ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN MD...WV...AND
PARTS OF WRN VA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 291851Z - 300045Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL
RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2091.html

[ozonepete]

Just to clarify some points:
Low tide was at 2PM, tides are rising now and peak at 8PM.
Eye will come ashore around 6PM, not 4:30PM.

Probably not good news, eh?

Why is everybody focusing on the landfall? The greatest surge not in the core is when the wind is greatest and the direction is perpendicular to the coastline. This should happen as the storm is WSW of NYC, not at landfall. This may actually be worse than landfall at high tide.

But I'm an amateur.

You are right my friend. I was NOT implying that landfall is important or that things will improve right after that. My point is that as Sandy makes landfall the winds will veer from NE to SE over NYC and that is the worst case because SE winds will push the water into NY Harbor. We will then have extreme flooding at high tide at 8PM and water will saty high all night because winds will remain high out of the south and southeast, well after landfall. Hope that clarifies it.

[Tyler Penland]

Just to clarify some points:
Low tide was at 2PM, tides are rising now and peak at 8PM.
Eye will come ashore around 6PM, not 4:30PM.

Probably not good news, eh?

Why is everybody focusing on the landfall? The greatest surge not in the core is when the wind is greatest and the direction is perpendicular to the coastline. This should happen as the storm is WSW of NYC, not at landfall. This may actually be worse than landfall at high tide.

But I'm an amateur.

^This.
Greatest surge for the northern half of Long Island will probably occur between now and landfall, but as the wind shifts directions the southern half of Long Island as well as NJ will see the biggest surge, all at high tide.
Just basic wind vectors.
Speaking of wind, we have had some BIG time gusts here in NE GA this afternoon. Another example of the sheer size of this thing.

[chrisjslucia]

For those of you who wanted to see the crane in NY, one smart person has taken a pic through a telescope and posted it on twitter. The time of 20.01 is UK time.

[SunnyThoughts]

As per Meteorologist Joe Cioffi --------Joe notes an area of 75-100 mph winds on the east and northeast side of Sandy is offshore and moving Northwest heading for Long Island this evening. Tides are going to be high this evening and the flooding will be at record levels south and north shore."

[Sanibel]

Hopefully the steel cables will hold that crane in place and they can cut it off with torches later.

[jaxfladude]

Watching live feed, http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?secti ... id=8860158

Glass breaking in buildings in NYC.

That is not good....got to be a bit unnerving even for the toughest of them New Yorkers.
Prayers to all...

[Hurricane_Luis]

Some pictures








Sources: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20121811 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20119631

[SunnyThoughts]

[jaxfladude]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As per Meteorologist Joe Cioffi --------Joe notes an area of 75-100 mph winds on the east and northeast side of Sandy is offshore and moving Northwest heading for Long Island this evening. Tides are going to be high this evening and the flooding will be at record levels south and north shore."

Wow. So this landfall time may be bad to worse for some. Promets is that right....?

[chrisjslucia]

Hopefully the steel cables will hold that crane in place and they can cut it off with torches later.

Hopefully but maybe not. From the Telegraph newspaper a few minutes ago:

"20.24 (16.24) The crane in Manhattan appears to starting to be fraying in the wind, showering debris on the streets below."

[karenfromheaven]

Brian Norcross is talking about the tropical core now being absorbed into the larger storm. It seems to me that the center of the nor'easter circulation, if you will, is still offshore and will make its own landfall farther up the coast. Maybe it makes sense to consider that circulation on its own, because of the way the winds are following the larger radius.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[r22weiss]

based on the latest satellite, radar, and surface obs, this storm is no longer tropical. the center has been absorbed into the large upper level system.

[jaxfladude]

"GOD BLESS AMERICA"

EDit: Praying for the best for all of those impacted and hoping for calmer seas and weather.

[SevenTreesFarm]

Atlantic County has called all emergency responders back to stations for the duration. No more responses. - http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audi ... &ctid=1771

All units grounded until first light.

[galaxy401]

Hopefully the steel cables will hold that crane in place and they can cut it off with torches later.

Hopefully but maybe not. From the Telegraph newspaper a few minutes ago:

"20.24 (16.24) The crane in Manhattan appears to starting to be fraying in the wind, showering debris on the streets below."

I really hope it doesn't fall onto the nearby constructed building or any building. That will be a catastophe...

[ozonepete]

4PM local NYC reports from NWS:

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

Code: Select all

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-292100-
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK   LGT RAIN  59  57  93 NE24G46   28.69F FOG
LAGUARDIA APRT LGT RAIN  63  58  83 NE47G58   28.67F FOG
KENNEDY INTL   LGT RAIN  60  58  92 NE41G58   28.63F FOG
NEWARK/LIBERTY LGT RAIN  61  58  90 NE43G56   28.66F FOG
TETERBORO      LGT RAIN  61  58  90 N25G45    28.69F FOG
WHITE PLAINS   LGT RAIN  59  55  87 NE25G51   28.75F FOG

[tolakram]

Water still rising rapidly.

saved image


source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/geo.sh ... on=8518750

[CDO62]

based on the latest satellite, radar, and surface obs, this storm is no longer tropical. the center has been absorbed into the large upper level system.

Does this mean that we won't have an official landfall?

[tolakram]

Live rapid scan loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html