ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

They didn't for Beryl, which made it to 70mph and had a more concentric look at landfall. Not saying they won't issue it though, we will have to see.

When they found 70mph for Beryl, it was hours from landfall. Debby still has 2 days (at least) before striking.

[jlauderdal]

NWS Webinar streaming here (Quality is bad)

http://www.rickeystokesnews.com/

anyone watch it? learn anything we dont already know?

[Jevo]

NWS Webinar streaming here (Quality is bad)

http://www.rickeystokesnews.com/

anyone watch it? learn anything we dont already know?

Not really... Maybe the only new info that I picked up was the that highest potential for storm surge impact will be tomorrow during high tide in the big bend area

[artist]

NWS Webinar streaming here (Quality is bad)

http://www.rickeystokesnews.com/

anyone watch it? learn anything we dont already know?

they are talking about it stalling for 24 hours and having another burst over the center possibly during that time.

[brunota2003]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

Recon also found large patches of winds in the 70+ knot range (at flight level). The highest I saw was 78 knots (using a 0.8 reduction factor yields a 63 knot surface wind). Judging by the lack of convection on the western side, 0.8 might be a little too high...with winds closer to 55 or 60 knots. If convection builds up, especially on the western side, Debby could easily become a hurricane...so I believe that, yes, Hurricane Watches need to be hoisted.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Pearl River]

Looking at the WV imagery, does it look like the high is beginning to move in? Of course, this is from the eyes of a non-pro.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[northjaxpro]

Another very vulnerable area for coastal flooding is the Cedar Key area as well. I remember how badly that area was effected by storm surge during Elena in 1985. Hopefully, Debby won't be nearly as severe as that for that area.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PALMDALE...
NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LA BELLE...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LA BELLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LA BELLE...
MUSE...
PALMDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[FutureEM]

Mark this live webcam if Debby decides to landfall near Steinhatchee

http://www.steinhatchee.com/steinhatchee-river-webcam/

[DIwestender]

The west end of Dauphin Island has to be near the top with regard to flooding concerns. The main road out there is already flooded and vacationers have been asked to leave. This is going to get very interesting!

[AdamFirst]

Is Debby drawing energy/new bands from the Yucatan Channel?

[summersquall]

A major change to the Debby's forecast track will be coming with the next advisory from the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. Latest indications have Debby making landfall in Florida between Apalachicola and Cross City Monday night.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... al-c/66806

[wkwally]

I do not know if anyone else noticed this but is there some kind of reason that Mississippi is not included in the warnings. Maybe I am wrong but La and Al are in the warning but Mississippi is not.

[bamajammer4eva]

If I heard right on the Webinar, the bridge to St George Island is closed and they are hoping for a lull to get ppl who want to leave off the island??

Damage reports

Event: 0 TROPICAL STORM
Source: broadcast media
Remark: received pictures of damage to old st. george island bridge.

Event: 0 TROPICAL STORM
Source: broadcast media
Remark: trees down along highway 98 west of mexico beach.

[ROCK]

The NHC discussion (Stewart) on why they went with the western solution was right on and with merit. To say otherwise is insulting since they were going off guidance at that time like all of us were doing. You had the majority of the globals pointing that way so really a no brainer to ditch the GFS at that time.

This was confirmed by just about every weather media I was able to access as well so lets not get carried away with "MIGHTY GFS" banter.


Personally, I think the GFS (Maybe) got it right for all the wrong reasons. It wasnt the center relos or the sheared mess that it was seeing, it was the trof that was dragging it out to the NE or it was giving birth to Ernesto that weakened the ridging.....so before you all GFS huggers get all worked up into a frenzy about how wonderful the GFS is the EURO still is at that top in verification the last what oh say 8 years now. That is a fact.

[FutureEM]

Nobody has the rest of the Euro past 72 hours? I heard it does some strange things inland.

[wkwally]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

Recon also found large patches of winds in the 70+ knot range (at flight level). The highest I saw was 78 knots (using a 0.8 reduction factor yields a 63 knot surface wind). Judging by the lack of convection on the western side, 0.8 might be a little too high...with winds closer to 55 or 60 knots. If convection builds up, especially on the western side, Debby could easily become a hurricane...so I believe that, yes, Hurricane Watches need to be hoisted.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So does this mean that Debby could become a hurricane as early as today , tonight, or tomorrow

[rockyman]

After landfall in the western Florida Pandhandle, the 12z Euro brings Debby inland across Mobile and Baldwin Counties in southern Alabama, and then westward into southeastern Mississippi. If this curvature to the west starts BEFORE landfall, we could be looking at a significantly stronger system. This track is reminiscent of Elena from 1985, which raked the west end of Dauphin Island as it moved WNW to an eventual landfall on the MGC




Edit: If the 12z Euro came to pass, it would be very similar to the 11am NHC update (NE then NW)...except a little farther inland.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

Steve Lyons used to mention on TWC when he was the tropical expert that Apalachee bay has the highest surge potential anywhere in the atlantic basin. you can get a huge water rise in that area. anyone remember how St Marks was inundated from Dennis in 05?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Could some of you promets chime in on when(if) you think Debby wll start to fire some good convection over the center?