ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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CronkPSU
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#2841 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:48 am

Looks like the nhc is still using the 16.1 north center for the 5 am update?..
Last edited by CronkPSU on Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2842 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:49 am

wow lol

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..490NE 90SE 0SW 490NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2843 Postby weatherwindow » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:51 am

meriland23 wrote:
JamesCaneTracker wrote:
Stormlover2012 wrote:so where is the new center located?

15.3N 69.8833W



Thought it was like 15.0 a hour ago

Was there a VDM transmitted with the 15.3 center, without it no go...Rich
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Re:

#2844 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:51 am

CronkPSU wrote:Looks like the nhc is still using the 16.1 north center for the 5 am update?..



**16.1
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2845 Postby lester » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:52 am

weatherwindow wrote:Was there a VDM transmitted with the 15.3 center, without it no go...Rich


there was, look back a page or 2
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2846 Postby wxman76 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:52 am

They are trying to save face I am sure. Recon does not agree with that position. can't wait for the discussion. at least they have 275 for a motion.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2847 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:52 am

Was there a VDM transmitted with the 15.3 center, without it no go...Rich


Not yet... they JUST made that pass and there hasn't been enough time for the VDM to come out yet.
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#2848 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:53 am

...erm.. am I the only one that does not buy this??
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2849 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:54 am

lester wrote:
weatherwindow wrote:Was there a VDM transmitted with the 15.3 center, without it no go...Rich


there was, look back a page or 2


The latest VDM is from like half an hour ago or so when it was down closer to 15 north
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Re:

#2850 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:54 am

meriland23 wrote:...erm.. am I the only one that does not buy this??

I am. Track wise it's pretty similar to the Euro. Of course we need to wait another 48 hours before the picture is clear enough. More sampling from the G-IV jets are needed anyway.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2851 Postby wxman76 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:55 am

meriland23 wrote:...erm.. am I the only one that does not buy this??
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I wouldn't buy it if they paid me.
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#2852 Postby Texashawk » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:56 am

And still no watches for Jamaica.
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Re:

#2853 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:57 am

Texashawk wrote:And still no watches for Jamaica.

Not in the cone.
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#2854 Postby Shuriken » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:57 am

-- So this means that 16.1N is going to be fed into the next round of models, right?

:double:
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#2855 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:57 am

It better turn to the north quick like if that is going to verify.
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#2856 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:58 am

According to that map, its currently moving West and its supposed to make that immediate curve? Lol. Doubt it.
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#2857 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:58 am

I see they went with the Hurricane Hunters findings of 999.6 mb (rounded up to 1000) but just couldn't quite commit to the center fix they gave them.
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#2858 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:58 am

okay guys, did we misread the recon coordinates or something? They did down it by .8 degrees, but this advisory is still north almost a whole degree.
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Re: Re:

#2859 Postby Texashawk » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:59 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Texashawk wrote:And still no watches for Jamaica.

Not in the cone.


True. That said, that is a very sketchy cone.
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#2860 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:59 am

Well, at least they acknowledged that the WNW movement wasn't happening.

My guess, is they'll stair step down to the right center coordinates next advisory.
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