ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Plenty of recon readings of 100kts+ winds at flight level:

184700 3951N 07336W 8430 01127 9627 +118 +113 070100 101 055 005 00
184730 3951N 07339W 8421 01136 9629 +110 +110 069100 102 058 004 01
184800 3951N 07342W 8432 01128 9628 +118 +117 069101 102 056 005 00
184830 3951N 07345W 8427 01134 9634 +110 +110 067101 104 056 006 01
184900 3952N 07348W 8427 01134 9634 +110 +110 066102 104 056 007 01
184930 3952N 07350W 8431 01131 9636 +110 +110 064101 102 056 005 00
185000 3952N 07353W 8429 01134 9638 +111 +111 064103 105 057 006 00
185030 3952N 07356W 8427 01137 9641 +100 +100 062103 105 057 003 01
185100 3953N 07359W 8428 01140 9646 +100 +100 060103 104 057 003 05
185130 3952N 07402W 8419 01149 9650 +100 +100 058103 105 /// /// 05
185200 3950N 07403W 8429 01140 9645 +100 +100 058100 101 055 007 01
185230 3949N 07402W 8433 01128 9639 +100 +100 058099 100 056 008 01

What is the reduction for this flight? What does this support at the surface?

[ROCK]

RECON finding 105 knots flight level winds at 850MB....doesnt take much to get that down to the surface in gusts....

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 291855
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
300 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 73.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[artist]

winds already sustained at mid-40s in NYC....funneling through the large building probably make this worse.....that crane is snapped at the boom...just hanging there hundreds of feet above the city.

I thought Bloomberg said all construction sites were checked by the city, and deemed secured?

I saw it last night on the web cam and couldn't believe it was there.

[IntheEye]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

Yes, that's what I was referring to (not very clearly) earlier - low tide and much further south of NYC that earlier feared, so better at low tide than high...

Frank

I'm not sure what you're getting at because earlier forecasts (since yesterday at least) were calling for Sandy to hit extreme Southern NJ (a little north of Cape May). In terms of location, forget how fast Sandy is moving but focus on her direction...which is still NW according to the latest advisory. Unless she decides to head more WNW things are looking bad for NYC. And OzonePete who has been pretty spot-on had this to say not long ago:

This is the worst case for the entire Jersey shore, NYC and southern Long Island. It's locked in now. Eye should come in somewhere from Atlantic City to Long Beach Island. We just had some really high gusts here in western Brooklyn. Good lord I can't imagine what it's going to be like a few hours from now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

Live video of Crane collapse in Manhattan....

http://www.cbsnews.com/2718-201_162-195 ... ive-video/

[KWT]

Those are amazing FL winds being recorded by recon, must be tempting for the NHC to upgrade it...

[Crostorm]

http://www.nyharborwebcam.com/

[FutureEM]

Live video of Crane collapse in Manhattan....

http://www.cbsnews.com/2718-201_162-195 ... ive-video/

Thanks, scary stuff.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think there is going to be some incredible backlash against the NHC in the coming weeks for not issuing Hurricane/TS watches/warnings across the NE USA. They rolled the dice big time on this one, and lost.

[jhpigott]

CNN Weather Center ‏@CNNweather
JUST IN: Nearly 300,000 customers are WITHOUT power in 7 states where Hurricane #Sandy is having an impact. NJ has the most at 92,000.

[ozonepete]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Predicting landfall near or over Cape May, NJ...probably around 4 or 4:15 pm EDT.

Bru, looks like more 6PM a little north of there.

[tolakram]

latest

[HurrMark]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Predicting landfall near or over Cape May, NJ...probably around 4 or 4:15 pm EDT.

Bru, looks like more 6PM a little north of there.

Agreed...it is 85 miles from land, so if it continues at 28 mph, that means a 6 PM landfall.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Predicting landfall near or over Cape May, NJ...probably around 4 or 4:15 pm EDT.

Bru, looks like more 6PM a little north of there.

I was just using radar for a rough guess, so the center probably isn't exactly where I thought it was. Thanks! Very soon, either way. Water levels going back up at the Battery, which means they will be on the NJ as well...either way, all those areas are about to get swamped...again, and worse.

[ozonepete]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

Yes, that's what I was referring to (not very clearly) earlier - low tide and much further south of NYC that earlier feared, so better at low tide than high...

Frank

Just to clarify some points:
Low tide was at 2PM, tides are rising now and peak at 8PM.
Eye will come ashore around 6PM, not 4:30PM.

[cycloneye]

CANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
300 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 73.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Nate-Gillson]

I hope nobody is on that crane or did they already abandon it?

[ozonepete]

There's nobody up there.

[ozonepete]

Large branches getting ripped off here now in Brooklyn.