ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11501
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3021 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:13 am

Looks like Ernie is taking a bit longer than I thought shaking off the effects of the interaction of the 200mb PV anomaly.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

His vorticity column is still not quite stacked vertically yet.

A couple of things going for him are an anticyclone directly overhead and a better infeed of high theta-e air in the boundary layer as seen on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8shrZ.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

AMSU is showing an interesting "ridging" type of anomaly at 550mb.

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/2012/ ... 10_ch5.gif

Somehow the core is being spread out at this altitude.

The effect shows up pretty well on this analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208050111

Hard to tell at this point when things will shape up.

Most likely, if a hot tower fires, quick latent heating of the upper troposphere will snap Ernie's core back.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3022 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:18 am

Ernesto, so far, has failed to impress me. Its deceiving looks and sudden, long-lived weakening trends are just very boring to look at. It is just procrastinating from becoming a hurricane. However, in a way this is good because it is very near to several landmasses.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#3023 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:15 am

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 5, 2012 4:56 am ET
:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html

ERNESTO

- Current/future intensity: Ernesto has been sending mixed messages, possessing some impressive characteristics on satellite imagery, yet aircraft recon has been finding a central pressure that isn't particularly low or dropping; and models are split as to whether there'll be much strengthening. The storm would become a hurricane if what it has going for it wins out, and we'll have to watch for signs of quick intensification, but at least for now that's not yet happening.

- Current/future track: Ernesto continues making a beeline, just north of due west at a quick rate of speed. Given that movement, and its current location, and the "synoptic" pattern currently and in the near future, that confirms the bogusness of hurricane model runs that were bringing the center up across western Cuba into the eastern Gulf not far from Key West. At this point, a track directly into the Yucatan seems inevitable. The question then becomes where exactly -- up toward Cancun, or down in Belize, or somewhere in between. That matters not only for folks there, but for what happens thereafter. If the storm takes the more southern route, it'd spend a lot of time over land weakening, and then barely get back over water in the Bay of Campeche. With a track across the peninsula farther north, it'd still weaken over land but would emerge over the Gulf, and there'd be a possibility of the ridge/trough pattern next week tugging Ernesto farther north from there.

- In the meantime: Ernesto's sphere of influence is large enough that even though the center passed hundreds of miles south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it has swiped those islands with bands of heavy showers. The next land area closest to the projected path of the storm is Jamaica, which will get swiped by downpours and gusty winds.
0 likes   

Shuriken

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3024 Postby Shuriken » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:15 am

Janie2006 wrote:Good to see the mighty AFM around these parts! 8-)

Clearly these aren't ideal conditions for Ernie...if he doesn't stop this Cannonball Run business he's not going to be doing much of anything. IOW, the system must slow down.
Iris was moving almost 50% faster than Ernesto, and held together.
0 likes   

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3025 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:18 am

Ernie doesn't look so hot.
0 likes   

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3026 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:26 am

I'm the optimist, but is Ernesto even a TS now?
0 likes   

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#3027 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:31 am

WHere's recon right now?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3028 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:41 am

Plane didn't seem to find an LLC last night, and the buoy it passed (to the north of according to NHC track) didn't show a wind shift to the SW or W. Could well be an open wave now. Just got a visible sat pic. Might be a little swirl near 15.2N/75.8W - well west of any convection.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3029 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:44 am

Well, the breakdown should confirm the weakness predicted by the models and keep it west. Too much dry air I guess. Those in front of it aren't complaining.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#3030 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:44 am

Not here very long this morning, need someone to do obs and graphics.

