ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Pick up the hdobs now Kingarabian...it's all yours! Please welcome a new recon member whose in training. Go for it Hawaii!

[Weatherfreak000]

Ehhh...kinda discouraging turn of events today it seems. I haven't been around, just catching up. Although I wasn't expecting him to react this way today, it wasn't totally unexpected. Remember, this storm is still east of Jamaica, that's still pretty far away. I noticed another user brought up an analog of a storm that did something like this and i'll concur, I remember a few storms that have acted this way. It is a combination of a very large overall size and too fast forward speed, I had expected Ernie to slow a little, didn't happen.


That all being said, the thing Ernie has the others didn't is Time. Ernie is in a good position to RI regardless of whether or not he has a closed circulation or not, and this is due to the impressive turning visible on MIMIC. Basically, Ernie is not going to dissipate, he is either going to spend a great deal of time getting organized...or he won't...and to say which is going to occur is nearly impossible.


No need to bring the "Downcast Brigade" out. Models can still shift back and forth wildly, it's still THAT far away. Once it passes Jamaica and he is still disorganized it will be much more clear cut. As some have said, tomorrow will be "The Day".

[brunota2003]

Welcome to the dark side!

[mcheer23]

This storm reminds me of claudette from 03

[Kingarabian]

URNT11 KNHC 050258
97779 02564 10140 74108 15300 06011 1816/ /2530
RMK AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 11
SWS = 8 KTS
;

[Dave]

Little help here....

000
URNT15 KNHC 050303
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 31 20120805
025500 1358N 07409W 8441 01590 0126 +177 +174 068013 015 010 003 00
025530 1400N 07408W 8425 01606 0124 +180 +164 066013 015 009 003 00
025600 1401N 07407W 8432 01600 0123 +181 +160 067013 013 010 003 00
025630 1402N 07406W 8430 01599 0122 +179 +166 062011 012 012 003 00
025700 1403N 07405W 8429 01601 0124 +178 +163 056010 011 011 002 00
025730 1404N 07404W 8429 01600 0127 +176 +165 057010 011 012 002 00
025800 1405N 07403W 8429 01601 0128 +175 +163 052011 012 008 003 00
025830 1406N 07402W 8430 01600 0127 +176 +161 044010 012 011 003 00
025900 1407N 07400W 8426 01603 0124 +178 +164 034012 013 016 002 00
025930 1409N 07359W 8433 01595 0123 +170 +170 038011 013 012 003 01
030000 1410N 07358W 8434 01595 0125 +174 +173 050010 011 018 002 00
030030 1411N 07357W 8426 01602 0125 +170 +170 047010 011 014 002 01
030100 1412N 07356W 8433 01596 0123 +176 +173 048010 010 010 004 00
030130 1413N 07355W 8429 01599 0123 +175 +158 057011 011 009 004 00
030200 1414N 07354W 8429 01597 0124 +175 +160 061011 011 010 003 00
030230 1415N 07352W 8432 01596 0122 +173 +164 062012 012 016 003 00
030300 1416N 07351W 8436 01591 0123 +174 +170 054010 012 016 003 00
030330 1418N 07350W 8430 01596 0122 +175 +166 047012 012 014 003 00
030400 1419N 07349W 8430 01596 0123 +176 +169 047011 012 014 003 00
030430 1420N 07348W 8433 01595 0120 +181 +164 047010 011 017 001 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Perhaps Ernesto is close to an open wave....don't matter how good the satellite presentation is...if there is no closed circulation its not a tropical cyclone.....maybe the center will or is reforming somewhere else...who knows. Lets just hope Ernesto don't get any stronger......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

I think I'm finally sold on the Mexico landfall now... You can kind of read the confidence in the NHC discussions as to where they believe it's going, and based upon what I've read, I have no reason to believe it will affect the US.....

I just don't see it being North enough to be picked up....

[littlevince]

Come on Kingarabian, it's not that hard . . .

