ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Aric Dunn
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#2821 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:11 pm

whats interesting is that at 123 hours this run the gfs continues a straight north drift while the 18z started moving west to wnw. clearly the gfs has a much weaker ridge. very important initialization and data.
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#2822 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:11 pm

So what intensity do you guys think that run shows at landfall? Ball park figure?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2823 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:12 pm

NGOM is clearly looking like the end game here. Final point will probably wobble from Atchafalaya bay LA to PCB, FL at this point for another day until it settles. Looks stronger though, not good overall. Im guessing euro pulls east this next run more toward Nola and less toward lake Charles.
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#2824 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z


so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency



Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2825 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Exhausted, but Rock, will you join me later this evening for an 0z EURO run?


oh yeah....need another run in me to digest..
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#2826 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 pm

nogaps 00z slight east shift so far.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#2827 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 pm

GFS 18Z Landfall

Image

GFS 0z Landfall

Image

Approximately 130 Miles East However.. storm is not a dot on a map
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2828 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:14 pm

DIwestender wrote:Ok...one down...now the Euro runs at 3:00 Eastern, correct?

Thanks so much for posting the GFS run!


1:45 et time
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Re: Re:

#2829 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:15 pm

Javlin wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z


so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency



Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.


oh yeah. what city is there then. destin?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2830 Postby Meteorcane » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:16 pm

Could be quite nasty if it is able to traverse Cuba quickly, then strengthen a bit before brushing South Florida, then really ramp up in the GULF, causing the NGOM to deal with a Cat.2 type storm, but at the moment it is only a 45 mph storm with multiple vort problems, so all this could be for naught as it could simply gets.shredded by Cuba.
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Re: Re:

#2831 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Javlin wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:117 hours landfall panama city or about 100 miles east of 18z


so we have an decent east shift with new data. pretty much back to where the gfs was the last couple changes very good consistency



Thats more Pensacola;Panama is in that bend before the Big Bend area about 70miles maybe as the crow flies?.


oh yeah. what city is there then. destin?


yeah, looks like destin/ panama city beach maybe FT. Walton Beach
Last edited by SunnyThoughts on Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2832 Postby MGC » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:17 pm

Looks like Destin to me on the 0Z....so about a 75 mile difference between the 18Z and 0Z....MGC
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#2833 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:17 pm

There is no way that is 130 mile shift from 18z to tonights 0z. It is approximately 150 from Baton Rouge to Beaumont, TX and the difference in the landfall between 18z and 0z is not anywhere near the length of the state of Louisiana. I would say 75 miles MAX.
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#2834 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:17 pm

lets think realistically, there is way more in play than just the actual cyclone itself.. sure it is INCREDIBLY helpful that it was passed today to get a better idea.. but this has sooooo much to do with the ridge.. and timing. This thing will do what it wants, slows down just a little or speeds up.. it will change west/east more.. thinking it will keep flip flopping until sunday maybe... that is just my opinion
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#2835 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:18 pm

BigB0882 wrote:There is no way that is 130 mile shift from 18z to tonights 0z. It is approximately 150 from Baton Rouge to Beaumont, TX and the difference in the landfall between 18z and 0z is not anywhere near the length of the state of Louisiana. I would say 75 miles MAX.


Image

Eh.. 120 miles ish
Last edited by Jevo on Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2836 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:18 pm

nogaps heading towards se florida. east shift there to.

72 hr miami dade landfall.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#2837 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:19 pm

It is also important to remember that all the new data doesn't allow the model to perform any miracles. It gave it some GREAT stuff to work with but 5-7 days out is still nothing more than a big fat prediction.
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Re:

#2838 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:20 pm

meriland23 wrote:lets think realistically, there is way more in play than just the actual cyclone itself.. sure it is INCREDIBLY helpful that it was passed today to get a better idea.. but this has sooooo much to do with the ridge.. and timing. This thing will do what it wants, slows down just a little or speeds up.. it will change west/east more.. thinking it will keep flip flopping until sunday maybe... that is just my opinion



Yeah, its just the angle that its coming from...I think its going to be VERy hard to pinpoint a landfall area until it gets really close. Not like its moving due north making a beeline.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2839 Postby Dencolo » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:20 pm

See, the NAM is usefull! It was the first to incorporate the new data and sniffed out an eastern shift. GFS followed. Question is, how far east will the EURO shift (assuming it won't buck the trend)?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2840 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:21 pm

look... its not that big of deal really....75 miles is diddly poo in the grand scheme of things...wobble here jog there and this could very well be east or west of the 18Z.....these dont move in straight lines...these nice curving lines on the map are not a true representation of the ridge...... :roll:
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