ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

So...did recon just decide to go surfing or what?

[Dave]

So...did recon just decide to go surfing or what?

Just flying back and forth for awhile. No vdm's or dropsondes for the past 2 passes.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050513
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 44 20120805
050500 1524N 07319W 8428 01567 //// +159 //// 135025 030 043 013 01
050530 1523N 07320W 8436 01561 0087 +170 +170 135020 021 044 011 01
050600 1522N 07321W 8426 01569 0090 +170 +170 136019 020 039 008 01
050630 1520N 07322W 8433 01563 0089 +170 +170 140019 020 029 006 01
050700 1519N 07323W 8429 01569 0089 +170 +170 139018 019 022 004 01
050730 1518N 07324W 8432 01566 0085 +182 +178 134016 018 014 003 00
050800 1517N 07325W 8429 01569 0085 +184 +174 126013 015 016 002 03
050830 1516N 07327W 8430 01568 0084 +185 +171 124012 013 013 003 00
050900 1515N 07328W 8433 01565 0083 +185 +172 126011 011 013 002 00
050930 1513N 07329W 8426 01571 0086 +180 +174 128010 011 015 001 00
051000 1512N 07330W 8429 01568 0086 +170 +170 131009 010 013 003 01
051030 1511N 07331W 8430 01566 0086 +178 +174 142009 009 011 002 03
051100 1510N 07332W 8428 01568 0086 +178 +173 143008 009 012 001 00
051130 1509N 07333W 8429 01568 0085 +180 +174 142009 010 006 003 00
051200 1508N 07334W 8430 01567 0085 +180 +175 136008 009 003 003 00
051230 1506N 07336W 8429 01568 0084 +183 +176 130008 009 007 002 00
051300 1505N 07337W 8428 01571 0080 +192 +166 138007 007 008 002 00
051330 1504N 07338W 8430 01568 0079 +195 +162 147004 007 010 002 00
051400 1503N 07339W 8430 01568 0080 +195 +161 104003 003 008 002 00
051430 1502N 07340W 8428 01573 0080 +195 +162 085004 005 009 002 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[ozonepete]

Aside from the fact that there is does not appear to be good evidence of a low level circulation to start with, I think it will probably remain weak for another 12-24 hours given this, along with the fact that it seems its proximity to South America along with high forward speed may be significantly restricting inflow (i have seen this happen before), water temperatures (as someone else showed earlier) are not optimal right now, and the forward speed seems to be preventing it as well from remaining vertically stacked. But given the models (which have been forecasting this to happen for days) and more favorable conditions ahead, I think it is likely this may be a temporary phase (as I pointed out similarities with Lili in 2002.)

just my opinion, and not an official forecast.

Ok, thanks for clarifying. Then it seems you don't really think the last advisory is coming soon. I sure don't, just based on what you just said there.

[Shuriken]

just looked at the water vaper image and it looks as if it is going into some dry air.

The subsidence zone is sliding out of the way:

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050523
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 45 20120805
051500 1501N 07341W 8432 01568 0081 +195 +159 090003 005 012 001 03
051530 1459N 07342W 8428 01572 0083 +191 +158 018000 002 013 000 00
051600 1458N 07343W 8429 01571 0085 +187 +163 147002 002 009 001 00
051630 1456N 07344W 8429 01569 0087 +182 +167 147003 004 008 002 00
051700 1455N 07344W 8429 01571 0085 +188 +159 155002 003 004 002 00
051730 1453N 07345W 8432 01568 0086 +187 +158 151001 002 005 002 00
051800 1452N 07345W 8429 01572 0086 +190 +146 293001 002 006 002 00
051830 1450N 07346W 8430 01571 0086 +189 +143 307002 002 005 003 00
051900 1449N 07347W 8430 01571 0088 +186 +146 311002 002 012 001 00
051930 1447N 07347W 8428 01574 0089 +188 +139 312001 002 014 001 00
052000 1446N 07348W 8429 01573 0089 +186 +156 356001 002 010 001 00
052030 1444N 07348W 8430 01572 0090 +182 +163 312002 003 010 002 00
052100 1443N 07349W 8429 01573 0092 +170 +170 310001 002 013 002 01
052130 1441N 07350W 8429 01574 0094 +179 +165 276000 001 010 003 00
052200 1440N 07350W 8430 01574 0096 +170 +170 257001 003 011 003 01
052230 1438N 07351W 8430 01574 0095 +170 +170 293001 003 011 003 01
052300 1437N 07352W 8429 01577 0096 +170 +170 299000 002 008 003 01
052330 1435N 07352W 8433 01572 0098 +170 +170 009002 003 010 003 01
052400 1434N 07353W 8429 01575 0097 +175 +173 032004 005 012 001 00
052430 1432N 07353W 8430 01575 0097 +170 +170 053005 006 009 002 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

So...did recon just decide to go surfing or what?

