ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Thanks Kingarabian! Enjoy the evening out there on the island!!! Sunrise in Portugal, evenings starting in Hawaii....and I'm falling asleep in Indiana...welcome to the various timezones of the world. Will finish this mission out now.

[wkwally]

if it does die I will be very happy as the last advisory had it coming to my front door. But I am not going to let my guard down till it is compleatly dead

[Dave]

Interesting that they turned around...maybe they saw something on their radar they wanted a better angle at? It's all yours, Dave! I'm busy getting my butt kicked on COD and checking in here

LOL

[tolakram]

Where are you located? You can put your location as part of your profile so we can all see it.

[petit_bois]

Bone Yard claims another!

[wkwally]

Where are you located? You can put your location as part of your profile so we can all see it.

Brownsille, TX

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050453
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 42 20120805
044500 1615N 07250W 8432 01584 0113 +175 +153 116040 042 029 004 03
044530 1614N 07249W 8429 01588 0113 +175 +152 112038 038 /// /// 03
044600 1613N 07250W 8427 01590 0111 +175 +151 109039 040 033 003 00
044630 1612N 07251W 8431 01585 0112 +174 +157 109037 039 034 003 00
044700 1611N 07253W 8429 01588 0114 +170 +157 104038 039 036 002 00
044730 1610N 07254W 8432 01584 0118 +160 +160 106039 040 034 003 01
044800 1608N 07255W 8426 01589 0114 +169 +159 104039 041 034 002 00
044830 1607N 07255W 8431 01584 0113 +172 +155 105040 041 033 002 00
044900 1606N 07256W 8428 01587 0111 +171 +156 104039 041 032 003 00
044930 1604N 07257W 8433 01580 0109 +173 +158 104038 040 034 005 00
045000 1603N 07257W 8429 01585 0111 +171 +162 107037 039 034 003 00
045030 1602N 07258W 8429 01583 0111 +170 +161 108039 040 034 003 00
045100 1600N 07258W 8429 01583 0113 +160 +160 106040 040 033 003 01
045130 1559N 07259W 8430 01582 0108 +170 +168 104038 039 033 003 00
045200 1557N 07259W 8429 01582 0105 +170 +167 105037 037 033 003 00
045230 1556N 07300W 8429 01580 0105 +170 +165 105039 040 034 001 00
045300 1555N 07300W 8429 01580 0106 +170 +166 106039 040 034 003 00
045330 1553N 07301W 8429 01579 0107 +160 +160 108038 039 036 002 01
045400 1552N 07301W 8430 01578 0111 +160 +160 108039 039 034 002 01
045430 1550N 07302W 8430 01578 //// +155 //// 111038 039 035 004 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

There is something shooting out away from the convection on the southern side of what is left of the ball...as it is falling apart.

I'm tempted to call it an outflow boundary...but I know no one here likes that word!

[mcheer23]

UKMET south again,.

CMC out within the next 15 min.
HWRF about 30 min same with GFDL

[wkwally]

Well off to bed, will be watching the next advisory in the morning.

[littlevince]

Ernesto is at this time (05z) in a region with colder waters.
Let's wait to see what happens in the next 24/48 hours when he comes back to water much warmer and has already released from the negative influence to inflow from land/south american coast line.

[ozonepete]

Recon did not even bother returning to the center, and seems to be headed back--it looks like it's pretty much a done deal at this point--I would be highly surprised if Ernesto remains classified as a tropical system, at least for the next 24-36 hours or so.

disclaimer: personal opinion and not official forecast

What are your reasons for saying that, such as current and forecasted mid-level water vapor, SSTs, upper level conditions? Just curious.

[mcheer23]

Ernesto going through the warmest waters in 12-24 hours

[Shuriken]

[b] Well this was the last straw (the straw that has broke the camel's back so to speak), season cancel. I'm sick and tired of garbage and every time there is an interesting TC maybe on the horizon, it craps out and does nothing (opens up into a wave!?).