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050313
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 32 20120805
030500 1421N 07347W 8429 01599 0120 +180 +166 046010 011 018 001 00
030530 1422N 07346W 8430 01599 0121 +181 +169 045009 010 019 002 00
030600 1423N 07345W 8432 01597 0121 +180 +175 039010 011 016 002 00
030630 1424N 07343W 8429 01599 0123 +170 +170 041009 009 015 002 01
030700 1425N 07342W 8430 01597 0122 +175 +170 048008 009 011 003 00
030730 1426N 07341W 8429 01597 0122 +179 +166 050008 009 012 003 00
030800 1428N 07340W 8431 01596 0120 +180 +167 054008 009 014 002 00
030830 1429N 07339W 8428 01600 0121 +180 +168 064008 008 010 003 00
030900 1430N 07338W 8429 01597 0121 +180 +165 057008 009 006 004 00
030930 1431N 07336W 8432 01595 0121 +180 +162 050010 011 005 004 00
031000 1432N 07335W 8429 01596 0120 +181 +156 052010 011 008 004 00
031030 1433N 07334W 8429 01596 0117 +185 +144 057011 011 010 003 00
031100 1434N 07333W 8428 01599 0117 +188 +138 061011 011 005 004 00
031130 1436N 07332W 8432 01595 0116 +190 +137 068009 010 009 003 00
031200 1437N 07331W 8429 01596 0114 +191 +141 059008 009 007 003 00
031230 1438N 07330W 8429 01596 0114 +191 +140 051009 010 005 003 00
031300 1439N 07328W 8430 01595 0113 +191 +140 045008 010 007 003 00
031330 1440N 07327W 8434 01591 0113 +193 +141 048006 007 012 003 00
031400 1441N 07326W 8428 01597 0111 +195 +141 036007 008 011 003 00
031430 1442N 07325W 8430 01594 0110 +195 +141 039007 008 009 002 00
$$
;

He's got a bad link...getting him updated now.

[hurricanetrack]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carins.png

Vert instability WAY below where it should be. Dry air is apparently abundant.

[gqhebert]

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...WITH A SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED OF OVER 20 KT. A
LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 285/19...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE
ADVISORY. THE REASON FOR THIS TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR.




I think this wnw/ nw jog mentioned here could make a huge difference in the eventual landfall location........just my opinion

[brunota2003]

NE winds to the SW of where the center should be? Ummmm...yeah.

Oops...meant NE, not NW.

[Shuriken]

Dry air is apparently abundant.

Did you see my post at the top of the page with the precipitable water loop?

Dry air has nothing to do with Ernesto's present intensity situation.

[mcheer23]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/gecarins.png

Vert instability WAY below where it should be. Dry air is apparently abundant.

Exactly what i was saying

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050323
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 33 20120805
031500 1443N 07324W 8425 01597 0110 +195 +140 035006 006 007 003 00
031530 1445N 07323W 8434 01589 0107 +198 +135 050006 006 011 003 00
031600 1446N 07321W 8428 01595 0107 +197 +132 052004 005 009 003 00
031630 1447N 07320W 8429 01593 0107 +198 +132 055004 004 013 002 00
031700 1448N 07319W 8433 01590 0107 +200 +132 048004 004 011 002 00
031730 1449N 07318W 8430 01591 0107 +198 +129 058002 003 006 004 00
031800 1450N 07317W 8428 01594 0107 +198 +127 084002 002 011 002 00
031830 1452N 07315W 8429 01593 0105 +200 +121 070001 002 009 003 00
031900 1453N 07314W 8429 01591 0105 +196 +141 047003 003 013 002 00
031930 1454N 07313W 8429 01590 0104 +198 +139 042005 006 006 004 00
032000 1455N 07312W 8429 01590 0106 +188 +170 044009 009 011 003 00
032030 1456N 07311W 8429 01590 0106 +190 +171 051008 009 008 003 00
032100 1457N 07309W 8429 01590 0103 +192 +171 054007 009 008 003 00
032130 1459N 07308W 8429 01589 0102 +193 +172 054006 007 010 004 00
032200 1500N 07307W 8428 01590 0101 +191 +173 045005 006 008 004 00
032230 1501N 07306W 8429 01588 0098 +195 +172 050004 005 004 004 00
032300 1502N 07305W 8429 01588 0102 +189 +172 081006 008 008 003 00
032330 1503N 07304W 8429 01586 0103 +186 +172 076008 009 002 004 00
032400 1504N 07302W 8431 01585 0103 +190 +169 087010 010 005 003 00
032430 1505N 07301W 8429 01588 0103 +186 +167 102011 011 003 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

There you go! You got it!! Go for it now!

[tolakram]

Dry air is apparently abundant.

Did you see my post at the top of the page with the precipitable water loop?

Dry air has nothing to do with Ernesto's present intensity situation.

The NHC seems to think otherwise.

IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. ONE POSSIBLE
CAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE
CYCLONE.

So I think it's a valid statement to make.

[littlevince]

[ROCK]

GFDL still the right outlier.....though I see the HWRF has come around....whats all this talk about no LLC? I just got back from the bar and we have no LLC......I am going back to the bar,,,,