000
URNT15 KNHC 050919
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 01 20120805
091030 1742N 06448W 0160 00000 0162 +270 +218 360000 000 /// /// 03
091100 1742N 06448W 0160 00000 0162 +270 +217 360000 000 /// /// 03
091130 1742N 06448W 0159 00000 0162 +270 +217 360000 000 /// /// 03
091200 1742N 06448W 0161 00000 0162 +270 +216 360000 000 /// /// 03
091230 1742N 06448W 0162 00000 0162 +270 +216 360000 000 /// /// 03
091300 1742N 06448W 0161 00000 0162 +270 +216 360000 000 /// /// 03
091330 1742N 06448W 0159 00000 0160 +266 +216 360000 000 /// /// 03
091400 1742N 06448W 0160 00000 0161 +265 +215 360000 000 /// /// 03
091430 1742N 06448W 0160 00000 0161 +265 +215 360000 000 /// /// 03
091500 1742N 06448W 0158 00000 0160 +265 +215 360000 000 /// /// 03
091530 1742N 06448W 0157 00000 0158 +265 +215 360000 000 /// /// 03
091600 1742N 06448W 0154 00000 0155 +265 +214 360000 000 /// /// 03
091630 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0147 +265 +214 360000 000 /// /// 23
091700 1742N 06449W 0149 00018 0169 +265 +214 360000 000 /// /// 03
091730 1742N 06449W 0145 00020 0170 +265 +213 360000 000 /// /// 03
091800 1742N 06449W 0141 00020 0167 +265 +213 360000 000 /// /// 03
091830 1742N 06449W 0143 00021 0169 +264 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
091900 1742N 06449W 0144 00023 0170 +265 +212 360000 000 /// /// 03
091930 1742N 06449W 0141 00021 0167 +264 +211 360000 000 /// /// 03
092000 1742N 06449W 0143 00021 0168 +265 +211 360000 000 /// /// 03
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 050929
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120805
092030 1742N 06449W 0142 00021 0167 +265 +210 090003 008 /// /// 03
092100 1742N 06448W 0161 00016 0157 +262 +209 091013 020 /// /// 03
092130 1742N 06447W 9874 00245 0149 +249 +210 095021 022 /// /// 03
092200 1742N 06446W 9646 00446 0151 +228 +211 095021 022 /// /// 03
092230 1742N 06444W 9126 00925 0150 +200 +200 100025 026 /// /// 05
092300 1742N 06443W 8810 01243 //// +182 //// 099023 024 /// /// 05
092330 1742N 06442W 8612 01438 //// +171 //// 104022 023 /// /// 05
092400 1741N 06441W 8349 01692 //// +179 //// 111019 021 /// /// 05
092430 1740N 06442W 8060 02001 //// +170 //// 108020 021 /// /// 05
092500 1739N 06444W 7875 02200 //// +157 //// 110021 021 /// /// 05
092530 1739N 06446W 7631 02462 //// +141 //// 117023 024 /// /// 05
092600 1739N 06448W 7384 02742 //// +125 //// 119025 025 /// /// 05
092630 1738N 06450W 7191 02965 //// +108 //// 119026 026 /// /// 05
092700 1738N 06452W 6995 03193 //// +093 //// 126026 028 /// /// 05
092730 1738N 06454W 6808 03420 //// +082 //// 127026 028 /// /// 05
092800 1738N 06456W 6647 03617 //// +068 //// 125023 025 /// /// 05
092830 1738N 06458W 6479 03826 //// +051 //// 131022 023 /// /// 05
092900 1737N 06500W 6309 04041 //// +033 //// 129022 022 /// /// 05
092930 1737N 06502W 6150 04248 //// +018 //// 128020 022 /// /// 05
093000 1737N 06504W 5991 04456 //// +002 //// 132018 019 /// /// 05
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 050939
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 03 20120805
093030 1736N 06506W 5835 04666 //// -014 //// 134015 016 /// /// 05
093100 1736N 06508W 5695 04861 //// -030 //// 130012 014 /// /// 05
093130 1736N 06510W 5570 05037 //// -039 //// 115011 011 /// /// 05
093200 1736N 06512W 5466 05185 0274 -042 //// 117012 012 /// /// 05
093230 1735N 06514W 5353 05348 0282 -044 //// 136009 011 /// /// 05
093300 1735N 06516W 5238 05520 0291 -054 //// 129008 009 /// /// 05
093330 1735N 06518W 5125 05690 0301 -063 //// 131006 007 /// /// 05
093400 1735N 06520W 5016 05865 0315 -071 //// 146008 009 /// /// 05
093430 1734N 06522W 4910 06031 0325 -082 //// 146010 010 /// /// 05
093500 1734N 06524W 4808 06195 0335 -083 //// 111008 009 /// /// 05
093530 1734N 06526W 4714 06349 0345 -092 //// 080006 007 /// /// 05
093600 1734N 06528W 4647 06458 0350 -099 //// 103003 006 /// /// 05
093630 1733N 06530W 4570 06589 0358 -106 //// 065002 003 /// /// 05
093700 1733N 06532W 4518 06677 0364 -113 //// 051004 005 /// /// 05
093730 1733N 06534W 4459 06775 0367 -120 //// 041005 006 /// /// 05
093800 1733N 06536W 4395 06886 0373 -127 //// 027005 006 /// /// 05
093830 1732N 06538W 4344 06974 0379 -130 //// 028005 007 /// /// 05
093900 1732N 06540W 4281 07086 0385 -131 //// 189001 003 /// /// 05
093930 1732N 06542W 4228 07181 0392 -137 //// 197004 005 /// /// 05
094000 1732N 06544W 4177 07271 0396 -146 //// 199007 008 /// /// 05
