ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

NOAA 42 placed a dropsonde near 16.1N 70.0W and found a surface pressure of 998 hPa. This is well N of the VDMs from the USAFR mission and is the location where NHC placed the center.

Pretty much confirms we have two circulations as well still and its still not stacked...despite having a more impressive eastern quadrant and a stronger looking circulation.

[rockyman]

I noticed on that dropsonde, the winds were ENE at 23 knots...It would seem the center is somewhat south of 16.1N...perhaps the competing centers will "meet in the middle" somewhere around 15.8?

[rockyman]

16.0/70.3 from NHC at 7am

[cycloneye]

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ISAAC IS A LITTLE
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 70.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[meriland23]

NHC new advisory dropped it by .1 degree (16.0N and 70.3 W) moving west at 15mph

[meriland23]

8am NHC path



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[Caribwxgirl]

I'm still not seeing the promised nw or wnw movement per satellite. I pray this is not my worst nightmare confirmed. No one here is preparing for a storm.

You are under a tropical storm watch.

Well I just watched the news and they said we are not officially under a tropical storm watch but the met service will keep an eye on the system

[tolakram]

I always ponder why so many amateurs are so quick to doubt the NHC when time after time they prove to be the best hurricane forecasters on the planet. The NHC 5am discussion was a good one, described the situation perfectly, and now recon is confirming it.

Some review of the rules.

- NHC and pro met bashing is NOT tolerated. Jabs, jokes, and veiled insults included.

- Posting pictures of tracks with official logos on them is NOT allowed. You need to remove all official logos when posting your own forecast tracks.

[Lane]

I'm still not seeing the promised nw or wnw movement per satellite. I pray this is not my worst nightmare confirmed. No one here is preparing for a storm.

You are under a tropical storm watch.

Well I just watched the news and they said we are not officially under a tropical storm watch but the met service will keep an eye on the system

WTNT64 KNHC 241027
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
630 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

AT 630 AM EDT...1030 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

[wxman57]

It's going to have to take a sharp right turn to hit Haiti. Center is well south of the 06Z model tracks.

[tgenius]

Weatherbug is expecting rain pretty much all weekend for Miami so as it stands now it looks to be more a rain event than anything else around here.. the keys may end up with a bit more of wind on the projected path.

Assuming the LLC AND MLC finally do stack, is RI a real possibility given water temps and current shear?

[Lane]

I may be wrong but on the NHC site there is a statement update that says Jamaica is under a TS Watch. However that was posted at 630am. I don't think it would have been dropped that fast unless a mistake.

[Air Force Met]

NOAA 42 placed a dropsonde near 16.1N 70.0W and found a surface pressure of 998 hPa. This is well N of the VDMs from the USAFR mission and is the location where NHC placed the center.

So what does this mean?

It continues to confirm what NHC mentioned in their 09Z discussion:

WHILE THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED SURFACE CENTER LOCATION... DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

I would add that with a ENE wind at 23 kts at the sfc...and a 998 pressure...we probably have a sfc center down near the 700mb center...near 15.8 / 70 and a pressure closer to 996.

It's about to go...

[wxwatcher1999]

It's going to have to take a sharp right turn to hit Haiti. Center is well south of the 06Z model tracks.

i agree it better start turning north now...i still say west of haiti closer to tip of yucatan

[Caribwxgirl]

You are under a tropical storm watch.[/quote]
Well I just watched the news and they said we are not officially under a tropical storm watch but the met service will keep an eye on the system[/quote]


WTNT64 KNHC 241027
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
630 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

AT 630 AM EDT...1030 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.[/quote]

Thanks clearly our newscasters need to sort themselves out.

[Steagle]

I live 60 miles north of Santo Domingo....last rains that came thru here were at 1 PM yesterday.
Bright sunshine...
mostly clear skies this morning

[KWT]

I would add that with a ENE wind at 23 kts at the sfc...and a 998 pressure...we probably have a sfc center down near the 700mb center...near 15.8 / 70 and a pressure closer to 996.

It's about to go...

Agreed, whilst the circulation isn't perfect and still doesn't have that great of a shape, when your getting 50kts winds in the SE quadrant, its pretty clear that something must be up.

Going to need to gain some decent northward motion soon if its to hit the higher ground of Haiti...

[rockyman]

Comparing the first visible loop this morning to last night's last visible loop, Isaac's circulation has become much better defined...no longer does it look "fragile" (like it might open up into a wave). Plus the outflow on the western side is becoming impressive (note the fanning of the high clouds south of Jamaica).

[Blown Away]

NHC has Isaac moving at 15mph, IMO that is a little generous. Looks much slower than that IMO.

[tolakram]

Morning Visible



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