Well...you had to know coming in that only about 0.5% (wild-ass guess) of Invests are going to result in a major hurricane that scares land.

If you think you have it miserable now as a storm freak looking back fondly on 2005 and 2006, imagine getting David and Frederick in 1979 and Allen (early) in 1980, and then nothing major-scary for three years until Alica. -- I'm sure there are longer and more boring stretches of nothing exciting recently, but that's the one I remember.

(Peeps in Brazil be wondering how many centuries it'll be before another "Hurricane Catalina".)

[wkwally]

just looked at the water vaper image and it looks as if it is going into some dry air. I do think that once it goes through this dry air and into warmer waters it will develop rather quick into a hurricane. IMO
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Some people are killing Ernesto too soon IMO, if the conditions are that good in the Central and Western Caribbean why would it die? and even if he opens up to a wave today it could re generate with those favorable conditions. I think Ernesto will recover from this disorganization trend, it's just a question of time.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050503
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 43 20120805
045500 1549N 07302W 8430 01577 0106 +170 +170 117039 040 036 002 01
045530 1548N 07303W 8429 01578 0105 +170 +170 119037 039 038 002 01
045600 1546N 07303W 8430 01576 0103 +170 +170 121038 039 036 002 01
045630 1545N 07304W 8433 01573 0102 +170 +170 123039 040 037 002 01
045700 1544N 07304W 8431 01574 0102 +170 +170 122040 040 037 002 01
045730 1543N 07305W 8429 01578 0103 +170 +170 121039 040 036 003 01
045800 1541N 07305W 8430 01576 0103 +170 +170 119036 039 039 004 01
045830 1540N 07306W 8429 01578 //// +162 //// 121033 034 039 004 01
045900 1539N 07307W 8425 01582 //// +155 //// 118033 033 039 006 01
045930 1537N 07307W 8433 01573 //// +154 //// 123034 035 039 006 01
050000 1536N 07308W 8428 01577 0100 +170 +170 126033 034 038 006 01
050030 1535N 07309W 8433 01568 0094 +170 +170 130031 033 040 004 01
050100 1533N 07310W 8422 01577 0092 +170 +170 131029 030 040 005 01
050130 1532N 07311W 8432 01569 //// +166 //// 133032 033 041 005 01
050200 1531N 07312W 8429 01571 0091 +180 +180 134033 034 041 004 01
050230 1530N 07313W 8429 01571 0091 +180 +180 136032 033 042 002 01
050300 1528N 07314W 8429 01569 0087 +180 +180 138033 034 043 001 01
050330 1527N 07315W 8432 01566 0085 +180 +180 138034 035 043 003 01
050400 1526N 07316W 8429 01568 0087 +170 +170 135034 035 043 001 01
050430 1525N 07317W 8429 01568 0088 +180 +180 132032 034 042 009 01
$$
;

[Hammy]

Recon did not even bother returning to the center, and seems to be headed back--it looks like it's pretty much a done deal at this point--I would be highly surprised if Ernesto remains classified as a tropical system, at least for the next 24-36 hours or so.

disclaimer: personal opinion and not official forecast

What are your reasons for saying that, such as current and forecasted mid-level water vapor, SSTs, upper level conditions? Just curious.

Aside from the fact that there is does not appear to be good evidence of a low level circulation to start with, I think it will probably remain weak for another 12-24 hours given this, along with the fact that it seems its proximity to South America along with high forward speed may be significantly restricting inflow (i have seen this happen before), water temperatures (as someone else showed earlier) are not optimal right now, and the forward speed seems to be preventing it as well from remaining vertically stacked. But given the models (which have been forecasting this to happen for days) and more favorable conditions ahead, I think it is likely this may be a temporary phase (as I pointed out similarities with Lili in 2002.)

just my opinion, and not an official forecast.

[Dave]

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Means have Ernesto in the BOC by Friday Evening..