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 050949
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 04 20120805
094030 1731N 06546W 4139 07346 0401 -153 //// 191007 008 /// /// 05
094100 1731N 06548W 4098 07418 0404 -160 //// 188008 009 /// /// 05
094130 1731N 06550W 4049 07506 0409 -165 //// 187010 011 /// /// 05
094200 1731N 06552W 4015 07571 0413 -165 //// 184009 010 /// /// 05
094230 1730N 06554W 3978 07642 0418 -169 //// 183007 008 /// /// 05
094300 1730N 06557W 3942 07710 0423 -173 //// 181006 006 /// /// 05
094330 1730N 06559W 3919 07755 0426 -177 //// 175006 006 /// /// 05
094400 1730N 06601W 3922 07747 0424 -180 //// 181007 007 /// /// 05
094430 1729N 06603W 3922 07743 0421 -180 //// 182007 008 /// /// 05
094500 1729N 06605W 3925 07736 0418 -180 //// 182009 009 /// /// 05
094530 1729N 06608W 3923 07736 0417 -180 //// 181009 009 /// /// 05
094600 1728N 06610W 3923 07736 0416 -180 //// 184009 009 /// /// 05
094630 1728N 06613W 3925 07732 0415 -179 //// 183009 009 /// /// 05
094700 1728N 06615W 3923 07733 0415 -180 //// 183009 009 /// /// 05
094730 1727N 06618W 3926 07728 0414 -180 //// 182009 009 /// /// 05
094800 1727N 06621W 3926 07730 0413 -179 //// 178009 009 /// /// 05
094830 1727N 06623W 3926 07730 0413 -179 //// 180009 009 /// /// 05
094900 1726N 06626W 3926 07730 0413 -160 -160 176008 008 /// /// 05
094930 1726N 06628W 3926 07730 0414 -160 -160 169008 009 /// /// 05
095000 1726N 06631W 3926 07730 0414 -170 -170 166008 009 /// /// 05
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 050959
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 05 20120805
095030 1725N 06634W 3926 07731 0414 -170 -170 163008 008 /// /// 05
095100 1725N 06636W 3925 07731 0413 -170 -170 159008 008 /// /// 05
095130 1725N 06639W 3926 07728 0414 -170 -170 163009 009 /// /// 05
095200 1724N 06642W 3925 07731 0414 -170 -170 161008 009 /// /// 05
095230 1724N 06644W 3926 07731 0415 -170 -170 162007 007 /// /// 05
095300 1724N 06647W 3925 07731 0414 -180 -180 166008 009 /// /// 03
095330 1723N 06649W 3925 07731 0414 -178 -182 166009 010 /// /// 03
095400 1723N 06652W 3926 07728 0414 -176 -183 162010 011 /// /// 03
095430 1722N 06655W 3925 07732 0414 -176 -184 163010 011 /// /// 03
095500 1722N 06657W 3925 07732 0414 -175 -185 159009 010 /// /// 03
095530 1722N 06700W 3926 07731 0415 -175 -185 154009 009 /// /// 03
095600 1721N 06703W 3925 07732 0415 -178 -186 154008 008 /// /// 03
095630 1721N 06705W 3926 07730 0414 -175 -187 153007 008 /// /// 03
095700 1721N 06708W 3925 07731 0414 -177 -188 157006 007 /// /// 03
095730 1720N 06711W 3925 07731 0413 -177 -188 158006 007 /// /// 03
095800 1720N 06713W 3926 07728 0412 -175 -188 153008 008 /// /// 03
095830 1720N 06716W 3926 07727 0412 -175 -189 156008 008 /// /// 03
095900 1719N 06719W 3926 07728 0412 -175 -189 164007 008 /// /// 03
095930 1719N 06721W 3925 07730 0412 -175 -189 163008 008 /// /// 03
100000 1719N 06724W 3925 07730 0412 -172 -189 155008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051009
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 06 20120805
100030 1718N 06726W 3926 07728 0413 -174 -189 155008 009 /// /// 03
100100 1718N 06729W 3927 07726 0413 -176 -189 148008 009 /// /// 03
100130 1718N 06732W 3925 07731 0413 -175 -188 136008 008 /// /// 03
100200 1717N 06734W 3926 07728 0413 -175 -188 129009 009 /// /// 03
100230 1717N 06737W 3926 07728 0412 -174 -189 124009 009 /// /// 03
100300 1716N 06740W 3925 07730 0412 -172 -189 109009 009 /// /// 03
100330 1716N 06742W 3926 07728 0413 -174 -189 108009 009 /// /// 03
100400 1716N 06745W 3925 07731 0413 -175 -189 104009 009 /// /// 03
100430 1715N 06748W 3926 07728 0412 -173 -190 105009 010 /// /// 03
100500 1715N 06750W 3925 07730 0412 -167 -190 104011 012 /// /// 03
100530 1715N 06753W 3926 07727 0412 -166 -191 103012 012 /// /// 03
100600 1714N 06756W 3926 07731 0413 -164 -191 113012 013 /// /// 03
100630 1714N 06758W 3924 07731 0413 -165 -191 112011 011 /// /// 03
100700 1713N 06801W 3926 07728 0413 -165 -191 109011 012 /// /// 03
100730 1713N 06804W 3926 07730 0413 -166 -191 103012 012 /// /// 03
100800 1713N 06806W 3925 07731 0412 -165 -191 102013 013 /// /// 03
100830 1712N 06809W 3926 07727 0412 -165 -191 097014 014 /// /// 03
100900 1712N 06812W 3926 07727 0412 -170 -191 096014 014 /// /// 03
100930 1712N 06814W 3925 07731 0412 -173 -191 102014 014 /// /// 03
