 +190 +126 061033 034 025 002 00
022300 1548N 07350W 8432 01601 0124 +190 +127 062033 033 025 002 00
022330 1547N 07350W 8429 01605 0122 +195 +124 059031 032 026 002 00
022400 1545N 07351W 8429 01605 0121 +198 +117 058031 032 025 002 00
022430 1543N 07351W 8428 01605 0123 +193 +122 058032 033 022 003 00
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

I just had a epiphany just now, you know earlier when we saw that little swirl out in front of what we thought was the circulation{NHC as well} that WxMan57 pointed out, I'm starting to believe that was the LLCC, but I could be wrong, and that area seems to still be out there west of the convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products