ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[senorpepr]

Recon not showing a perfectly shaped LLC despite a very impressive eastern quadrant, recon looks like they've pulled up to try and locate the center. There is a wind shift though it is weak. I guess we'll see what recon shows next time.

Absolutely... impressive strengthening in the NE-E side, but the central circulation is still very awkward. If this circulation got its act together, we could have some serious strengthening. It'll be interesting to see what recon finds around the 09Z NHC position.

[KWT]

Recon has dropped a dropsonde into that region with the wind shift, so that will give us some surface information of what is going on.

1st to 3rd pass motion of 305 according to recon, given the profile and the 1-2nd pass motion, no reason to doubt that they are tracking the main LLC each fix.

[Air Force Met]

Looks like Isaac has slowed way down?

The centers are becoming stacked. Looks to me from the last pass that the FL center and the 850 center are now stacked and at about 15.4 / 70.1. That apparent NW motion in the vortex fixes will also stop. That was the FL center catching up to the sfc center. They should now start moving 285 or so.

Now that they are stacked...hold on to your seatbeats.

OK...going fishing.

[dexterlabio]

so no relocation still? is that ok for them to disregard that data from the recon mission saying that it is far south of the supposed center?

[meriland23]

@ 6:55 am et, this thing looks closer to columbia than hisp..

[Shuriken]

aight, so is 310 its assumed motion? Cause this looks to be nothing but west to me looking at current loop

recon and visible the only sure thing to look at, IR not real good unless you have an eye..thanks for all of your hard work posting on isaac, you have been a real trooper

Shortwave is where it's at for spotting fine details at night: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[dexterlabio]

wow i chose to stay up all night and forever just to check on this. .

[meriland23]

aight, so is 310 its assumed motion? Cause this looks to be nothing but west to me looking at current loop

recon and visible the only sure thing to look at, IR not real good unless you have an eye..thanks for all of your hard work posting on isaac, you have been a real trooper

Shortwave is where it's at for spotting fine details at night: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

that thing is crawwwwwling

[KWT]

Looks like Isaac has slowed way down?

The centers are becoming stacked. Looks to me from the last pass that the FL center and the 850 center are now stacked and at about 15.4 / 70.1. That apparent NW motion in the vortex fixes will also stop. That was the FL center catching up to the sfc center. They should now start moving 285 or so.

Now that they are stacked...hold on to your seatbeats.

OK...going fishing.

Nicely summed up, the slower motion is simply an illusion, as you can see from recons fixes. Steering currents do suggest something around 285-290 is more reasonable, but who knows. All I know is motion in the last 3hrs is roughly 305 based on recon...that could easily be out though given the first fixes probably didn't clock the true center.

[senorpepr]

Now that NOAA 42 is flying through the storm, they are placing dropsondes roughly every 100 km. That'll help identify the circulations below 700 hPa, specifically the surface circulation.

[meriland23]

you guys probably dont know the current coordinates huh, at least longitude?

[bevgo]

16.1 and 70

[meriland23]

bet JB will still say its going to the EC, heck, if it were 4 inches from SW TX coast, he would probably still say that it'll hit E FL

[Blown Away]

bet JB will still say its going to the EC, heck, if it were 4 inches from SW TX coast, he would probably still say that it'll hit E FL

I would be disappointed w/ him if he flopped track idea now although in another 24 hours if Isaac has followed the NHC forecast track he will have to give up his E of SFL track IMO.

[Caribwxgirl]

I'm still not seeing the promised nw or wnw movement per satellite. I pray this is not my worst nightmare confirmed. No one here is preparing for a storm.

[senorpepr]

NOAA 42 placed a dropsonde near 16.1N 70.0W and found a surface pressure of 998 hPa. This is well N of the VDMs from the USAFR mission and is the location where NHC placed the center.

[Portastorm]

Cut the JB comments please or warnings will be issued for violating Board rules.

And now ... back to Isaac ...

[meriland23]

NOAA 42 placed a dropsonde near 16.1N 70.0W and found a surface pressure of 998 hPa. This is well N of the VDMs from the USAFR mission and is the location where NHC placed the center.

So what does this mean?

[senorpepr]

NOAA 42 placed a dropsonde near 16.1N 70.0W and found a surface pressure of 998 hPa. This is well N of the VDMs from the USAFR mission and is the location where NHC placed the center.

So what does this mean?

It continues to confirm what NHC mentioned in their 09Z discussion:

WHILE THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED SURFACE CENTER LOCATION... DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

[perk]

I'm still not seeing the promised nw or wnw movement per satellite. I pray this is not my worst nightmare confirmed. No one here is preparing for a storm.

You are under a tropical storm watch.