101000 1711N 06817W 3926 07726 0412 -175 -191 112014 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051019
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 07 20120805
101030 1711N 06820W 3925 07731 0412 -175 -192 116015 015 023 000 03
101100 1710N 06823W 3925 07731 0413 -175 -192 115016 016 023 000 00
101130 1710N 06825W 3926 07729 0413 -175 -193 107016 016 024 000 00
101200 1710N 06828W 3926 07728 0413 -172 -194 100017 017 024 000 00
101230 1709N 06831W 3923 07733 0413 -172 -194 105018 018 024 000 00
101300 1709N 06834W 3925 07731 0413 -173 -195 107020 020 024 000 00
101330 1708N 06836W 3925 07729 0413 -175 -195 107020 020 024 000 00
101400 1708N 06839W 3926 07728 0413 -175 -195 110021 021 024 000 00
101430 1708N 06842W 3925 07733 0414 -174 -195 109021 022 024 000 00
101500 1707N 06845W 3925 07728 0412 -171 -195 108022 022 023 000 00
101530 1707N 06847W 3926 07727 0412 -175 -195 104021 022 022 000 00
101600 1707N 06850W 3926 07728 0412 -175 -195 106021 021 022 000 00
101630 1706N 06853W 3923 07728 0407 -171 -196 110022 022 022 000 00
101700 1706N 06856W 3925 07723 0405 -170 -195 111022 023 023 000 00
101730 1705N 06858W 3925 07723 0405 -170 -195 112022 023 024 000 00
101800 1705N 06901W 3925 07723 0405 -170 -195 112022 022 024 000 00
101830 1705N 06904W 3925 07723 0405 -170 -194 113021 022 024 000 00
101900 1704N 06906W 3923 07725 0404 -171 -194 114020 021 024 000 00
101930 1704N 06909W 3925 07722 0405 -172 -193 114020 021 024 000 00
102000 1703N 06912W 3925 07721 0404 -170 -193 112020 021 024 000 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051029
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 08 20120805
102030 1703N 06915W 3925 07722 0405 -170 -193 112020 021 024 000 00
102100 1703N 06917W 3926 07720 0406 -174 -193 116021 021 024 000 00
102130 1702N 06920W 3923 07725 0405 -175 -193 115021 021 025 000 00
102200 1702N 06923W 3926 07721 0404 -175 -193 112020 020 026 001 00
102230 1701N 06926W 3923 07725 0405 -174 -193 112021 021 027 000 00
102300 1701N 06928W 3926 07720 0404 -174 -194 113020 021 027 001 00
102330 1701N 06931W 3925 07722 0404 -175 -194 114020 020 026 000 00
102400 1701N 06934W 3925 07722 0404 -174 -194 111020 021 027 000 00
102430 1701N 06937W 3925 07721 0404 -173 -194 110020 020 028 000 00
102500 1701N 06939W 3927 07716 0404 -174 -193 111020 021 028 000 00
102530 1701N 06942W 3924 07723 0404 -175 -193 113022 023 028 000 00
102600 1701N 06945W 3926 07717 0403 -175 -193 115025 025 029 000 00
102630 1701N 06948W 3924 07723 0404 -175 -193 114025 025 029 003 00
102700 1701N 06951W 3926 07718 0403 -175 -193 115025 025 028 002 00
102730 1701N 06954W 3926 07721 0404 -175 -194 115026 026 027 000 03
102800 1701N 06956W 3925 07722 0404 -175 -194 115026 026 025 000 00
102830 1701N 06959W 3927 07716 0403 -175 -195 112026 026 024 000 00
102900 1701N 07002W 3925 07721 0403 -175 -196 109026 026 025 000 00
102930 1701N 07005W 3926 07720 0404 -175 -197 110025 025 025 000 00
103000 1701N 07008W 3927 07717 0404 -175 -198 114025 026 025 000 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051039
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 09 20120805
103030 1701N 07010W 3926 07721 0405 -175 -198 113025 026 026 000 00
103100 1701N 07013W 3925 07721 0404 -175 -199 110026 027 026 000 00
103130 1701N 07016W 3926 07718 0405 -175 -199 112027 027 023 000 00
103200 1701N 07019W 3926 07720 0405 -175 -199 116027 028 022 001 00
103230 1701N 07022W 3925 07723 0405 -175 -200 118026 027 024 000 00
103300 1701N 07024W 3925 07722 0404 -177 -200 115026 027 025 000 00
103330 1701N 07027W 3925 07721 0403 -175 -201 114027 027 025 000 00
103400 1701N 07030W 3925 07722 0405 -175 -201 109027 027 026 000 00
103430 1701N 07033W 3926 07720 0404 -175 -205 105028 028 028 000 00
103500 1701N 07036W 3926 07717 0403 -173 -234 105028 028 028 001 00
103530 1701N 07039W 3926 07717 0402 -174 -246 110028 029 029 000 00
103600 1701N 07042W 3926 07718 0402 -170 -249 109029 029 029 000 00
103630 1700N 07044W 3927 07717 0403 -171 -253 109028 029 029 000 00
103700 1700N 07047W 3923 07723 0403 -170 -259 109028 028 029 000 00
103730 1700N 07050W 3927 07715 0403 -167 -264 109028 029 030 000 00
103800 1700N 07053W 3925 07720 0403 -167 -256 106028 028 029 001 00
103830 1700N 07056W 3926 07718 0403 -167 -232 105027 028 028 001 00
103900 1700N 07059W 3926 07717 0403 -166 -208 107027 027 027 001 00
103930 1700N 07101W 3927 07716 0403 -166 -195 109026 027 028 000 00
104000 1700N 07104W 3923 07721 0402 -165 -193 107027 027 027 001 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051049
