ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050414
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120805
040500 1635N 07132W 8433 01610 0156 +155 +111 123041 042 027 003 03
040530 1635N 07134W 8429 01612 0158 +155 +114 122042 042 027 003 00
040600 1635N 07136W 8430 01611 0158 +155 +118 120043 044 028 002 00
040630 1635N 07138W 8429 01613 0157 +157 +105 121046 047 026 003 00
040700 1635N 07140W 8430 01612 0155 +162 +076 121048 049 027 002 00
040730 1636N 07143W 8432 01608 0153 +165 +064 121048 049 028 003 00
040800 1636N 07145W 8429 01612 0147 +175 +048 123049 049 028 003 00
040830 1636N 07147W 8429 01611 0148 +174 +045 124047 049 027 003 00
040900 1636N 07149W 8428 01613 0150 +171 +039 125046 047 028 002 00
040930 1636N 07151W 8432 01608 0151 +168 +061 123047 047 027 001 00
041000 1636N 07153W 8430 01610 0151 +164 +082 120047 047 029 002 00
041030 1636N 07155W 8433 01606 0148 +167 +081 116048 049 031 003 00
041100 1636N 07157W 8432 01605 0146 +165 +121 112043 048 032 003 00
041130 1636N 07159W 8430 01606 0144 +163 +142 112042 042 031 004 00
041200 1636N 07201W 8430 01608 0146 +159 +142 110040 043 032 003 00
041230 1637N 07203W 8429 01605 0148 +150 +150 110038 039 032 004 01
041300 1637N 07205W 8431 01605 0141 +165 +144 111041 041 031 003 00
041330 1637N 07207W 8428 01607 0139 +167 +141 109042 043 030 004 00
041400 1637N 07209W 8430 01605 0138 +167 +142 110042 043 029 003 00
041430 1637N 07211W 8429 01606 0139 +165 +142 108041 042 029 003 00
$$

[Cyclenall]

Looking like final advisory later based on surface conditions. Starting to remind me of Lili in 2002 after the shear let up it was still so disorganized and opened to a wave, but restrengthened again later (which i believe many of the models are still forecasting, at least to some degree, after it passes Jamaica)

Are you saying that the final advisory is coming soon? Didn't understand what you meant by "final advisory later".

I think he is saying "Stick a fork in it, its done."

[wkwally]

Looking like final advisory later based on surface conditions. Starting to remind me of Lili in 2002 after the shear let up it was still so disorganized and opened to a wave, but restrengthened again later (which i believe many of the models are still forecasting, at least to some degree, after it passes Jamaica)

Are you saying that the final advisory is coming soon? Didn't understand what you meant by "final advisory later".

IMO I think it is a little to soon to be saying that the NHC will post a final advisory
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS.

[littlevince]

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050423
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 39 20120805
041500 1637N 07213W 8431 01602 0140 +163 +143 110045 046 029 004 00
041530 1637N 07216W 8432 01601 0139 +164 +142 113048 049 030 003 00
041600 1637N 07218W 8429 01602 0140 +159 +146 114050 050 031 003 00
041630 1637N 07220W 8430 01600 0140 +159 +148 114051 051 031 003 00
041700 1637N 07222W 8432 01600 0143 +154 +150 113051 052 031 002 00
041730 1637N 07224W 8429 01601 0135 +164 +141 114051 052 029 004 00
041800 1638N 07226W 8429 01601 0131 +173 +134 114047 049 033 003 00
041830 1638N 07228W 8432 01599 0130 +173 +134 114048 049 032 003 00
041900 1638N 07230W 8429 01600 0130 +173 +135 114048 048 031 003 00
041930 1638N 07232W 8426 01602 0130 +171 +135 115049 050 032 003 00
042000 1638N 07235W 8431 01598 0129 +173 +136 115048 050 033 003 00
042030 1638N 07237W 8429 01600 0130 +172 +138 115047 048 033 003 00
042100 1638N 07239W 8433 01596 0133 +168 +139 115048 048 033 002 00
042130 1638N 07241W 8427 01600 0131 +168 +141 112047 049 032 004 03
042200 1637N 07242W 8426 01601 0126 +175 +142 112045 045 033 002 00
042230 1636N 07244W 8429 01598 0127 +173 +139 112046 046 034 001 00
042300 1634N 07245W 8427 01600 0125 +174 +139 112046 047 032 004 00
042330 1633N 07246W 8429 01598 0124 +175 +137 113047 047 035 003 00
042400 1632N 07247W 8430 01595 0126 +174 +136 111046 047 036 002 00
042430 1630N 07248W 8430 01595 0126 +173 +135 110046 047 037 003 00
$$

[Shuriken]

I don't think I've ever heard of a storm burst -80c somewhere in the Caribbean and then go on to completely croak in the absence of any appreciable shear or by plowing into land.

[littlevince]

[tolakram]

Ah ha. Finally it looks like a north south pass.

Let's end this thing and go home.

Of course a perfectly healthy LLC might be out there somewhere, reformed in all the chaos.

[ozonepete]

Looking like final advisory later based on surface conditions. Starting to remind me of Lili in 2002 after the shear let up it was still so disorganized and opened to a wave, but restrengthened again later (which i believe many of the models are still forecasting, at least to some degree, after it passes Jamaica)

Are you saying that the final advisory is coming soon? Didn't understand what you meant by "final advisory later".

I think he is saying "Stick a fork in it, its done."

LOL, yeah I know what he's saying. I just want to hear him say it straightforward on the record so we can quote him later tomorrow.

