ATL: ISAAC - Models
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whats interesting is that at 123 hours this run the gfs continues a straight north drift while the 18z started moving west to wnw. clearly the gfs has a much weaker ridge. very important initialization and data.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
NGOM is clearly looking like the end game here. Final point will probably wobble from Atchafalaya bay LA to PCB, FL at this point for another day until it settles. Looks stronger though, not good overall. Im guessing euro pulls east this next run more toward Nola and less toward lake Charles.
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z
so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency
Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Wx_Warrior wrote:Exhausted, but Rock, will you join me later this evening for an 0z EURO run?
oh yeah....need another run in me to digest..
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GFS 18Z Landfall

GFS 0z Landfall

Approximately 130 Miles East However.. storm is not a dot on a map

GFS 0z Landfall

Approximately 130 Miles East However.. storm is not a dot on a map
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
DIwestender wrote:Ok...one down...now the Euro runs at 3:00 Eastern, correct?
Thanks so much for posting the GFS run!
1:45 et time
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Re: Re:
Javlin wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z
so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency
Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.
oh yeah. what city is there then. destin?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Could be quite nasty if it is able to traverse Cuba quickly, then strengthen a bit before brushing South Florida, then really ramp up in the GULF, causing the NGOM to deal with a Cat.2 type storm, but at the moment it is only a 45 mph storm with multiple vort problems, so all this could be for naught as it could simply gets.shredded by Cuba.
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Javlin wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z
so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency
Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.
oh yeah. what city is there then. destin?
yeah, looks like destin/ panama city beach maybe FT. Walton Beach
Last edited by SunnyThoughts on Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Looks like Destin to me on the 0Z....so about a 75 mile difference between the 18Z and 0Z....MGC
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- meriland23
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lets think realistically, there is way more in play than just the actual cyclone itself.. sure it is INCREDIBLY helpful that it was passed today to get a better idea.. but this has sooooo much to do with the ridge.. and timing. This thing will do what it wants, slows down just a little or speeds up.. it will change west/east more.. thinking it will keep flip flopping until sunday maybe... that is just my opinion
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BigB0882 wrote:There is no way that is 130 mile shift from 18z to tonights 0z. It is approximately 150 from Baton Rouge to Beaumont, TX and the difference in the landfall between 18z and 0z is not anywhere near the length of the state of Louisiana. I would say 75 miles MAX.

Eh.. 120 miles ish
Last edited by Jevo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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nogaps heading towards se florida. east shift there to.
72 hr miami dade landfall.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
72 hr miami dade landfall.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re:
meriland23 wrote:lets think realistically, there is way more in play than just the actual cyclone itself.. sure it is INCREDIBLY helpful that it was passed today to get a better idea.. but this has sooooo much to do with the ridge.. and timing. This thing will do what it wants, slows down just a little or speeds up.. it will change west/east more.. thinking it will keep flip flopping until sunday maybe... that is just my opinion
Yeah, its just the angle that its coming from...I think its going to be VERy hard to pinpoint a landfall area until it gets really close. Not like its moving due north making a beeline.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
See, the NAM is usefull! It was the first to incorporate the new data and sniffed out an eastern shift. GFS followed. Question is, how far east will the EURO shift (assuming it won't buck the trend)?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
look... its not that big of deal really....75 miles is diddly poo in the grand scheme of things...wobble here jog there and this could very well be east or west of the 18Z.....these dont move in straight lines...these nice curving lines on the map are not a true representation of the ridge...... 

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