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 10 20120805
104030 1700N 07107W 3929 07714 0403 -165 -193 112025 027 021 000 00
104100 1700N 07110W 3923 07725 0403 -165 -191 112026 026 023 005 00
104130 1700N 07113W 3927 07716 0403 -166 -187 114028 028 022 007 00
104200 1700N 07116W 3926 07720 0404 -170 -185 111029 030 017 000 00
104230 1700N 07119W 3950 07680 0406 -165 -183 107030 031 030 005 00
104300 1700N 07121W 4009 07565 0399 -154 -181 110030 033 032 013 00
104330 1700N 07124W 4083 07429 0391 -147 -179 104026 028 032 013 00
104400 1700N 07127W 4164 07280 0381 -138 -179 112030 032 028 000 00
104430 1700N 07130W 4249 07126 0371 -127 -178 113034 035 027 001 00
104500 1700N 07133W 4334 06974 0361 -120 -175 111034 035 029 000 00
104530 1700N 07135W 4398 06861 0352 -112 -171 112031 033 029 000 00
104600 1700N 07138W 4448 06768 0343 -110 -168 111030 030 025 001 00
104630 1700N 07141W 4498 06684 0339 -107 -164 105031 032 030 003 00
104700 1700N 07144W 4561 06578 0332 -102 -158 100031 032 042 010 03
104730 1700N 07146W 4611 06489 0326 -092 -153 106039 047 053 023 00
104800 1700N 07149W 4678 06380 0320 -087 -149 101038 046 052 023 00
104830 1700N 07152W 4753 06262 0315 -077 -142 112034 038 045 012 00
104900 1700N 07155W 4900 06028 0305 -064 -136 109036 038 039 002 00
104930 1700N 07157W 5057 05782 0291 -052 -132 109038 039 039 002 00
105000 1700N 07200W 5210 05546 0278 -043 -128 111039 041 036 004 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051059
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120805
105030 1700N 07203W 5356 05324 0262 -031 -121 112036 038 033 004 00
105100 1700N 07205W 5468 05158 0251 -025 -114 117035 036 030 006 00
105130 1700N 07208W 5573 05008 0100 -018 -107 120037 037 031 002 00
105200 1700N 07210W 5669 04870 0107 -012 -100 119040 040 030 001 00
105230 1700N 07213W 5748 04761 0108 -008 -093 118042 043 026 000 00
105300 1700N 07215W 5822 04656 0109 -001 -086 117040 043 027 000 00
105330 1700N 07218W 5905 04545 0111 +005 -079 117039 040 028 000 00
105400 1700N 07220W 5990 04433 0122 +009 -073 118039 040 029 000 00
105430 1700N 07223W 6087 04305 0141 +008 -067 122040 041 029 000 00
105500 1700N 07225W 6162 04205 0148 +008 -061 124038 041 029 002 00
105530 1700N 07228W 6243 04098 0139 +019 -057 125040 041 028 001 00
105600 1700N 07230W 6321 03998 0137 +027 -054 125044 046 024 000 00
105630 1700N 07233W 6401 03898 0134 +036 -050 126047 048 022 000 00
105700 1700N 07235W 6485 03791 0132 +045 -045 127048 048 019 000 00
105730 1700N 07238W 6566 03692 0137 +046 -040 124042 047 018 000 00
105800 1700N 07240W 6649 03588 0146 +047 -034 123038 039 016 001 00
105830 1659N 07242W 6728 03488 0143 +054 -028 125040 041 015 000 00
105900 1659N 07244W 6812 03385 0139 +063 -021 129043 044 014 000 00
105930 1658N 07247W 6901 03282 0141 +069 -014 133044 045 016 000 00
110000 1657N 07249W 6988 03179 0145 +072 -005 133044 044 016 000 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051059
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 11 20120805
105030 1700N 07203W 5356 05324 0262 -031 -121 112036 038 033 004 00
105100 1700N 07205W 5468 05158 0251 -025 -114 117035 036 030 006 00
105130 1700N 07208W 5573 05008 0100 -018 -107 120037 037 031 002 00
105200 1700N 07210W 5669 04870 0107 -012 -100 119040 040 030 001 00
105230 1700N 07213W 5748 04761 0108 -008 -093 118042 043 026 000 00
105300 1700N 07215W 5822 04656 0109 -001 -086 117040 043 027 000 00
105330 1700N 07218W 5905 04545 0111 +005 -079 117039 040 028 000 00
105400 1700N 07220W 5990 04433 0122 +009 -073 118039 040 029 000 00
105430 1700N 07223W 6087 04305 0141 +008 -067 122040 041 029 000 00
105500 1700N 07225W 6162 04205 0148 +008 -061 124038 041 029 002 00
105530 1700N 07228W 6243 04098 0139 +019 -057 125040 041 028 001 00
105600 1700N 07230W 6321 03998 0137 +027 -054 125044 046 024 000 00
105630 1700N 07233W 6401 03898 0134 +036 -050 126047 048 022 000 00
105700 1700N 07235W 6485 03791 0132 +045 -045 127048 048 019 000 00
105730 1700N 07238W 6566 03692 0137 +046 -040 124042 047 018 000 00
105800 1700N 07240W 6649 03588 0146 +047 -034 123038 039 016 001 00
105830 1659N 07242W 6728 03488 0143 +054 -028 125040 041 015 000 00
105900 1659N 07244W 6812 03385 0139 +063 -021 129043 044 014 000 00
105930 1658N 07247W 6901 03282 0141 +069 -014 133044 045 016 000 00
110000 1657N 07249W 6988 03179 0145 +072 -005 133044 044 016 000 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051109