[brunota2003]

I saw a couple 51s and a 52 on the last set...so far the 50 to 54 is winning it would seem!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050433
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 40 20120805
042500 1629N 07248W 8430 01594 0125 +174 +135 111046 046 038 001 00
042530 1627N 07248W 8433 01591 0124 +170 +135 113047 047 038 003 00
042600 1626N 07248W 8428 01596 0125 +170 +136 113048 048 039 002 00
042630 1624N 07248W 8431 01591 0125 +168 +137 111046 048 037 003 00
042700 1623N 07248W 8429 01595 0126 +165 +149 110043 045 036 003 00
042730 1621N 07249W 8429 01593 0123 +169 +157 111042 044 037 004 00
042800 1620N 07249W 8428 01595 0126 +165 +155 110043 043 035 003 00
042830 1618N 07250W 8430 01591 0123 +170 +155 107042 043 034 003 00
042900 1617N 07250W 8431 01593 0124 +170 +158 106040 041 033 004 00
042930 1615N 07251W 8431 01591 0122 +170 +156 104041 041 034 003 00
043000 1614N 07252W 8430 01590 0122 +166 +157 103040 041 034 003 00
043030 1612N 07252W 8429 01591 0123 +165 +158 101040 040 034 004 00
043100 1612N 07252W 8429 01591 0120 +166 +161 099039 040 035 003 00
043130 1609N 07253W 8430 01588 0119 +160 +160 098037 038 035 004 01
043200 1607N 07254W 8434 01582 0117 +170 +170 102034 037 033 004 01
043230 1606N 07255W 8426 01589 0115 +170 +170 103035 036 033 004 01
043300 1605N 07255W 8433 01582 0115 +170 +170 104037 038 035 004 01
043330 1603N 07256W 8430 01583 0115 +170 +170 104038 038 035 004 01
043400 1602N 07256W 8430 01582 0115 +160 +160 105039 039 034 004 01
043430 1600N 07257W 8429 01583 0112 +170 +170 111039 040 034 004 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

There is something shooting out away from the convection on the southern side of what is left of the ball...as it is falling apart.

[fci]

Well this was the last straw (the straw that has broke the camel's back so to speak), season cancel. I'm sick and tired of garbage and every time there is an interesting TC maybe on the horizon, it craps out and does nothing (opens up into a wave!?). I knew it had to slow down quickly and turn wnw and because it didn't, these are the results: crap. Ernesto is cursed and so is the tropics worldwide currently. I posted I wouldn't be interested unless this became a hurricane and I should have stuck by that. Burned again. Then there is the El Nino which will then usher the crescendo of "weak sauce" (even the Epac quit in the middle of an amazing streak) which is when I stop monitoring the tropics. Enjoy the mediocrity until 2013...will the rubber band snap back then?


Ah, it is posts like these that make S2K so entertaining!
And I used to get all worked up over them and then get in trouble for being sarcastic and getting on my soapbox about Storms and damage and get so serious followed by suspension, blah, blah, blah.
No, not anymore!
A fun post as I watch people get frustrated by the ebbs and flows of the tropics and surely tomorrow if Ernesto strengthens, there will be frantic posts in the other direction.
Thanks, posts like these make the time go by!!!!

[fci]

But they certainly are allowed to Drink and Post!!!!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050443
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 41 20120805
043500 1559N 07257W 8429 01582 0110 +160 +160 111040 041 034 004 01
043530 1558N 07258W 8430 01579 0109 +160 +160 112039 041 034 003 01
043600 1556N 07258W 8429 01579 0107 +160 +160 115039 040 033 003 01
043630 1555N 07259W 8429 01578 0108 +170 +170 115041 042 034 003 05
043700 1554N 07259W 8425 01583 0106 +170 +170 115040 041 /// /// 05
043730 1554N 07258W 8433 01574 0110 +160 +160 116042 043 034 003 01
043800 1556N 07257W 8433 01577 0108 +160 +160 118043 043 036 003 01
043830 1557N 07257W 8431 01579 0107 +170 +170 116041 043 034 002 01
043900 1558N 07256W 8430 01580 0108 +160 +160 115040 041 035 002 01
043930 1600N 07256W 8430 01582 0110 +160 +160 112042 042 034 002 01
044000 1601N 07255W 8428 01585 0111 +160 +160 109042 043 034 002 01
044030 1603N 07255W 8430 01582 0110 +169 +167 109040 040 034 004 00
044100 1604N 07254W 8429 01583 0110 +168 +162 109041 042 035 004 00
044130 1605N 07254W 8428 01584 0112 +166 +160 111042 042 033 003 00
044200 1607N 07253W 8430 01583 0113 +170 +159 111040 042 034 002 00
044230 1608N 07253W 8431 01584 0115 +160 +160 113040 040 033 004 01
044300 1610N 07252W 8429 01585 0119 +160 +160 111041 041 033 004 01
044330 1611N 07252W 8426 01590 0115 +168 +162 111039 041 034 002 00
044400 1612N 07251W 8428 01589 0113 +172 +158 115040 041 035 002 00
044430 1614N 07251W 8433 01583 0114 +175 +156 114042 042 034 002 03
$$
;

[wkwally]

feel that this is some reorganization of the system. I am sure that the NHC is right on

sorry forgot to post disclamer
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS.

[Kingarabian]

Guys I have to go home and get some dinner. Someone take over, thanks!!

[littlevince]

they turned back, leaving ?

[Hammy]

Recon did not even bother returning to the center, and seems to be headed back--it looks like it's pretty much a done deal at this point--I would be highly surprised if Ernesto remains classified as a tropical system, at least for the next 24-36 hours or so.

disclaimer: personal opinion and not official forecast

[brunota2003]

Interesting that they turned around...maybe they saw something on their radar they wanted a better angle at? It's all yours, Dave! I'm busy getting my butt kicked on COD and checking in here