Just flying back and forth for awhile. No vdm's or dropsondes for the past 2 passes.

Yeah I was expecting one...

[Dave]

[JamesCaneTracker]

Latest Recon reached the new center! Wind shift clearly found!

[brunota2003]

Is that a 300? Do my eyes deceive me? A west wind? WE FOUND THE GRAIL!!! Too bad it is only 2 knots and falls under the category of "light and variable"

[mcheer23]

CMC 00Z shifts north. Near TX/MX border

[Rgv20]

0zCMC has Ernesto approaching the Mexican Coast by Friday Evening..

[brunota2003]

The problem is that the winds were 3 knots and less...and by definition...winds 5 knots or less are usually considered "light and variable"...so not sure if that really counts. They could go back through in 10 minutes and those winds be totally different, or gone.

[Hammy]

did it open and start reforming now?

just when I think its doing one thing, it starts doing something else (as the story goes from the start)

[Dave]

Looks like a new center?....blew up that last picture some...

[AJC3]

Is that a 300? Do my eyes deceive me? A west wind? WE FOUND THE GRAIL!!! Too bad it is only 2 knots and falls under the category of "light and variable"

Not to mention that the directional shift is all the way down at 14.9N, a full 0.5 degrees south of the 03Z initial position.

[JamesCaneTracker]

The problem is that the winds were 3 knots and less...and by definition...winds 5 knots or less are usually considered "light and variable"...so not sure if that really counts. They could go back through in 10 minutes and those winds be totally different, or gone.

Well you have to admit it's the most west winds they have found this whole mission pretty much... Maybe they are weak but if it's a new center just starting to develop they would be weak!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050533
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 46 20120805
052500 1431N 07354W 8429 01577 0098 +177 +163 044004 006 006 003 00
052530 1429N 07355W 8426 01579 0097 +179 +153 042004 005 007 002 00
052600 1428N 07355W 8429 01575 0095 +183 +147 034004 004 011 002 00
052630 1426N 07356W 8432 01573 0094 +185 +143 031004 004 009 002 00
052700 1424N 07357W 8429 01574 0093 +184 +150 051004 004 008 002 00
052730 1423N 07357W 8429 01575 0097 +176 +172 059004 005 007 002 00
052800 1421N 07358W 8430 01575 0096 +176 +172 046005 006 008 001 00
052830 1420N 07359W 8429 01575 0095 +180 +161 052005 006 006 002 00
052900 1418N 07359W 8430 01574 0097 +177 +165 038004 005 006 002 00
052930 1417N 07400W 8430 01575 0096 +177 +172 051006 007 010 001 00
053000 1415N 07400W 8430 01574 0098 +176 +168 050005 006 006 002 00
053030 1414N 07401W 8430 01574 0097 +177 +163 049006 006 007 002 00
053100 1412N 07402W 8432 01572 0096 +177 +160 032004 006 005 002 03
053130 1411N 07401W 8417 01588 0096 +170 +170 056005 007 /// /// 05
053200 1411N 07359W 8440 01563 0099 +170 +170 091004 007 013 002 01
053230 1412N 07358W 8418 01586 0096 +170 +170 111003 005 021 010 01
053300 1412N 07356W 8435 01567 0096 +170 +170 089004 006 019 008 01
053330 1412N 07354W 8429 01577 0096 +170 +170 092002 003 007 002 01
053400 1413N 07353W 8430 01575 0096 +179 +168 131002 003 006 002 00
053430 1413N 07351W 8429 01577 0098 +175 +170 172004 005 005 002 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

052100 1443N 07349W 8429 01573 0092 +170 +170 310001 002 013 002 01
052130 1441N 07350W 8429 01574 0094 +179 +165 276000 001 010 003 00
052200 1440N 07350W 8430 01574 0096 +170 +170 257001 003 011 003 01
052230 1438N 07351W 8430 01574 0095 +170 +170 293001 003 011 003 01
052300 1437N 07352W 8429 01577 0096 +170 +170 299000 002 008 003 01
052330 1435N 07352W 8433 01572 0098 +170 +170 009002 003 010 003 01

Did Recon land? Since when was there a runway up there in the sky? Those are some pretty calm winds.