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 12 20120805
110030 1656N 07251W 7073 03081 0146 +078 -001 135043 044 017 000 00
110100 1656N 07253W 7123 03022 0146 +080 -001 135042 043 016 000 00
110130 1655N 07255W 7166 02971 0147 +084 -002 135042 043 018 000 00
110200 1654N 07257W 7212 02917 0149 +085 -001 134042 042 020 000 00
110230 1653N 07259W 7262 02860 0150 +088 +007 134041 042 021 000 00
110300 1653N 07301W 7310 02805 0152 +090 +011 136042 043 020 000 00
110330 1652N 07303W 7357 02751 0151 +091 +015 137041 043 022 000 00
110400 1651N 07305W 7402 02698 0155 +090 +018 134040 041 020 000 00
110430 1651N 07307W 7452 02643 0160 +090 +021 136040 040 020 000 00
110500 1650N 07309W 7499 02591 0161 +090 +024 134040 040 021 000 00
110530 1649N 07311W 7547 02538 0162 +093 +026 136043 045 021 000 00
110600 1649N 07313W 7597 02483 0157 +100 +028 137045 045 020 000 00
110630 1648N 07315W 7645 02428 0152 +106 +030 137046 046 020 000 00
110700 1647N 07317W 7695 02375 0152 +110 +032 138047 047 021 000 00
110730 1647N 07319W 7744 02318 0153 +110 +035 136043 046 023 000 00
110800 1646N 07321W 7793 02265 0156 +109 +038 134040 040 023 000 00
110830 1645N 07323W 7843 02209 0152 +115 +041 134040 041 023 000 00
110900 1644N 07325W 7894 02156 0151 +120 +043 139041 041 024 000 00
110930 1644N 07327W 7933 02113 0150 +121 +045 140041 042 023 000 00
111000 1643N 07329W 7963 02083 0149 +126 +048 140043 044 021 000 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051119
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 13 20120805
111030 1642N 07331W 7996 02046 0145 +130 +050 139045 046 020 001 00
111100 1642N 07333W 8030 02011 0147 +130 +053 138042 044 019 000 00
111130 1641N 07335W 8064 01974 0145 +131 +056 136039 041 018 000 00
111200 1640N 07337W 8098 01938 0148 +128 +059 136036 038 018 000 00
111230 1640N 07339W 8130 01905 0150 +129 +062 136035 035 017 000 00
111300 1639N 07340W 8164 01869 0148 +133 +064 137035 036 018 000 00
111330 1638N 07342W 8198 01833 0146 +136 +066 138035 035 018 000 00
111400 1638N 07344W 8231 01799 0146 +137 +067 139036 036 017 000 00
111430 1637N 07346W 8265 01764 0146 +138 +069 141038 038 016 000 00
111500 1636N 07348W 8298 01731 0148 +140 +071 142039 040 019 000 00
111530 1636N 07350W 8334 01693 0146 +145 +073 142040 040 017 000 00
111600 1635N 07352W 8368 01659 0146 +146 +075 142041 041 018 000 00
111630 1634N 07354W 8401 01627 0145 +150 +076 142041 041 019 000 00
111700 1634N 07356W 8425 01601 0144 +150 +078 141041 042 019 000 00
111730 1633N 07357W 8433 01592 0142 +150 +080 141042 042 019 000 00
111800 1632N 07359W 8432 01591 0142 +150 +082 140041 042 020 000 00
111830 1632N 07401W 8429 01596 0143 +150 +084 140042 042 021 000 00
111900 1631N 07403W 8433 01591 0143 +150 +085 139042 042 021 000 00
111930 1630N 07405W 8428 01595 0142 +150 +086 137044 045 021 000 00
112000 1630N 07407W 8430 01594 0142 +150 +087 136046 046 023 000 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 051129
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 14 20120805
112030 1629N 07409W 8429 01595 0141 +150 +088 135047 048 023 000 00
112100 1628N 07411W 8429 01594 0140 +150 +088 134048 048 023 000 00
112130 1628N 07413W 8433 01588 0138 +150 +089 133047 048 025 000 00
112200 1627N 07415W 8429 01591 0137 +150 +090 130045 046 025 000 00
112230 1626N 07417W 8431 01588 0137 +148 +091 130043 044 024 001 00
112300 1626N 07419W 8430 01588 0137 +145 +092 129043 043 025 000 03
112330 1625N 07420W 8430 01586 0135 +145 +092 131041 043 023 000 03
112400 1623N 07422W 8444 01573 0136 +145 +093 135042 043 024 000 00
112430 1622N 07423W 8425 01590 0135 +145 +094 136043 043 026 000 00
112500 1621N 07424W 8429 01586 0136 +145 +095 136045 046 026 001 00
112530 1620N 07425W 8429 01586 0136 +145 +096 134045 046 027 000 00
112600 1619N 07426W 8431 01584 0135 +144 +097 134043 044 026 000 00
112630 1618N 07428W 8429 01585 0134 +145 +098 132042 042 028 000 00
112700 1617N 07429W 8430 01583 0133 +140 +099 132043 044 028 000 00
112730 1615N 07430W 8429 01585 0133 +140 +100 130044 044 027 001 00
112800 1614N 07431W 8430 01583 0133 +140 +100 130043 044 027 000 03
112830 1613N 07433W 8430 01584 0132 +145 +101 129041 042 027 001 00
112900 1612N 07434W 8432 01581 0134 +141 +102 132043 043 029 001 00
112930 1611N 07435W 8429 01584 0133 +140 +102 132043 044 031 001 00
113000 1610N 07436W 8428 01583 0131 +140 +102 131044 044 033 000 00
$$
;


000
URNT15 KNHC 051139
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 15 20120805
113030 1608N 07437W 8429 01581 0131 +143 +103 131042 044 034 000 00
113100 1607N 07439W 8428 01584 0130 +144 +103 130041 043 034 001 03
113130 1606N 07440W 8433 01579 0125 +153 +103 126038 040 035 000 00
113200 1605N 07441W 8429 01584 0116 +170 +105 131034 035 035 000 00
113230 1604N 07442W 8429 01581 0114 +170 +107 135033 034 035 000 00
113300 1603N 07443W 8429 01581 0113 +169 +110 134032 033 034 000 00
113330 1601N 07445W 8430 01580 0113 +169 +113 133031 032 035 000 00
113400 1600N 07446W 8429 01583 0111 +170 +116 131032 032 036 001 00
113430 1559N 07447W 8428 01583 0115 +168 +119 131031 032 037 000 00
113500 1558N 07448W 8428 01584 0118 +160 +121 127032 032 037 000 00
113530 1557N 07450W 8429 01583 0116 +162 +122 126033 033 037 001 00
113600 1555N 07451W 8432 01580 0120 +160 +121 125034 034 040 002 00
113630 1554N 07452W 8427 01586 0119 +161 +120 124033 034 040 002 00
113700 1553N 07453W 8430 01579 0120 +160 +118 126032 033 039 002 03
113730 1552N 07455W 8429 01583 0120 +158 +118 130030 032 039 001 00
113800 1551N 07456W 8428 01584 0122 +153 +117 127028 030 038 003 00
113830 1550N 07457W 8430 01579 0118 +159 +116 125028 028 038 002 00
113900 1548N 07458W 8429 01581 0117 +161 +115 118027 028 039 001 00
113930 1547N 07459W 8430 01578 0115 +163 +115 117028 028 040 001 00
114000 1546N 07501W 8429 01581 0118 +160 +115 113027 028 040 001 00
$$
;


Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3031 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:45 am

They may wait till 11. Hopefully it is a drought buster.
0 likes   

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3032 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:52 am

Near 45knot winds so far, passes the winds part for a TS.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#3033 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:52 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#3034 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:53 am

Recon showing 43kt winds...Ernie!
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#3035 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:53 am

Wake up recon bums! :)

I need people to do both obs and images, I will be unable to do it soon after 8am.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#3036 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:54 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 051149
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 16 20120805
114030 1545N 07502W 8429 01580 0121 +154 +115 109025 026 039 004 00
114100 1543N 07503W 8433 01579 0114 +169 +113 115024 024 039 003 00
114130 1542N 07505W 8428 01584 0114 +171 +114 117023 025 039 001 00
114200 1541N 07506W 8430 01580 0113 +168 +115 127022 023 038 000 03
114230 1540N 07507W 8427 01583 0115 +164 +117 123025 026 037 000 00
114300 1539N 07508W 8430 01578 0115 +160 +119 121030 031 038 000 00
114330 1537N 07509W 8429 01581 0115 +162 +121 124030 030 040 002 00
114400 1536N 07511W 8428 01583 0113 +165 +122 124028 029 041 001 00
114430 1535N 07512W 8429 01580 0115 +162 +123 122028 030 040 000 00
114500 1534N 07513W 8431 01578 0117 +159 +124 125030 031 039 001 00
114530 1533N 07514W 8429 01578 0111 +165 +124 126030 031 039 001 00
114600 1531N 07515W 8431 01575 0114 +157 +124 129030 032 038 004 00
114630 1530N 07516W 8426 01579 0117 +150 +124 127035 036 042 000 00
114700 1529N 07517W 8430 01574 0112 +158 +123 129036 037 042 001 00
114730 1527N 07518W 8428 01574 0107 +162 +122 133033 035 040 002 03
114800 1526N 07519W 8430 01572 0105 +162 +122 129036 038 040 001 00
114830 1525N 07520W 8430 01570 0101 +168 +122 132030 035 041 000 03
114900 1523N 07521W 8433 01568 0098 +173 +124 135028 030 042 001 00
114930 1522N 07522W 8430 01570 0098 +172 +127 141029 030 041 001 03
115000 1521N 07523W 8428 01572 0097 +170 +129 142026 030 042 001 00
$$
;
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#3037 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:55 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3038 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:56 am

I guess the Caribbean wasn't favorable after all.


No buzzsaw. It wasn't pulling it all in in consolidation last night it was receding.


Yeah, but WX57, this has all the ingredients to rebound quickly.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3039 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:01 am

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Near 45knot winds so far, passes the winds part for a TS.


^ Please read your PM's.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#3040 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:02 am

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:I'm the optimist, but is Ernesto even a TS now?
At the moment, one could certainly analyze what is currently happening and make a case that it may be just a depression. However, we just have to see what Recon finds. Kudos to the major reliable models (GFS and Euro) which accurately forecasted the weakening of Ernesto days in advance. Ernesto may recover to be at best a minimum hurricane upon its approach to the Yucatan or Central America before landfall, weaken, and then emerge in BOC. Ernie will spin up briefly in the BOC befoe landfall somewhere from Tampico, MX to Brownsville maybe as a Cat 1 hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests